> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # Summary of *Latin America & the Caribbean Economic Update – April 2026: Revisiting Industrial Policy: Strategic Options for Today* ## Core Content The *Latin America & the Caribbean Economic Update – April 2026* provides an analysis of the region's economic situation and explores strategic options for industrial policy in the context of a slow growth environment and evolving global conditions. ## Main Points ### Economic Outlook - **Growth remains subdued**: Regional GDP growth is projected at 2.1% for 2026, slightly below the 2.4% of 2025. - **Country-specific trends**: Argentina is an exception with improved growth expectations due to stabilization and reforms. Other economies like Paraguay, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras show pockets of dynamism, while Brazil and Mexico face slower momentum due to domestic financial constraints and trade policy uncertainty. - **Caribbean dynamics**: Guyana's oil-driven growth is widening the gap with tourism-dependent economies. Jamaica is recovering from a hurricane, and Haiti's future is tied to the success of new security initiatives. ### Macroeconomic Challenges - **Inflation moderation**: Inflation has eased, but central banks remain cautious, especially in services where price stickiness persists due to wage-price dynamics and indexation. - **Fiscal constraints**: High interest payments continue to limit fiscal space, even where primary balances have improved. Public debt ratios remain high, and without stronger growth or fiscal consolidation, returning to pre-2020 levels is unlikely. - **Investment subdued**: Firms are cautious due to global and domestic uncertainty, and real financing conditions are still tight. ### Labor Market and Social Indicators - **Informality persists**: Informality is linked to low education levels, self-employment, and microenterprise activity, limiting access to productivity gains and formal wage growth. - **Poverty and inequality**: Informality and income volatility complicate inequality measurement. Consumption-based metrics are more accurate than income-based ones. Structural labor market issues reinforce the sensitivity of poverty reduction to economic slowdowns. ### Trade and Policy - **Trade agreements as development tools**: LAC economies can benefit from trade agreements by expanding market access, reducing concentration risks, and supporting diversification. - **Trade policy uncertainty**: Trade policy uncertainty remains high, and firms are hesitant to make cross-border investments or supply chain commitments. - **Framework differences**: Centralized frameworks like customs unions promote internal integration, while more flexible ones allow broader, more diversified partnerships. The credibility of these frameworks is crucial for investment decisions. ## Key Strategic Options for Industrial Policy ### Industrial Policy Reemergence - **Industrial policy back in focus**: Stagnation in growth and difficulty in creating high-quality jobs have renewed interest in industrial policy across the developing world. - **Historical context**: LAC has traditionally favored non-interventionist growth policies, which were associated with the failures of import substitution industrialization (ISI) and macroeconomic instability. ### Industrial Policy as a Learning Policy - **Capabilities and learning**: Industrial policy should focus on building capabilities to adopt and exploit new technologies. LAC has historically struggled with this. - **Sectoral performance**: Manufacturing in LAC has underperformed relative to Asia, where productivity and employment have grown. This highlights the importance of how goods are produced, not just what is produced. - **Risk and reward**: Industrial policy interventions require careful assessment of risks and rewards, with success depending on state capacity, fiscal space, and market size. ### Strategic Tools for Industrial Policy - **Building capabilities**: Enhancing skills, innovation, and technology adoption is critical. - **Facilitating risk-taking**: Supporting firms in taking strategic risks in manufacturing and other sectors. - **Leveraging openness**: Using trade and foreign investment to enhance growth and productivity. - **Strengthening the state**: Improving institutional capacity and policy coordination. ## Conclusion The report emphasizes the need for complementary domestic reforms to unlock the potential of trade and industrial policies. These include reducing policy uncertainty, improving infrastructure and human capital, and strengthening institutions. Industrial policy, when designed effectively, can serve as a learning policy that enables LAC to adapt and grow in a more dynamic and integrated global economy.