2013-01-24-美国商务部-The_Second_Phase_Report_on_the_Statistical_Discrepancy_of_Merchandise_Trade_Between_the_United_States_and_China_18页_961kb

报告摘要

Summary of The Second Phase Report on the Statistical Discrepancy of Merchandise Trade between the United States and China

I. Overview

This report is the second reconciliation study by the Statistics Working Group under the Joint Commission on Commerce and Trade, aimed at identifying and quantifying statistical discrepancies in U.S.-China bilateral merchandise trade data. The goal is to improve understanding of the causes of these discrepancies without implying errors in either country's statistical systems.

The study uses data from the calendar years 2008, 2009, and 2010, updating previous findings from 2000, 2004, and 2006. It highlights the key factors contributing to discrepancies in both eastbound and westbound trade, with a greater focus on eastbound due to its larger volume and magnitude.

II. Eastbound Trade

Core Content

Eastbound trade (China exports and U.S. imports) accounts for the majority of the statistical discrepancy. The discrepancy in dollar value fluctuated between USD 75.60 billion and USD 85.41 billion over the study years, but the percentage of the discrepancy relative to U.S. imports declined from 47.9% in 2000 to 22.4% in 2010.

Main Causes of Discrepancy

China's Re-exports: Chinese export statistics include re-exports of goods not of Chinese origin to the U.S., which are recorded in U.S. statistics as imports from the origin country.
- 2008: USD 2.93 billion
- 2009: USD 2.58 billion
- 2010: USD 3.42 billion
Geographic Differences: The U.S. includes Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands in its customs territory, while China excludes them.
- 2008: USD 0.74 billion
- 2009: USD 0.73 billion
- 2010: USD 0.77 billion
Direct Trade of Processed Goods: Processed goods shipped directly from China to the U.S. are valued higher in U.S. import statistics due to markups by intermediary parties.
- 2008: USD 19.55 billion
- 2009: USD 15.59 billion
- 2010: USD 22.11 billion
Indirect Trade via Intermediary Countries/Regions: Goods re-processed or re-packaged in intermediary countries (especially Hong Kong) add value, leading to discrepancies.
- 2008: USD 25.55 billion (via Hong Kong)
- 2009: USD 21.11 billion (via Hong Kong)
- 2010: USD 20.47 billion (via Hong Kong)
- 2008: USD 17.57 billion (via other intermediaries)
- 2009: USD 14.66 billion (via other intermediaries)
- 2010: USD 17.48 billion (via other intermediaries)
Timing Discrepancy: Time lag in ocean shipments leads to differences in reported values.
- 2008: USD 0.39 billion
- 2009: USD 0.96 billion
- 2010: USD 3.05 billion

Key Findings

The residual discrepancy (unexplained portion after adjustments) averaged 8.0% in eastbound trade, down from previous studies.
Indirect trade via Hong Kong remains a major contributor, but its share in the discrepancy is decreasing.
Direct trade accounts for over 50% of the eastbound discrepancy, with processed goods making up a large portion of this trade.
Conceptual and methodological differences (e.g., valuation methods, re-export definitions) contribute to discrepancies but tend to cancel out.

III. Westbound Trade

Core Content

Westbound trade (U.S. exports and China imports) has a much smaller discrepancy, averaging around USD 9 billion over the study period. The discrepancy percentage share declined from 27.3% in 2000 to 10.0% in 2010.

Main Causes of Discrepancy

U.S. Re-exports: U.S. export statistics include goods not of U.S. origin, which are recorded in China's import statistics as imports from the origin country.
- 2008: USD 4.29 billion
- 2009: USD 4.45 billion
- 2010: USD 6.13 billion
Shipping Costs: China includes shipping costs (CIF basis) in its import statistics, while the U.S. excludes them (FAS basis).
- 2008: USD 4.46 billion
- 2009: USD 3.47 billion
- 2010: USD 5.05 billion
Repair Value: The U.S. includes repair costs in its export statistics, while China does not include them in its import statistics.
- 2008: USD 0.18 billion
- 2009: USD 0.16 billion
- 2010: USD 0.18 billion

Key Findings

The residual discrepancy in westbound trade averaged 12.1%, down from previous studies.
The main factor remains U.S. re-exports, which are not accounted for in China's statistics.
Valuation differences (shipping costs, repair values) contribute to the discrepancy, but adjustments have minimal net impact.

IV. Conclusion

The overall share of statistical discrepancy in bilateral trade has been declining over time.
Eastbound trade continues to be the primary source of discrepancies, accounting for 88% of the total discrepancy in 2010.
The working group identified and adjusted for several measurable factors, such as re-exports, geographic differences, and added values in indirect trade.
Conceptual differences in trade data compilation (e.g., valuation, re-export definitions) remain significant but largely offset each other.
Residual discrepancies are smaller than in previous studies, indicating progress in reconciling trade data between the two countries.