2008年-世界发展银行全球_Pakistan_-_Balochistan_Economic_Report___From_Periphery_to_Core_Volume_2_Full_Report_223页_20mb

报告摘要

Pakistan Balochistan Economic Report Summary

Core Content

This report, titled Pakistan - From Periphery to Core, is a joint effort by the Government of Balochistan, the World Bank, and the Asian Development Bank. It provides an in-depth analysis of the economic conditions, growth opportunities, and development challenges in Balochistan, focusing on infrastructure, resource management, service delivery, and fiscal policy. The report is divided into four main parts, each addressing different aspects of economic development in the province.

Main Viewpoints

Economic Growth: Balochistan has a weak long-term growth record, but there is a noticeable recovery. Growth is driven by all three sectors, although agriculture remains a key contributor.
Employment: Job creation has increased, but the quality of jobs is low. Public sector employment is limited, and most workers hold own-account jobs.
Poverty Reduction: Economic recovery has not yet reached the poorest segments of the population. Poverty is more prevalent in rural and poor households, with significant disparities across agro-ecological zones.
Social Development: Social and gender indicators are low but improving. Education and health services are underdeveloped, especially in rural areas, and access is uneven.
Fiscal Policy: Balochistan's fiscal recovery is mixed, with increased public spending and a shift towards pro-poor initiatives, but challenges remain in revenue generation and fiscal devolution.
Infrastructure and Investment: There is a need for significant investment in transport, irrigation, and energy infrastructure. The province's ports and trade corridors are underdeveloped but have potential for growth.
Resource Management: Balochistan has substantial mineral, energy, and fishery resources, but their utilization is limited due to poor governance, security issues, and inadequate infrastructure.
Governance and Accountability: The province faces challenges in governance, including a large bureaucracy, incomplete administrative devolution, and weak service delivery mechanisms.

Key Information

Economic Overview

Fiscal Year: July 1 - June 30
Currency: Pakistan Rupees (PKRs)
Exchange Rate: US$1 = 65.83 PKR (May 7, 2008)

Growth Pillars

Mining: Despite high potential, the sector has stagnated in contribution to provincial GDP and declined in national mining GDP.
Petroleum: Production and exploration are declining, and security issues are affecting the sector.
Gwadar: A strategic port with potential for transit trade and industrial development, though infrastructure is lacking.
Coastal Development: The province has a large coastline but underutilized fisheries potential due to poor value chains and limited investment.

Employment and Labor

Productivity: Workers in Balochistan are less productive than in other provinces.
Job Quality: Most jobs are low quality, and skilled employment is growing.
Migration: Workers in Balochistan migrate less than in other provinces.

Poverty and Social Development

Poverty Trends: Poverty has not declined significantly for the poorest segments. Rural poverty is more severe.
Education: Public schools perform poorly, and private schools are scarce. Girls and women lag behind in education.
Health: Health services are underfunded and underperforming, especially in rural areas. Private health consultations are expensive.
Water and Sanitation: Access to improved water and sanitation is limited, especially in rural areas. The water strategy requires substantial funding.

Fiscal and Development Financing

Public Spending: Increased in recent years, with a focus on transport, irrigation, and law and order.
Fiscal Devolution: Incomplete, with most resources remaining at the provincial level.
Debt and Revenues: Public debt has increased, and revenues have not kept pace with spending.

Infrastructure and Investment

Transport: Poor infrastructure limits rural mobility and trade.
Energy: Limited electricity supply and high reliance on subsidies.
Ports: Gwadar and other ports have potential but require significant investment in infrastructure.

Governance and Institutional Challenges

Bureaucracy: Biased towards low grades, with frequent transfers.
Security: A major challenge affecting the petroleum and mining sectors.
Accountability: Weak in public service delivery and health systems.

Regional and International Context

Trade: Trade with Afghanistan and Iran has increased, but with Central Asia has declined.
International Projects: The report references several international projects and partnerships, including those with the World Bank, Asian Development Bank, and other agencies.

