2006年-世界发展银行全球_Financial_Sector_Assessment___Tunisia_21页_2mb

Tunisian Financial Sector Assessment Summary (July 2006)

Overview

Tunisia's economy has shown strong performance over the past decade, with an average real growth rate of 5 percent since 2000 and a 20 percent increase in real per capita income, supported by macroeconomic stability. The banking sector plays a central role in financing the economy, although new equity issues remain modest (TD 204 million in 2004, or 0.8% of GDP). The stock market capitalization is low, at about 9% of GDP in 2004. Venture capital companies (SICARs) have limited asset growth (TD 40 million in 2004), while leasing has developed successfully, contributing 11% of private investment financing.

Despite economic progress, the banking sector is burdened by a high level of non-performing loans (NPLs), at 21% of total loans at end-2005, and a low provisioning ratio of 46%. The authorities have set a target of achieving a 70% provisioning ratio by 2009 and an NPL ratio of 10% or less, which would align Tunisia with other emerging economies. These goals require a combination of regulatory, judicial, and tax measures to incentivize banks to reduce NPLs and improve provisioning practices.

Main Features of the Strategy

• NPL Reduction Target: The mission recommends an NPL ratio of 10% or less by 2009, which would lead to significant savings in provisioning costs and reduce the need for capital injections.
• Provisioning Strategy: The provisioning rate for new NPLs should not exceed 30% covered by eligible collateral, in line with international best practices.
• Debt Restructuring: A dynamic strategy involving loan restructuring, partial debt cancellation, and improved recovery mechanisms is proposed to reduce NPLs more efficiently than the current approach.
• Tax Neutrality: The fiscal treatment of partial write-offs should be neutral and simplified to encourage debt restructuring.
• Tourism Sector as a Pilot: The tourism sector, which accounts for 40% of NPLs, is suggested as a pilot for financial restructuring. A comprehensive plan is needed to quantify resources, estimate equity requirements, and outline possible debt write-offs and restructuring terms.

Strengthening Public Bank Management

• High Public Bank Share: Public banks account for 42.9% of total assets at end-2005, and their performance must be at least as strong as private sector banks to avoid differentiated performance along ownership lines.
• Performance Targets: A contract program with management should be formalized, based on quantifiable targets such as NPL ratios, cost-income ratios, and recovery rates.
• Governance and Transparency: The Board of Directors should be independent, with non-executive members. International auditing firms should be appointed, and all loans should be based on strict financial criteria.
• Human Resource Management: Senior managers should have appropriate mandates, and risk management practices must be improved, including better borrower information and provisioning decisions.
• Dynamic NPL Resolution Policy: A commitment to a structured approach with quantitative targets and deadlines is essential.

Constraints, Challenges, and Vulnerabilities

Credit Quality

• NPLs have increased since 2000, peaking at 23.7% in 2004, but declined to 20.9% in 2005.
• Tunisia's NPL ratio is higher than comparable countries (e.g., 19.6% in Morocco, 15.5% in Poland).
• The provisioning rate at end-2005 was 46.4%, lower than in other countries (e.g., 59% in Morocco, 88% in Turkey).
• A high proportion of NPLs is covered by collateral, mostly real estate, which may lead to under-provisioning and increased vulnerability.

Solvency Ratios

• The risk-weighted capital adequacy ratio (CAR) for commercial banks declined from 10.7% in 2005, indicating weakened solvency.
• The ratio of non-provisioned NPLs to capital increased from 114.2% in 2000 to 124.1% in 2005.
• Achieving a 70% provisioning rate by 2009 would reduce this ratio to about 80% of 2004 regulatory capital, though still high by international standards.

Profitability and Liquidity

• The lending-deposit rate spread decreased from 4.6% in 2000 to 3.1% in 2004, partly due to declining interest rates and a higher NPL share.
• Operating cost-income ratios worsened from 54.5% in 2000 to 61.4% in 2005, with public banks performing worse than private banks.
• Opening new branches and improving information systems may increase overheads and amortization costs.

Former Development Banks

• Five former development banks, which were jointly owned by the Tunisian government and Gulf states, have restructured their portfolios by provisioning and transferring claims to asset recovery entities.
• With universal bank status, they now face competition in an over-banked system, suggesting the potential for mergers or associations.

Financing SMEs and Individuals

• Access to finance for SMEs and individuals is limited due to reliance on collateral and a lack of credit bureau data.
• The establishment of a credit bureau is essential for improving credit quality and enabling more sophisticated risk assessment.
• Electronic banking development could shift financing toward repayment capacity-based models, but this requires the BCT to share consumer credit data with a private credit bureau.

Prudential Framework Improvements

• Regulatory reforms since the 2002 FSAP have strengthened licensing, investment rules, and pre-loan financial information collection.
• The BCT has revised its banking law and developed internal control mechanisms, enhancing its supervisory role.
• Weaknesses include inadequate credit risk management, lack of consolidated prudential ratios, and restrictive sanction and connected lending procedures.

Legal and Judicial Environment for Credit

• Reforms have been introduced to improve NPL recovery, but they have not significantly changed economic behavior or recovery rates.
• Legal and tax barriers hinder the reduction of NPL burdens, especially through partial write-offs.
• The recovery process is slow, with litigation taking up to three to five years, and adjournments in court proceedings are uncontrolled.
• There is a need for more efficient out-of-court settlement mechanisms and the involvement of professional mediators.
• Collateral registration and execution mechanisms are restrictive, particularly for real estate, limiting access to credit and recovery efficiency.

Conclusion

The Tunisian financial sector has made progress in recent years, but challenges remain in reducing NPLs, improving solvency, and enhancing the efficiency of credit recovery. A comprehensive strategy involving regulatory, judicial, and tax reforms is essential to strengthen the banking system and support economic growth. The mission emphasizes the importance of monitoring implementation, ensuring transparency, and promoting better risk management practices. The tourism sector is highlighted as a potential pilot for broader financial restructuring efforts.