2017年全球风险报告（英文版）_76页_11mb

The Global Risks Report 2017 12th Edition Summary

Core Content

The Global Risks Report 2017 12th Edition provides an in-depth analysis of the most significant global risks and trends that are shaping the world in the coming decade. It emphasizes the interconnectedness of these risks and the need for inclusive and cooperative global leadership to address them effectively. The report is a collaborative effort by the World Economic Forum and includes contributions from strategic partners and academic advisers.

Main Risks by Likelihood and Impact

Top 5 Global Risks in Terms of Likelihood (2017)

Top 5 Global Risks in Terms of Impact (2017)

Key Risk Categories

• Economic
• Environmental
• Geopolitical
• Societal
• Technological

Main Trends and Challenges

1. Economic and Social Inequality

• Rising income and wealth disparity is perceived as the most important trend.
• Anti-establishment populism is growing, suggesting that reviving economic growth alone is insufficient.
• Market capitalism needs reform to address the lack of solidarity between different economic strata.

2. Societal Polarization and National Sentiment

• Increasing polarization and national sentiment are top societal risks.
• These trends are fueled by a sense of being left behind by rapid changes in gender, race, multiculturalism, and international cooperation.
• They challenge the legitimacy of political institutions and may amplify other risks if not addressed.

3. Technological Disruption

• The Fourth Industrial Revolution is transforming societies and economies.
• Risks include the failure of systems to manage technological change, the potential for AI to take over decision-making, and the vulnerability of physical infrastructure networks.

4. Global Governance and Cooperation

• There is a growing trend of states withdrawing from international cooperation mechanisms.
• This could lead to a more inward-looking global system, increasing the risk of systemic failures and conflicts.
• The report emphasizes the need for stronger global cooperation to address shared challenges.

5. Environmental Risks

• Environmental concerns are increasingly prominent, with extreme weather events, water crises, and climate change mitigation failures ranked high in both likelihood and impact.
• Environmental risks are strongly interconnected with geopolitical and societal risks, such as conflict and migration.

Key Recommendations and Strategies

• Responsive and responsible leadership is essential to address global risks and promote inclusive development.
• Collaboration across systems, countries, and stakeholder groups is necessary to have a greater societal impact.
• Governance frameworks for emerging technologies like AI and biotechnology need to be developed to manage their risks and opportunities.
• Reforms to market capitalism should focus on long-term thinking and solidarity.
• Revitalizing global economic growth is a priority, especially in the context of a slow recovery and high debt levels.
• Strengthening social protection systems is crucial as traditional employer-backed schemes decline and individuals take on more responsibility for economic and social risks.

Conclusion

The report highlights that the world is at a pivotal moment, with the potential for both risks and opportunities. It calls for a re-evaluation of the global risk landscape and a renewed commitment to international cooperation, inclusive growth, and effective governance of emerging technologies. The findings of the Global Risks Perception Survey (GRPS) are central to the analysis, reflecting the views of a diverse group of stakeholders from various sectors and regions.

The report also underscores the importance of addressing long-term trends such as inequality, polarization, and the rise of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. These trends are not only shaping the risk landscape but also presenting challenges to the stability of societies and economies. The conclusion emphasizes the need for a shift in mindset and policy to ensure a more resilient and cooperative global system.