战略与国际研究中心-Afghan-Public-Opinion-and-the-Afghan-War_42页_2mb

AFGHAN PUBLIC OPINION AND THE AFGHAN WAR: SHIFTS BY REGION AND PROVINCE

Core Content

This document presents a detailed analysis of public opinion in Afghanistan based on the ABC News Poll conducted in February 2009, highlighting the regional and provincial variations in attitudes toward the war, government, and foreign forces. It emphasizes the complexity of Afghan society and the limitations of generalizing poll results across the country.

Main Points and Key Findings

Public Perception of the War

• US and NATO/ISAF Approval: Approval of the United States has dropped from 83% in 2005 to 47% today, with a significant decline in 2008. Similarly, support for NATO/ISAF has fallen from 67% in 2006 to 37% in 2009.
• Security Perception: Only 42% of Afghans see Western forces as effective in providing security, down from 67% in 2006. In high-conflict areas like Helmand, security ratings are even lower.
• Civilian Casualties: 77% of Afghans view U.S. or NATO/ISAF air strikes as unacceptable due to civilian casualties, with 41% blaming the forces for poor targeting.
• Taliban Support: Despite being seen as a threat, the Taliban still has some support, particularly in the South and East. 22% of Afghans say the group has at least some support in their area, with 57% in the Southwest and 64% in Kandahar.
• Taliban's Image: 24% of Afghans believe the Taliban has become more moderate, though this is not widespread.
• Violence Perception: The Taliban is seen as the biggest danger by 58% of Afghans. However, support for negotiations with the Taliban is high, with 64% of Afghans believing the government should negotiate if the Taliban agrees to stop fighting.

Government and Institutions

• Afghan Government Support: Support for the central government has declined from 81% in 2007 to 65% now. In high-conflict areas, support for provincial governments is also low.
• Security Forces: The Afghan army and police are popular, with 55% and 57% of Afghans rating their performance positively, respectively. However, they are seen as ineffective in high-threat areas.
• Corruption: 85% of Afghans consider corruption a problem, with 63% calling it a big problem. Corruption negatively impacts public perception of the government and its effectiveness.

Economic and Social Conditions

• Economic Hardship: 47% of Afghans expect a better life for their children, while only 51% expect improvement for themselves. 58% report difficulty affording necessities.
• Basic Needs: 55% have no electricity, 93% earn less than $300 a month, and 48% cannot read. Food and fuel affordability have become major issues.
• Reconstruction and Development: While 73% support foreign aid organizations, only 51% believe they are making progress. Reconstruction efforts are seen as failing in high-combat areas.

Regional Variations

• South and East Provinces: These regions show the most negative opinions toward Western forces and the most support for the Taliban. In Helmand, 14% feel safe, and 63% believe the Taliban has grown stronger.
• Kabul: The capital shows more moderate views, with 33% supporting the central government and 46% believing the country is headed in the right direction.
• Northern Provinces: These areas generally show more positive views of the government and less support for the Taliban.

Blame for Violence

• Taliban and Insurgents: 36% of Afghans blame U.S., Afghan, or NATO forces for violence, up from 13% in 2006. The Taliban is still the most commonly blamed group (27%).
• Local Commanders and Warlords: These are also seen as a source of violence, though less so than the Taliban.
• Foreign Forces: 25% of Afghans believe attacks on Western forces can be justified, with this number rising to 44% in areas affected by coalition bombing.

Summary of Polling Results

Conclusion

The poll highlights a complex and deeply divided Afghan public, with sharp regional and provincial differences in opinions about the war, government, and foreign forces. While the Taliban remains a significant threat and source of concern, it does not have broad support. The Afghan government and security forces are seen as necessary but ineffective in many areas. Public dissatisfaction with the war and its impact on daily life continues to grow, with economic hardship and civilian casualties being major factors. The data also suggest that while some progress has been made in infrastructure and education, the overall perception of the war's impact is increasingly negative.