> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # Michael MENG (852)39886433 michael.meng@bocigroup.com Index Performance <table><tr><td></td><td>Last close</td><td>% 1D</td><td>% YTD</td></tr><tr><td>HSI</td><td>25,321</td><td>0.3</td><td>(1.2)</td></tr><tr><td>HSCEI</td><td>8,451</td><td>(0.4)</td><td>(5.2)</td></tr><tr><td>HSCCI</td><td>4,330</td><td>0.3</td><td>7.8</td></tr><tr><td>MSCI HK</td><td>14,778</td><td>(2.9)</td><td>8.0</td></tr><tr><td>MSCI CHINA</td><td>78</td><td>(0.4)</td><td>(5.8)</td></tr><tr><td>FTSE CHINA50</td><td>14,636</td><td>1.0</td><td>(4.4)</td></tr><tr><td>CSI 300</td><td>4,648</td><td>1.0</td><td>0.4</td></tr><tr><td>TWSE</td><td>33,673</td><td>2.6</td><td>16.3</td></tr><tr><td>SENSEX</td><td>79,116</td><td>(1.4)</td><td>(7.2)</td></tr><tr><td>NIKKEI 225</td><td>55,278</td><td>1.9</td><td>9.8</td></tr><tr><td>KOSPI</td><td>5,584</td><td>9.6</td><td>32.5</td></tr><tr><td>ASX 200</td><td>8,801</td><td>(1.4)</td><td>1.4</td></tr><tr><td>DJIA</td><td>47,955</td><td>(1.6)</td><td>(0.2)</td></tr><tr><td>S&P 500</td><td>6,831</td><td>(0.6)</td><td>(0.2)</td></tr><tr><td>FTSE 100</td><td>10,414</td><td>(1.5)</td><td>4.9</td></tr></table> * US data as of 5 Mar 2026 Commodity Price Performance <table><tr><td></td><td>Last close</td><td>% 1D</td><td>%YTD</td></tr><tr><td>Brent Crude (US$/bbl)</td><td>84</td><td>2.8</td><td>38.7</td></tr><tr><td>Gold (US$/oz)</td><td>5,082</td><td>(1.1)</td><td>17.7</td></tr><tr><td>Copper (US$/t)</td><td>13,058</td><td>0.8</td><td>5.1</td></tr><tr><td>Aluminum (US$/t)</td><td>3,344</td><td>2.7</td><td>12.7</td></tr><tr><td>Nickel (US$/t)</td><td>17,287</td><td>2.2</td><td>4.8</td></tr><tr><td>CH domestic steel rebar 25 (RMB/t)</td><td>3,199</td><td>(0.0)</td><td>(1.3)</td></tr><tr><td>CH domestic high speed wire (RMB/t)</td><td>3,633</td><td>0.1</td><td>(1.5)</td></tr><tr><td>CH domestic hot rolled steel (RMB/t)</td><td>3,240</td><td>(0.1)</td><td>(0.9)</td></tr><tr><td>CH domestic cold rolled steel (RMB/t)</td><td>3,732</td><td>(0.0)</td><td>(1.9)</td></tr><tr><td>BDI (index)</td><td>2,242</td><td>0.0</td><td>19.4</td></tr></table> * US data as of 5 Mar 2026 Key Macro and Earnings Releases <table><tr><td></td><td></td><td>Con-sensus</td><td>Last actual</td></tr><tr><td>Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (US)</td><td>6/3</td><td>57.0</td><td>130.0</td></tr><tr><td>Unemployment Rate (US)</td><td>6/3</td><td>4.3</td><td>4.3</td></tr><tr><td>Average Hourly Earnings YoY (US)</td><td>6/3</td><td>3.7</td><td>3.7</td></tr><tr><td>Retail Sales Advance MoM (US)</td><td>6/3</td><td>(0.3)</td><td>0.0</td></tr><tr><td>Foreign Reserves (CH)</td><td>7/3</td><td>--</td><td>3,399.1</td></tr><tr><td>PPI YoY (CH)</td><td>9/3</td><td>(1.1)</td><td>(1.4)</td></tr><tr><td>CPI YoY (CH)</td><td>9/3</td><td>0.9</td><td>0.2</td></tr><tr><td>New Yuan Loans CNY YTD (CH)</td><td>9/3</td><td>5,610.0</td><td>4,710.0</td></tr><tr><td>Aggregate