2021-09-14-Credit_Suisse-流媒体直播电子商务成为常态_45页_2mb

Live-Streaming E-commerce Market Analysis

Market Growth:

• Live-streaming e-commerce is experiencing rapid expansion, projected to reach RMB 4.7 trillion by 2023, growing at 70% CAGR from 2020-2023.
• Penetration increased to 27% of e-commerce sales (up from 8% in 2020), driven by consumer acceptance and merchant integration.

Market Dynamics:

• Taobao Live dominates (33% market share in 2023E) due to its integrated ecosystem and supply chain strength.
• Douyin (TikTok) is the fastest-growing platform (40% market share in 2023E), leveraging short video content and high-quality traffic.
• Kuaishou (20% market share in 2023E) benefits from private domain traffic and user trust.

Challenges & Regulation:

• Regulatory measures (e.g., counterfeit product crackdowns) aim to ensure sustainable growth amid concerns over fake transactions and misleading advertising.
• These regulations support long-term health but introduce near-term uncertainty.

Revenue & Margins:

• E-commerce platforms face declining take rates (Taobao/Tmall: ~3.9%) and margins (55-60% adj. EBITA) as new competitors like Douyin and Kuaishou gain market share.
• Douyin offers higher monetization potential (take rate up to 5.3%).

Key Players:

• Taobao Live: Integrated ecosystem, strong supply chain.
• Douyin: Traffic-driven growth, centralized monetization.
• Kuaishou: Private domain focus, lower take rates for merchants.

Regulatory Impact & Future Outlook

• Regulatory focus on compliance aims to promote healthy LS e-commerce growth, potentially leveling the competitive playing field.

Industry Implications

• LS e-commerce reshapes consumer behavior (recommendation-based purchasing).
• It drives competition for traditional platforms (Duocao, JD, PDD) and creates opportunities for intermediaries like MCNs and e-commerce platforms (Douyin, Kuaishou).

Stock Recommendations

• Outperform stocks: Pinduoduo (US$215), JD.com (US$96), Kuaishou Tech (HK$135), Alibaba (US$225).
• Focus on monetization potential, user engagement, and regulatory headwinds.

In Summary:
The LS e-commerce sector is booming, with significant competition among platforms. Regulation is crucial for sustainable growth. Our favorite near-term plays include PDD, JD, and Kuaishou due to their monetization upside and resilience against regulatory risks.