20161114-中国银河国际证券-Another_Round_of_Price_Hikes_in_South_and_East_China__Coal_Prices_Stabilized_after_Long-term_Contracts_Signed_12页_978kb
报告摘要
China Cement Sector Summary
Core Content
The China cement sector experienced a moderate price increase last week, with the nationwide average cement price rising by 0.9% week on week to RMB 316.50/tonne. Regional price hikes were observed in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangdong, Guangxi, Sichuan, and Guizhou, with increases ranging from RMB 20 to 50 per tonne. In contrast, market demand in Northeast China declined significantly due to the winter season, leading to a suspension of construction activities.
Coal prices, which had been rising for 10 months, saw a slight drop last week, with the Bohai-Rim Steam Coal (Q5500K) index falling to RMB 606/tonne, marking the first week-on-week decline since 2016. However, coal prices were still up 61.2% YoY. The stabilization of coal prices was attributed to long-term contracts signed between coal producers and independent power producers (IPPs), which set a base price of RMB 535/tonne, much lower than the current index. The effectiveness of these contracts remains uncertain due to past issues with contract fulfillment.
Cement stocks under coverage rose on average by 8.1%, with Anhui Conch [914.HK] being the best performer, up 13.8%, and CNBM [3323.HK], the weakest, also gaining 5%. The report also includes a valuation table and peer comparison, highlighting various financial metrics including PER, PSR, EV/EBITDA, and net debt/equity ratios for several cement companies.
Key Financial Metrics
| Company | Ticker | Rating | Price (HK$) | Market Cap (US$m) | PER (2015) | PER (2016E) | PER (2017E) | PSR (2015) | PSR (2016E) | PSR (2017E) | EV/EBITDA (2015) | EV/EBITDA (2016E) | EV/EBITDA (2017E) | Net Debt/Equity (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anhui Conch | 914 HK Equity | BUY | 23.30 | 14,592 | 16.8 | 11.3 | 10.6 | 1.45 | 1.30 | 1.24 | 8.8 | 6.7 | 5.7 | (1) |
| CNBM | 3323 HK Equity | HOLD | 4.13 | 2,859 | 29.9 | 10.9 | 8.0 | 0.44 | 0.39 | 0.39 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 9.5 | 221 |
| BBMG | 2009 HK Equity | BUY | 3.04 | 6,601 | 13.8 | 9.3 | 8.2 | 0.70 | 0.66 | 0.63 | 9.6 | 8.3 | 7.2 | 62 |
| CR Cement | 1313 HK Equity | BUY | 3.51 | 2,940 | 11.2 | 12.0 | 9.5 | 0.86 | 0.73 | 0.70 | 9.1 | 7.0 | 6.5 | 62 |
| Simple Average | 17.9 | 10.9 | 9.1 | 0.87 | 0.77 | 0.74 | 9.4 | 8.0 | 7.2 | 86 | ||||
| Weighted Average | 16.8 | 10.9 | 9.6 | 1.10 | 0.99 | 0.94 | 9.1 | 7.5 | 6.6 | 45 |
Peer Comparison
| Company | Ticker | Market Cap (US$m) | PER (2015) | PER (2016E) | PER (2017E) | PBR (2015) | PBR (2016E) | PBR (2017E) | EV/EBITDA (2015) | EV/EBITDA (2016E) | EV/EBITDA (2017E) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anhui Conch | 914 HK Equity | 14,592 | 16.8 | 11.3 | 10.6 | 1.45 | 1.30 | 1.24 | 8.8 | 6.7 | 5.7 |
| CNBM | 3323 HK Equity | 2,859 | 29.9 | 10.9 | 8.0 | 0.44 | 0.39 | 0.39 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 9.5 |
| BBMG | 2009 HK Equity | 6,601 | 13.8 | 9.3 | 8.2 | 0.70 | 0.66 | 0.63 | 9.6 | 8.3 | 7.2 |
| CR Cement | 1313 HK Equity | 2,940 | 11.2 | 12.0 | 9.5 | 0.86 | 0.73 | 0.70 | 9.1 | 7.0 | 6.5 |
| TCC International | 1136 HK Equity | 1,242 | - | 89.1 | 23.9 | 0.50 | 0.49 | 0.47 | 10.0 | 11.5 | - |
| China National Materials | 1893 HK Equity | 847 | 9.2 | 6.8 | 5.0 | 0.37 | 0.37 | 0.33 | 5.7 | 5.3 | - |
| Asia Cement | 743 HK Equity | 398 | - | 19.3 | 10.9 | 0.30 | 0.29 | 0.28 | 6.9 | 7.9 | - |
| West China Cement | 2233 HK Equity | 584 | - | 122.8 | 18.0 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.68 | 8.7 | 6.9 | - |
| Tianrui Cement | 1252 HK Equity | 591 | - | 17.2 | - | 0.53 | - | - | 8.2 | - | - |
Regional Cement Price and Inventory
- Cement Prices: Regional cement prices increased in several areas, with the most notable increases in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangxi. However, in Northeast China, the demand dropped significantly due to winter.
- Inventory Levels: The nationwide average cement inventory level declined slightly to 66%, indicating a tightening supply and increased demand in certain regions.
Clinker Capacity Breakdown
The report provides a detailed breakdown of the clinker capacity distribution across different regions and companies. Anhui Conch and CNBM have significant market shares in East China, with Anhui Conch holding 53.0% in Anhui and CNBM holding 35.4% in Shandong. In South Central China, Guangdong and Guangxi have notable shares, while in Southwest China, Sichuan and Guizhou show significant capacity. The data highlights the regional exposure of each company and their market shares in 2015.
Conclusion
The cement sector in China showed a mixed performance last week, with price increases in some regions and a decline in others. The stabilization of coal prices through long-term contracts may have a limited impact on further cement price hikes. Cement stocks rose in value, with Anhui Conch and CNBM showing strong performance. The report also includes a valuation table and peer comparison, offering insights into the financial health and performance of key players in the sector.
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