Financing CNY YTD (CH)</td><td>9/3</td><td>9,220.0</td><td>7,220.8</td></tr><tr><td>Money Supply M2 YoY (CH)</td><td>9/3</td><td>9.0</td><td>9.0</td></tr><tr><td>Money Supply M1 YoY (CH)</td><td>9/3</td><td>--</td><td>4.9</td></tr><tr><td>Existing Home Sales (US)</td><td>10/3</td><td>3.9</td><td>3.9</td></tr><tr><td>CPI YoY (US)</td><td>11/3</td><td>2.5</td><td>2.4</td></tr><tr><td>Core CPI YoY (US)</td><td>11/3</td><td>2.4</td><td>2.5</td></tr><tr><td>Housing Starts (US)</td><td>12/3</td><td>1,340.0</td><td>1,404.0</td></tr><tr><td>U. of Mich. Sentiment (US)</td><td>13/3</td><td>56.3</td><td>56.6</td></tr></table> Key BOCI Events <table><tr><td>Corp Access</td><td></td><td>Date</td></tr><tr><td>Huya (Tencent Meeting)</td><td>HUYA US</td><td>18, 20 Mar</td></tr><tr><td>Fuyao Glass (Group Tencent Meeting at 10am)</td><td>3606.HK</td><td>19 Mar</td></tr><tr><td>Bilibili (1x1, Group Meeting at 10am)</td><td>BILI US/9626.HK</td><td>HK 20 Mar</td></tr><tr><td>BOC Aviation (1x1)</td><td>2588.HK</td><td>HK 23 Mar</td></tr><tr><td>CIMC Enric (Group Call at 2pm)</td><td>3899.HK</td><td>25 Mar</td></tr><tr><td>Huaneng Power (1x1)</td><td>902.HK</td><td>HK 27 Mar</td></tr><tr><td>Datang Renewable (1x1)</td><td>1798.HK</td><td>HK 1 Apr</td></tr></table> Please register with your BOCI sales rep. # MORNING INSIGHTS # Flexible growth target in 2026 to put more efforts on structural transition and high-quality development # Zhang Wan/Penny Peng Macro & Strategy | China Economy (i) The 2026 Government Work Report sets key economic and social goals, lowering the growth target from $5\%$ in 2025 to $4.5\% - 5\%$ . The adjustment aims to allow 2026 economic policies to focus more on improving growth quality while creating room for structural adjustments, reforms, and risk prevention. In practice, to ensure a strong start to the 15th Five-Year Plan, efforts are expected to be directed toward mid-range growth within the target range. (ii) The 2026 Government Work Report places greater emphasis on the price level, aiming to turn the GDP deflator from negative to positive. This suggests that measures to regulate overall supply and demand may become more proactive. (iii) Fiscal and monetary policies balance supporting economic growth, promoting structural adjustments, preserving future policy flexibility, and enhancing coordination. Fiscal policy will play a more direct role in boosting domestic demand, with new government bonds totaling RMB11.89trn in 2026, slightly higher than the RMB11.86trn in the 2025 budget. However, the share of new government bonds to GDP will decrease from $8.5\%$ in 2025 to $8.1\%$ in 2026. # 灵活务实的2026增长目标，助力结构转型和高质量发展 # 张婉/彭助 (i) 2026年政府工作报告公布主要经济社会发展目标，适度下调经济增长目标至 $4.5\% - 5\%$ 。适度下调目标要求主要是为了2026年经济工作更聚焦提高质量，为调结构、促改革和防风险留出空间。实际中，为了“十五五”开好局，预计仍会努力推进经济增长实现区间中游水平的增长。 (ii)2026年政府工作报告更加重视物价水平回升，将推进GDP平减指数由负转正，这也意味着调节总供求的举措可能更加积极。 (iii)财政和货币政策兼顾总量上支持经济增长，促进经济结构调整、保留未来政策空间和增加货币财政协调性的多重考虑。其中，财政政策在扩大内需中发挥更加直接的拉动作用，2026年新增政府债券11.89万亿元，高于2025年11.86万亿元预算安排，但新增政府债务安排占GDP的比重从2025年的 $8.5\%$ 下降到2026年的 $8.1\%$ # Bilibili Inc - BUY (ADR & H) (BILI US/US$25.55, TP: US$30.00 ↓; 9626 HK/HK$210.60, TP: HK$233.00 ↓) # Raphael Chen, CFA/Dolores Tang Target Price Change | TMT (i) $8\%$ YoY topline in 4Q25 beat consensus by $2\%$ mainly due to accelerated $27\%$ YoY online ad. 35.7m paying users reached historical high. $10.1\%$ adj. OPM met consensus. (ii) Although we estimate around RMB600m adj. net profit impact (forecasted RMB3.0bn adj. np) in 2026 due to Co.'s accelerated AI-related investments in AI models aiming to enhance content comprehension capabilities and AI-related toolkits such as content production and multilingual translation, we deem Co. consistently unlock monetisation potentials on its solidified content, decentralised distribution mechanism and community edges. (iii) Maintain $\text{BUY}$ with new PEG based TP of US $30.0/ HK$ 233.0. # 哔哩哔哩 - 4Q25 超预期；基于核心差异化优势在内容消费升级趋势中加大 AI 投入获取长期收益 (买入-ADR & H股) *BILI.US*9626.HK # 陈逸群/唐雨欣 (i) 4Q25总收入同比增长 $8\%$ ，超出市场一致预期 $2\%$ ，主要得益于同比加速增长 $27\%$ 的在线广告业务。付费用户数达3,570万，创历史新高。调整后营业利润率 $10.1\%$ ，符合市场预期。 (ii)尽管我们预计由于公司为强化内容理解能力及研发内容生产、多语言翻译等AI工具加大AI相关投入，2026年相较我们之前预测将产生约6亿元人民币的调整后净利润影响（预计2026年调整后净利润为30亿元），但我们认为公司凭借其稳固的内容壁垒、去中心化分发机制与社区优势，将在AI的赋能中持续释放商业化潜力。 (iii) 维持买入评级，基于PEG估值法新目标价为30.0美元/233.0港元。 # China Banking Sector - Banking stocks may outperform amid rising geopolitical risks # Eric Hu, CFA/Freya Ren News Alert | Financials (i) Amidst the recent sharp market volatility, the banking sector has demonstrated defensive resilience thanks to its attractive valuations with high dividend yields. (ii) We believe H-share banking stocks ranked third in terms of southbound net inflow among 36 WIND second-tier sectors YTD. (iii) Banking sector fundamental is likely to remain solid in 2026. Maintain OVERWEIGHT rating on H-share banking sector. # 中国银行业 - 地缘政治风险升温背景下，银行股有望跑赢大盘（消息快报） # 胡文洲/任雅茜 (i) 近期市场大幅波动背景下，银行板块凭借估值吸引力与高股息率，展现出防御性价值。 (ii) 年初至今，H股银行板块在WIND二级行业分类的36个板块中，南向资金净流入规模位居第三。 (iii) 我们认为，2026年银行业基本面有望保持稳健。维持对H股银行板块的增持评级。 # Certifications and Important Disclosure All views expressed in this material reflect the personal views of each analyst about any and all of the subject securities or issuers. In addition, no part of the analyst's compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this material. Except as disclosed herein, each analyst declares that (i) neither he/she nor his/her associate has any financial interests in relation to the issuer reviewed by the analyst, and (ii) neither he/she nor his/her associate serves as an officer of the issuer reviewed by the analyst. For the purposes of these certifications, the term "associate" includes members of the analyst's household as defined by FINRA. 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