2025-06-10-Jefferies-爱维吉公司（EVRG）_堪萨斯员工在费率案中的强劲起点_规划前行道路_买入_14页_852kb

Evergy (EVRG) Equity Research Summary

Evergy, Inc. (EVRG) is a utility holding company focused on regulated operations in the Midwest U.S., with assets in electricity generation, transmission, and distribution, complemented by unregulated segments. The Jefferies report maintains a "Buy" rating with an updated price target of $78, reflecting an increase from the previous $77, due to improved financial outlooks and regulatory advancements.

Key financial highlights include:

• Consensus and JEF EPS projections show strong growth, with a 5-year CAGR adjusted to 6.7%-6.8% from the prior 6.4%-6.5%, driven by reduced equity dilution and increased regulatory support.
• The company aims for its 2027 EPS to reach $4.63, compared to consensus $4.50, with capex rising to $3.75 billion by 2027.
• A sustainable dividend payout ratio targets 64-70%, underpinning shareholder returns.

Growth prospects are bolstered by regulatory improvements, particularly in Kansas, where the Kansas Corporation Commission approved a 9.7% ROE for Kansas Central, an improvement from prior settlements. This, coupled with load growth opportunities (4-5%) and capital expenditure plans updating the 2025 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP), supports potential EPS guidance increases to 5-7% by year-end, contingent on factors like commission decisions in July.

Major risks include regulatory outcomes, state-level policy changes, IR uncertainty, economic volatility, supply chain issues, and environmental risks. Sustainability efforts, such as renewable energy transition and carbon reduction targets (70% reduction by 2030, net-zero by 2045), are central to the company's strategy.

The investment thesis emphasizes higher risk-adjusted returns, with opportunities for re-rating due to capital plans and regulatory latitude. Notable catalysts include the Kansas Central Rate Case resolution, Capital Plan refresh, large load announcements, and potentially JSN issuances.

Overall Recommendation: Maintain Buy rating due to favorable regulatory backdrop, load growth, and valuation upside.