20151015-法国巴黎银行-Mexico__Monthly_Key_Charts_11页_543kb

Mexico: Monthly Key Charts Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a monthly analysis of key economic and financial indicators in Mexico, focusing on foreign investment, international reserves, FX pass-through, labor market performance, and manufacturing sector trends. The report is prepared by BNP Paribas and is intended for professional clients only in certain jurisdictions, with important legal and regulatory disclosures.

Key Economic Indicators

Foreign Ownership of Government Debt

• Total Foreign Debt Holding (as of 10/19/2015): MXN 2093.9 billion

• Change from Prior Week: -2%

• Change from Prior Month: -2%

• Change from Prior Year: +6%

• Cetes (short-term debt): MXN 412.7 billion

  • Change from Prior Week: -6%
  • Change from Prior Month: -13%
  • Change from Prior Year: -25%

• Bonos (long-term debt): MXN 1564.7 billion

  • Change from Prior Week: 0%
  • Change from Prior Month: +2%
  • Change from Prior Year: +20%

• Bondes D: MXN 2.0 billion

  • Change from Prior Week: -12%
  • Change from Prior Month: -22%
  • Change from Prior Year: +46%

• Udibonos: MXN 114.5 billion

  • Change from Prior Week: -1%
  • Change from Prior Month: -6%
  • Change from Prior Year: 0%

International Reserves

• International reserves have dropped by 7% this year due to FX market interventions.

FX Pass-Through and Inflation

• FX pass-through: Small signs of FX pass-through have emerged.
• Inflation: Inflation is at record lows.

Sectoral Performance

Labour-Intensive Services Sector

• The labour-intensive services sector is performing well.

Export-Oriented Industrial Sector

• The export-oriented industrial sector is not showing strong growth.

Manufacturing Exports

• Manufacturing exports growth is nearly flat.
• Oil exports have plunged significantly.

Regional and Global Influences

US Manufacturing Impact

• Weaker US manufacturing is slowing manufacturing growth in Mexico.

Manufacturing Outlooks

• The manufacturing outlooks in both the US and Mexico are deteriorating.

Legal and Regulatory Disclosures

• The report is not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities.
• No liability is accepted for any loss arising from reliance on the report.
• The report is intended for professional clients only in certain jurisdictions, such as the European Economic Area, UK, France, Germany, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Israel, Singapore, Australia, and Brazil.
• BNP Paribas may have a financial interest in entities mentioned and may act as an adviser, manager, or underwriter.
• Information is subject to change and may not be updated.

Jurisdiction-Specific Notes

• UK: Approved for publication by BNP Paribas London Branch.
• France: Supervised by ECB and ACPR.
• Germany: Distributed by BNP Paribas London Branch or Frankfurt Branch.
• Japan: Distributed to certain financial institutions only.
• South Korea: BNP Paribas Securities Korea is registered and regulated.
• Taiwan: Directed only at licensed counterparties.
• Israel: No licence to offer investment advice.
• Singapore: Regulated by MAS under the Banking Act, Securities and Futures Act, and Financial Advisers Act.
• Australia: Directed to Wholesale clients only, licensed under AFSL No. 238043.
• Brazil: Prepared by Banco BNP Paribas Brasil S.A., for informational purposes only.
• South Africa: BNP Paribas Cadiz is an authorised Financial Services Provider.

Conclusion

The report highlights a mixed economic performance in Mexico, with foreign investors reducing their holdings in short-term debt while increasing in long-term debt. The FX market has had a noticeable impact on international reserves, and inflation remains at record lows. The services sector is performing well, but the industrial and manufacturing sectors are facing challenges, particularly due to weaker US manufacturing and a decline in oil exports. Legal and regulatory disclosures emphasize the intended audience and limitations of the report.