Key Tables and Figures

Table 1.1: Balochistan's challenges and opportunities across four dimensions.
Table 2.1: Growth pillars, sectors, and areas in Balochistan.
Table 2.2: Instruments for generating growth.
Table 2.3: Balochistan's tax regime compared to other countries.
Table 2.4: Opportunities and challenges in sustainable mining.
Table 2.5: Port capacity expansion in the region.
Table 2.6: Gwadar's competitive advantage and industrial potential.
Table 3.1: Public satisfaction with services in Balochistan.
Table 4.1: Public expenditures in Balochistan.
Table 4.2: Pro-poor public spending in Balochistan.
Table 4.3: Real per capita development spending increase.
Figure 1.1: Map of Balochistan.
Figure 1.2: Balochistan's share in Pakistan along three dimensions.
Figure 1.3: Framework of the report.
Figure 1.4: Balochistan's long-term growth record.
Figure 1.5: Productivity of workers in Balochistan.
Figure 1.6: Economic recovery not benefiting rural poor.
Figure 1.7: Social and gender indicators.
Figure 1.8: Weak long-term growth record.
Figure 1.9: Divergence in per capita income.
Figure 1.10: Economic growth lagging behind national growth.
Figure 1.11: Growth supported by all three sectors.
Figure 1.12: Quetta as the main urban center.
Figure 1.13: Low urbanization and household durables.
Figure 1.14: Labor productivity in Balochistan.
Figure 1.15: Low quality of jobs.
Figure 1.16: Growth in skilled agriculture and labor.
Figure 1.17: Informality in non-agricultural sectors.
Figure 1.18: Wages increasing for regular and irregular jobs.
Figure 1.19: Low migration rates.
Figure 1.20: Youthful population structure.
Figure 1.21: Potential for economic convergence with skilled labor.
Figure 1.22: Poverty decline at high levels of agricultural assets.
Figure 1.23: Poverty varies across agro-ecological zones.
Figure 1.24: Rural households with no crop or livestock income have high poverty.
Figure 1.25: Livestock sector recovery from drought.
Figure 1.26: Agricultural output and productivity recovery.
Figure 1.27: Increase in crop contribution to agricultural GDP.
Figure 1.28: Rural consumption still low.
Figure 1.29: Crop farming is the main source of income.
Figure 1.30: Low water resource utilization.
Figure 1.31: High expenditure on electric tubewells and irrigation.
Figure 1.32: Low water access and poor facilities.
Figure 1.33: Improved water access linked to child health.
Figure 1.34: TMAs receive only 9% of the provincial budget.
Figure 1.35: Children in Balochistan were poorer in the mid-2000s.
Figure 1.36: Limited social assistance.
Figure 4.1: Fiscal inter-governmental relations in Balochistan.

Key Boxes

Box 1.1: Basic services are a public responsibility.
Box 1.2: Afghan refugees in Balochistan.
Box 2.1: Copper mining on the road to success.
Box 2.2: Need for modernization of the coal sector.
Box 2.3: Marble and granite mining.
Box 2.4: Geological Survey of Pakistan.
Box 2.5: Marble City.
Box 2.6: Mining technical assistance project.
Box 2.7: Police accountability.
Box 2.8: Central-South Asian road corridors.
Box 2.9: Gwadar as China's energy hub.
Box 2.10: Export-less economic recovery.
Box 2.11: Port capacity expansion.
Box 2.12: Port as catalyst for industry clustering.
Box 2.13: Gwadar's development spur.
Box 2.14: Gwadar and Pakistan's Vision 2030.
Box 2.15: Thailand's Eastern Seaboard Program.
Box 2.16: National Trade Corridor Improvement Program.
Box 2.17: Pakistan's fishing zones.
Box 2.18: Foreign trawlers depleting local fish stocks.
Box 2.19: Balochistan's fish harbors.
Box 2.20: Chilean salmon industry as a PPP example.
Box 2.21: Insurance against natural calamities.
Box 2.22: Industrial estates in Lasbela.
Box 2.23: Thailand's zoning policy.
Box 2.24: Bus Service Koocha-Khuzdar as a lifeline.
Box 2.25: Pakistan's energy strategy.
Box 2.26: Turkmenistan-Pakistan-India Gas Pipeline.
Box 2.27: Illegal trade through Balochistan.
Box 2.28: Agro-ecological zones.
Box 2.29: White Revolution.
Box 2.30: Livestock breeds.
Box 2.31: Transhumance in Koocha.
Box 2.32: Rangeland management approaches.
Box 2.33: Loess Watershed Rehabilitation Project.
Box 2.34: Government initiatives in agriculture.
Box 3.1: Tribal organization in Balochistan.
Box 3.2: Social mobilization and drought mitigation.
Box 3.3: Accountability challenges.
Box 3.4: Balochistan Education Foundation.
Box 3.5: Teacher absenteeism reduction.
Box 3.6: Trends and surveys in education.
Box 3.7: HIV/AIDS in Balochistan.
Box 3.8: Poor health among the poor.
Box 3.9: Foreign health projects.
Box 3.10: Unmet family planning needs.
Box 3.11: Draft health strategy for 2006.
Box 3.12: Government initiatives in health.
Box 3.13: Lodhran Pilot Project.
Box 3.14: Conditional cash transfers in Pakistan.
Box 4.1: Balochistan Resource Management Program.

Conclusion

The report highlights the need for comprehensive development strategies in Balochistan, emphasizing the importance of improving infrastructure, enhancing resource utilization, strengthening governance, and expanding social services. It also underscores the role of international cooperation and public-private partnerships in driving economic growth and development in the province.

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