> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # NIO Inc. (NIO US/9866 HK) Summary ## Core Content NIO Inc. has seen improvements in its financial performance, particularly in gross margin and cost management, which have addressed previous concerns about its operational efficiency. The company's 1Q26 earnings exceeded expectations, driven by a strong gross profit margin (GPM) and effective cost reduction strategies. These improvements suggest that NIO is now better positioned to handle rising raw material costs and is more competitive in the Chinese automotive sector. ## Main Points - **Earnings Performance**: - NIO's 1Q26 revenue grew by 112.2% YoY, slightly below the prior forecast. - GPM reached 19.0%, the highest since 4Q21, surpassing the previous projection by 1.7 ppts. - Operating loss was RMB309mn, and net loss was RMB496mn, both lower than the previously forecasted RMB741mn net loss. - **Cost Management**: - SG&A and R&D expenses were lower than expected, indicating more sustainable cost-cutting measures. - The restructuring efforts since FY25 have led to consistent cost reductions. - The GPM for other revenue reached 20.6%, which was a significant drag in previous quarters. - **New Model Success**: - The ES8 model showed better sales momentum compared to previous models, contributing to improved performance. - NIO is now better positioned than most peers in the sector, especially in the context of rising raw material costs. - **Earnings Forecast Revisions**: - The company's FY26E sales volume is maintained at 0.46mn units. - FY26E GPM is raised by 1.5 ppts, leading to a projected GAAP net loss of RMB1.3bn and non-GAAP operating profit of RMB145mn. - FY27E is expected to see a GAAP net profit of RMB324mn. - **Valuation and Target Prices**: - The rating has been upgraded from Hold to BUY. - Target prices for NIO US and 9866 HK have been raised to US\$7.00 and HK\$55.00, respectively, based on a P/S multiple of 0.9x (up from 0.8x). - Key risks include lower-than-expected sales volume or GPM and a potential sector de-rating. ## Financial Highlights | Metric | FY24A | FY25A | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | |-----------------------|------|------|------|------|------| | Revenue (RMB mn) | 65,732 | 87,488 | 138,656 | 156,917 | 167,288 | | YoY Growth (%) | 18.2 | 33.1 | 58.5 | 13.2 | 6.6 | | Gross Margin (%) | 9.9 | 13.6 | 17.6 | 16.9 | 17.3 | | Net Profit (RMB mn) | (22,657.7) | (15,570.7) | (1,298.9) | 324.5 | 2,529.7 | | Adjusted Net Profit (RMB mn) | (20,381.7) | (12,432.4) | 1,180.0 | 2,904.3 | 5,214.2 | | P/S (x) | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | ## Earnings Revision Comparison | Metric | CMBIGM FY26E | Consensus FY26E | Diff (%) | |-----------------------|-------------|-----------------|----------| | Revenue (RMB mn) | 138,656 | 130,396 | 6.3% | | Gross Profit (RMB mn) | 24,400 | 21,742 | 12.2% | | Operating Profit (RMB mn) | (1,655) | (2,476) | N/A | | Net Profit (RMB mn) | (1,299) | (1,843) | N/A | | Gross Margin (%) | 17.6% | 16.7% | 0.9 ppts | | Operating Margin (%) | -1.2% | -1.9% | 0.7 ppts | | Net Margin (%) | -0.9% | -1.4% | 0.5 ppts | ## Stock Performance | Period | NIO US | 9866 HK | |--------|--------|---------| | 1-mth | -13.1% | -18.4% | | 3-mth | 10.3% | 10.3% | | 6-mth | 0.2% | 0.0% | ## Key Financial Ratios | Ratio | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | |--------------------|----------|----------|----------| | P/S (x) | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | | P/E (diluted) | ns | 317.0 | 41.0 | | P/B | 5.0 | 4.5 | 3.7 | | P/CFPS | 8.9 | 5.0 | 5.4 | ## Analyst Information - **Analysts**: Ji SHI, CFA; Wenjing DOU, CFA; Austin Liang - **Contact Details**: - Ji SHI: (852) 3761 8728; shiji@cmbi.com.hk - Wenjing DOU: (852) 6939 4751; douwenjing@cmbi.com.hk - Austin Liang: (852) 3900 0856; austinliang@cmbi.com.hk ## Disclaimer - This report is not investment advice and should not be relied upon for making investment decisions. - CMBIGM does not provide individually tailored advice and encourages consultation with a professional financial advisor. - The report is intended for distribution to specific clients and may not be reproduced or shared without written consent. - The analysts are not registered with FINRA, and the report is intended for major US institutional investors only. - The report may be subject to different regulations in the UK, US, and Singapore. ## Conclusion NIO Inc. has made significant strides in cost management and GPM, improving its financial standing and market position. The company's performance in 1Q26 has exceeded expectations, and the upgrade to a BUY rating reflects improved outlook. Despite these positive developments, the company still faces risks related to sales volume and sector conditions.