> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # Chuangxin Industries (2788 HK) Summary ## Core Content Chuangxin Industries (2788 HK) is a company with a focus on aluminum and related products, operating in both China and Saudi Arabia. The company recently hosted a post-results analyst meeting, where key updates were shared regarding its projects and financial performance. Despite a 10% drop in its share price, the report maintains a **BUY** rating with a target price of **HK$32.00**, indicating potential for a 25.4% upside from the current price of **HK$25.52**. ## Key Takeaways - **Saudi Aluminum Project**: - Located in Yanbu, 1,200km from the Persian Gulf. - Construction and logistics have not been disrupted. - Phase one of the project is expected to produce **500kt** and start operations in **1H27**. - Initial production will be ingots, with alloy products (for Apple supply chain and automotive lightweight materials) following in **2H27**. - A 10-year power supply agreement with the Saudi Ministry of Energy has been signed. - Electricity tariff is **US$0.032/kWh**, with heavy oil as the power source. - **All-in production cost** in Saudi is expected to be **US$1,900/t**, **RMB1,000/t** lower than in China. - **Coal Mine Acquisition**: - The coal mine to be acquired has an annual capacity of **6mt**, aligning with the coal demand of Chuangxin's captive coal power plant. - **Capex** required is **RMB3bn**, to be spent between **2H27** and **1H28**. - The mine is expected to commence operations by **end-2028**. - **All-in cost** for coal is expected to be **RMB195/t**. - **Capex Plan**: - In **2026E**, **RMB1.5bn** is budgeted, including **RMB1.2–1.3bn** for renewable power capacity in China. - For the Saudi project, total capex is **US$277mn**, with **US$200mn** already spent and **US$77mn** remaining for **end-2026 or early 2027**. ## Financial Highlights ### Revenue and Earnings Growth | Year | Revenue (RMB mn) | YoY Growth (%) | Adjusted Net Profit (RMB mn) | EPS (RMB) | |------|------------------|----------------|-----------------------------|-----------| | FY24A| 15,163 | 9.8 | 2,056.3 | 1.37 | | FY25A| 18,681 | 23.2 | 2,730.8 | 1.76 | | FY26E| 19,670 | 5.3 | 4,546.5 | 2.19 | | FY27E| 19,956 | 1.5 | 4,845.3 | 2.34 | | FY28E| 20,120 | 0.8 | 5,083.0 | 2.45 | ### Valuation Metrics | Metric | FY24A | FY25A | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | |--------|------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | P/E | 16.3 | 12.7 | 10.2 | 9.6 | 9.1 | | P/B | 26.8 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 2.1 | | Yield | 1.0% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.1% | ## Key Risks - Unexpected removal of capacity cap in China. - Volatility in aluminum and alumina prices. - Power shortages. - Supply chain disruptions. - New project execution risks in Saudi Arabia. ## Earnings Sensitivity - **Aluminum ASP** and **coal cost** significantly impact **2026E net profit**. - A **5% increase** in aluminum ASP leads to an increase in net profit from **RMB3,616mn** to **RMB5,852mn**. - A **5% increase** in coal cost leads to an increase in net profit from **RMB3,428mn** to **RMB5,665mn**. ## Shareholding and Performance - **Cui Lixin** holds **72.3%** of the shares. - **Market Cap**: **HK$38,280.0mn**. - **Share Price Performance** (12-month): - **Absolute**: **32.6%**. - **Relative**: **33.6%**. ## Segment Revenue and Gross Profit | Segment | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | |---------|-----|------|------|------|-------|-------|-------| | Electrolytic Aluminum | 12,882 | 12,502 | 12,884 | 13,622 | 15,757 | 15,284 | 15,131 | | Alumina & other related products | 271 | 977 | 1,850 | 4,417 | 3,239 | 3,964 | 4,246 | | Others | 337 | 335 | 430 | 642 | 674 | 708 | 743 | | **Total** | 13,490 | 13,815 | 15,163 | 18,681 | 19,670 | 19,956 | 20,120 | | Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | |--------|-----|------|------|------|-------|-------|-------| | Gross Profit | 1,737 | 2,030 | 3,469 | 4,116 | 6,924 | 7,044 | 6,864 | | Gross Margin | 13.5% | 16.2% | 26.9% | 30.2% | 43.9% | 46.1% | 45.4% | ## Analyst Recommendations - **BUY** rating is maintained. - **Target Price**: **HK$32.00**. - **CMBI** will host a **NDR conference call** on **23 Mar (14:00 HKT)**. ## Conclusion Despite the recent share price drop, the report maintains a **BUY** rating due to the **limited scale of coal mining business** and **tight supply of aluminum**. The **Saudi project** is progressing well, and the **cost advantages** in **China's renewable power** are expected to support profitability. Investors are advised to consider the **earnings sensitivity** and **valuation metrics** before making investment decisions.