2022-10-01-埃森哲-Commercial-Aerospace-Insight-Report-Navigating-Recovery-2_22页_5mb

Commercial Aerospace Insight Report Summary

Core Content

The Commercial Aerospace Insight Report outlines the current state and future outlook of the global aerospace industry as it navigates recovery from the impacts of the pandemic and ongoing macroeconomic challenges. The report highlights a cautious but optimistic sentiment among aerospace executives, with expectations of growth in 2022 and beyond, although full recovery to pre-pandemic levels remains a work in progress.

Main Points

Industry Recovery

• Global Recovery: The aerospace industry is entering recovery mode in 2022, with global commercial aerospace revenues expected to grow by 13% YoY.
• Regional Variations:
  • Asia Pacific is expected to see the fastest recovery, with revenues 10% higher than 2019 levels.
  • North America and Europe are projected to be 15% and 23% lower than 2019 levels, respectively.
• Revenue Outlook:
  • 31% of executives expect revenue growth in the next 6 months.
  • 81% expect revenue growth in the next 12 months.
• Airlines' Revival:
  • RPKs are expected to increase by 98% in 2022.
  • IATA forecasts a $10B net loss for airlines in 2022, a significant improvement from $42B in 2021.
  • Full passenger level recovery is anticipated in 18 months.

Supply Chain and Production

• Supply Chain Disruptions:
  • Ongoing disruptions persist, particularly due to the Russia-Ukraine war and China's zero-COVID policy.
  • 22% of executives report reduced confidence in supply chain timeliness and quality over the next 6 months.
  • Optimism is rising, with 88% expecting suppliers to meet or exceed expectations in 2023 and 100% in 24 months.
• Production Outlook:
  • 64% of executives expect production capacity to remain stable in the next 6 months.
  • 72% and 97% expect capacity to increase in the next 12–24 months.
  • Airbus plans to increase A320 production to 75 per month by 2025, with a temporary delay to 65 per month.
  • Boeing's 737 MAX production is increasing, and the 787 program is resuming after a 16-month suspension.

Aftermarket Recovery

• MRO Activity:
  • The aftermarket is on a stable recovery path, with MRO spend expected to remain stable in the next 6 months and increase in the next 12–24 months.
  • Global aircraft utilization in July 2022 was 26% higher than 2021 and 15% below 2019 levels.
  • MRO providers are increasingly adopting digital technologies like robotics, AI, and blockchain to improve efficiency and address labor shortages.

Talent and Digital Transformation

• Digital Talent Gap:
  • 89% of executives reported that a lack of digital talent negatively impacted their ability to meet customer obligations.
  • 83% expect large-scale organizational or operating model redesigns in the next 24 months.
  • Companies like Airbus and Boeing are investing in digital transformation and R&D hubs to develop new skills and capabilities.
• Talent Acquisition:
  • Compensation, learning opportunities, and work-life flexibility are key areas for attracting and retaining talent.
  • Pratt & Whitney and Rolls-Royce are actively hiring for digital supply chain roles.

Challenges and Concerns

• Pandemic and Economic Risks:
  • Pandemic-induced disruptions and economic slowdowns are the top concerns for executives in the short term.
  • New variants and localized outbreaks could delay recovery.
  • Inflation and interest rate changes are also viewed as significant risks.
• Political and Geopolitical Factors:
  • While regional armed conflicts and terrorism are seen as less of a concern, political instability and exchange rate changes remain a consistent risk over the next 2 years.

Key Information

• 2022 Revenue Growth:
  • Global commercial aerospace revenue is expected to grow by 13% YoY.
  • Asia Pacific is the fastest-growing region, with 10% higher than 2019 levels.
• Delivery Growth:
  • Commercial deliveries are expected to increase by 24% YoY in 2022.
  • Narrow-body deliveries are expected to grow by 26% YoY, while wide-body deliveries are expected to grow by 14% YoY.
• Airlines' Performance:
  • 72% of executives expect airline revenues to take 12–24 months to recover to 2019 levels.
  • 81% of executives expect increased MRO spending in the next 12 months.
• Cost Pressures:
  • Inflation and rising material costs (e.g., titanium, aluminum, and steel) are affecting the industry.
  • 90% of executives expect raw material costs to rise over the next 12–24 months.
  • Labor costs are expected to increase significantly in the medium term.

Figures and Trends

• Figure 1: Global commercial aerospace index (USD, 2018 = 100) shows a 13% growth in 2022.
• Figure 2: Airline recovery outlook indicates 12–24 months to reach 2019 levels.
• Figure 3: Historic and expected deliveries by year (Boeing and Airbus) show a 11% YoY increase in 2022.
• Figure 4: Risk factors for commercial aerospace show global pandemic as the primary concern for the next 6 and 12 months.
• Figure 5: Business-cycle stance shows 81% of executives expect revenue growth in the next 12 months.
• Figure 6: Commercial aerospace product delivery outlook indicates 94% of executives expect deliveries to increase in the second half of 2022.
• Figure 7 and 8: Narrow-body and wide-body delivery outlooks show 94% and 100% confidence in growth for 2023.
• Figure 9: MRO activity outlook indicates 80% of executives expect stable MRO spend in the next 6 months.
• Figure 10: Production capacity outlook shows 64% of executives expect stability in the next 6 months.
• Figure 11: Supplier delivery outlook indicates 88% confidence in meeting expectations in 2023.
• Figure 12: Raw materials cost outlook shows 92% and 86% of executives predict cost increases over the next 12 and 24 months.
• Figure 13: Subsystem or parts cost outlook indicates 90% of executives expect cost increases over the next 1–2 years.
• Figure 14: Labor cost outlook shows 60% expect stability in the short term and 90% anticipate increases in the medium term.
• Figure 15: Digital talent confidence indicates 72% are confident in digital engineering, while 8% are in supply chain management.
• Figure 16: Airline recovery outlook shows 12% YoY growth for Europe in 2022.
• Figure 17: Asia Pacific is expected to grow 4.5% YoY in 2022, surpassing 2019 levels by 10%.
• Figure 18: Airbus leads in orders and deliveries, with 292 A320 Neos ordered by Chinese carriers in 1H22.
• Figure 19 and 20: Europe's commercial aerospace index shows 23% lower than 2019.
• Figure 21 and 22: Asia Pacific's commercial aerospace index shows 10% above 2019.

Conclusion

The aerospace industry is on a recovery trajectory, with strong growth expected in 2022 and beyond. While challenges such as supply chain disruptions, labor shortages, and macroeconomic uncertainties persist, there is a growing optimism among executives. Digital transformation and talent acquisition are key drivers for future success, with companies investing in new skills and technologies to enhance agility and performance. The recovery is uneven across regions, with Asia Pacific leading the way, followed by North America, and Europe lagging behind.