> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # Allianz Social Resilience Index 2025 Summary ## Core Content The **Allianz Social Resilience Index (SRI) 2025** evaluates the resilience of 171 economies on a scale from 0 to 100, focusing on economic fundamentals, social cohesion, institutional strength, and external strength. The index highlights the uneven and polarized nature of global resilience, emphasizing how structural inequalities persist and how external shocks, such as energy price increases, can test the resilience of different regions. --- ## Main Points - **Global Resilience Trends**: - The global SRI score increased slightly from 47.4 in 2024 to 47.9 in 2025. - The improvement is modest and masks significant regional disparities. - High-income economies continue to lead with an average score of 70.5, while Africa remains at the lowest with 34.4. - **Regional Performance**: - **Northern Europe** leads the ranking with Finland (84.3), Denmark (83.8), and Iceland (81.4). - **Germany (78.5)**, **France (74.7)**, and **UK (72.9)** are strong performers among advanced economies. - **China (52.5)**, **India (46.8)**, **Mexico (41.3)**, and **Brazil (40.0)** rank significantly lower. - Conflict-affected states like **Lebanon (17.7)** and **South Sudan (11.8)** are at the bottom. - **Country Movements**: - **Sri Lanka** and **India** showed notable improvements (+12.7pts and +7.8pts respectively). - **Brazil** and **Czech Republic** experienced steep declines (-8.7pts and -6.9pts respectively). - A group of advanced economies (Czechia, Hungary, Italy, US, Japan) appears to be caught in a **middle-SRI trap**, characterized by material prosperity but also political polarization and policy volatility. - **Drivers of Social Resilience**: - **Economic fundamentals** are the weakest pillar of resilience globally (43.3), influenced by global growth slowdown and labor market softness. - **Social cohesion** (49.2) is the primary differentiator between advanced and emerging economies. - **Institutional strength** (48.2) has shown limited upward momentum, while **external strength** (54.6) has become the broadest pillar of resilience. - **Long-Term and Medium-Term Trends**: - Emerging Asia has shown the most consistent improvement across all time horizons. - The Middle East and Emerging Europe have seen long-term gains but weakened in the medium term due to geopolitical tensions and institutional pressures. - Latin America has improved over the medium and long term but remains stable in the short term. - High-income economies have consolidated their lead with minimal changes across all horizons. - **Energy Price Shock Impact**: - The conflict in the Middle East and the resulting energy price surge will test social resilience, particularly in **Vietnam, Thailand, Morocco, Tunisia, and Malaysia**, which are in the **red cluster** of low-to-mid resilience with high exposure. - **Moderate-resilience countries** like **Chile, Egypt, Serbia, and South Korea** are better positioned to cushion the impact of temporary energy shocks. - **Europe** is likely to be more affected than the **US** due to higher reliance on imported energy, though **social spending** may help mitigate some effects. --- ## Key Insights - **Social resilience is a key determinant** of macroeconomic performance, capital-market development, and sovereign risk. - **High resilience** correlates with **stronger real GDP per capita growth** and **deeper capital markets**. - **SRI serves as both an early-warning system** and **reform compass** for investors and policymakers. - **Declines in resilience** can be reversed with **institutional credibility**, **reduced polarization**, and **broader opportunities**. - **Short-term fixes** may lead to **gradual erosion** of resilience over time. - **Energy price shocks** amplify **existing structural vulnerabilities**, rather than creating new ones, with **weaker resilience** economies being more vulnerable to **price spikes** and **social pressures**. --- ## Conclusion The **Allianz Social Resilience Index 2025** underscores the **persistent global inequalities** in resilience and the **increasing interplay** between **economic uncertainty** and **political shifts**. The report highlights the importance of **long-term structural reforms** and **policy predictability** in enhancing resilience, especially in the face of **external shocks** such as the **energy price surge**. While some regions show progress, the **middle-resilience trap** remains a significant concern, particularly among **advanced economies**, where **stagnation** and **policy volatility** risk **long-term instability** and **sovereign risk**.