20240825-国金证券-保险利差系列报告一_基于日美德利差调控经验-定价调控政策_及时雨_助力缓释利差压力_17页_2mb

中文总结

本报告分析了日本、美国、德国等国家利差损调控政策的经验，并对其应用于中国保险行业作为背景。日本在1991年经历利差损后，通过2次下调评估利率并建立评估利率机制，直至2001年标准利率与市场利率挂钩，2013年险企走出利差损阴影。美国1980年建立动态评估利率机制，2018年通过VM-22法案提升产品利率敏感性。德国2010年利率下行后引入Z准备金制度，2018年优化利率走廊机制以应对准备金压力。

我国保险行业预定利率曾经历高利率时代后回落，2024年9月起传统险产品预定利率降至25%门槛，预计新单通过较快动态调整机制滤除非必要负债成本，叠加当前寿险市场未饱和、保费有望稳健增长，利差损长期风险可控。当前A股保险公司估值分位数低，EV隐含收益率差距大，险企股估值修复可期。

核心建议：重点关注中国平安A/H、中国太保A/H，中国太平H股具备弹性。风险考虑包括长端利率超预期下行、监管趋严及权益市场波动。

英文 Summary Based on Provided Chinese Document

This report analyzes Japan, the U.S., and Germany's interest spread damage control policies, providing a comparative background for the application in China’s insurance industry. In Japan, following the 1991 emergence of interest spread damage, the government made two consecutive reductions to the assessment interest rate, implemented an interest rate mechanism in 1995, which was later refined as market rates continued to decline. Germany introduced Z reserves in 2011 and optimized its interest corridor mechanism in 2018 to alleviate reserve pressure. The U.S., with its dynamic assessment interest rate system established in 1980, enhanced market sensitivity through VM-22 in 2018.

In China, the traditional insurance product interest rate will be adjusted to a 25% cap starting Sept. 2024, with a swift dynamic adjustment mechanism expected to lower new business liability costs. Current market saturation is not reached, and premium sustainability coupled with faster sale-off effects on legacy business may mitigate long-term spread damage risks. Valuation levels show significant discounting, particularly in A-shares, which align with lower embedded value yield assumptions. Insurance stocks may experience valuation recovery.