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报告摘要

EM STRATEGY | DAILY Summary - 18 April 2018

Core Content Overview

This document provides a daily summary of emerging markets (EM) strategy insights, focusing on key economic and financial developments in South Africa, Turkey, China, and Latin America (Latam), particularly Argentina. It is produced by BNP Paribas and includes analysis from various EM research teams.

Key Market Insights

South Africa

CPI Forecast: The March CPI is expected to decline slightly to 3.9% y/y from 4.0% in February, with the core inflation rate remaining unchanged at 4.1%.
Inflation Trends: Headline inflation has dropped to its lowest level in four years.
Central Bank Outlook: The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) revised its 2019 and 2020 inflation forecasts downward. The SARB is now projected to only hike rates once before the end of 2019, down from two in January.
Rate Cut Expectation: A 25bp rate cut is still expected in July.
Currency Performance: The ZAR has seen a slowdown in appreciation, but remains resilient compared to other CEEMEA currencies. Investors are still holding long rand positions, reducing the risk of a forced sell-off.

Turkey

Political Developments: The MHP leader Bahceli called for an early election, leading to lira volatility. President Erdogan will meet with Bahceli at 1:30pm local time.
Economic Impact: Early elections may reduce concerns over excessive economic stimulus and external imbalances in the long term.
Policy Outlook: We expect a 50bp rate hike in the next Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on 25 April.
Bond Market: Strong demand at the 5y fixed coupon bond auction with a bid-cover ratio of 4.2, above the long-term average of 2.2.
Recommendation: Buy 10y local bonds, FX unhedged.

China

Monetary Policy: The PBoC cut Required Reserve Ratios (RRR) by 1% for a wide range of commercial banks, effective 25 April.
Policy Shift: This is seen as part of a long-term trend moving from RRR to a market-driven interest rate corridor.
Economic Data: First-quarter GDP growth was 6.8%, slightly below the previous quarter but still resilient. Growth momentum is weakening due to slowing manufacturing, utilities production, exports, infrastructure investment, inflation, and total social financing (TSF).
Market Reaction: Bonds rallied 15bp on the 10y, and CNO xcy swaps traded lower by 12bps, indicating market interpretation of easing.

Latam Insights

Argentina

Central Bank Tone: The central bank's Q2 2018 Monetary Policy Report (IPoM) press conference was hawkish.
Inflation Outlook: Inflation is expected to moderate too little for comfort.
Policy Rate Forecast: The policy rate is now expected to end the year at 26.25%, a 250bp decrease from the end of last year, down from the previous expectation of 600bp in rate cuts.
Governor Statement: Governor Federico Sturzenegger expressed discomfort with March's above-target CPI print.

Strategy Contacts

Strategist	Job Title	Legal Entity	Phone
Wike Groenenberg	Head of Emerging Markets Research, CEEMEA & APAC	BNP Paribas London Branch	+44 20 7595 8746
Marcelo Carvalho	Head of Emerging Markets Research, Latam	Banco BNP Paribas Brasil S.A. (Sao Paulo)	+55 11 3841 3418
Piotr Chwieczak	FX & IR CEEMEA Strategist	BNP Paribas London Branch	+44 20 7595 8715
Sai Ulluri	FX & IR CEEMEA Strategist	BNP Paribas London Branch	+44 20 7595 1872
Erkin Isik, CFA	FX & IR CEEMEA Strategist	Turk Ekonomi Bank A.S. (Istanbul)	+90 216 635 2987
Mirza Baig	Head of FX & IR Asia Strategy	BNP Paribas Singapore Branch	+65 6210 3262
Dawn Kwa	FX & IR Asia Strategy	BNP Paribas Singapore Branch	+65 6210 3263
Altaz Daga	Graduate AU/NZ IR Strategist	BNP Paribas Singapore Branch	+65 6210 4994
Kun Shan	China Strategist	BNP Paribas China Limited (Shanghai)	+86 21 2896 2773
Tianhe Ji	China Strategist	BNP Paribas China Limited (Beijing)	+86 10 6535 0836
Gabriel Gersztein	Head FX & IR Latam Strategy	Banco BNP Paribas Brasil S.A. (Sao Paulo)	+55 11 3841 3421
Samuel Castro	FX & IR Latam Strategist	Banco BNP Paribas Brasil S.A. (Sao Paulo)	+55 11 3841 3492
Gustavo Mendonca	FX & IR Latam Strategist	Banco BNP Paribas Brasil S.A. (Sao Paulo)	+55 11 3841 3445

Additional Information

Online Resources:
- BNP Paribas Global Markets Website: www.globalmarkets.bnpparibas.com
- BNP Paribas Strategy Website: Not specified
Bloomberg:
- Fixed Income Research (BPFR)
- G10 Interest Rate Research (BPBS)
- Emerging Markets Research (BPFR)
- Market Economics (BPEC)

Legal Notice

This document is non-independent research and may be subject to conflicts of interest.
It is a marketing communication and not investment research.
BNPP may make a market in, or deal in, the securities or derivatives mentioned.
No liability is accepted for any losses arising from reliance on this document.
Performance data may be based on back-testing and is not indicative of future results.
The document does not constitute a prospectus or public offering.
It is for the use of intended recipients only and may not be distributed without prior written consent.

US Disclosures

Options: Complex instruments suitable only for sophisticated investors.
ETFs: May involve tracking error, currency, and geopolitical risks.
Securities: Some may not be registered under US securities laws and are considered "restricted securities."
Distribution: Limited to institutional investors and may be subject to specific regulations.

UK Disclosures

This document is communicated by BNP Paribas London Branch.
Registered in England and Wales under no. FC13447.
Lead supervised by ECB and ACPR.

France Disclosures

The report is produced and/or distributed by BNPP SA and/or BNPP Arbitrage.
BNPP SA is authorized and supervised by ECB and ACPR.
BNPP Arbitrage is an unlimited liability company registered with the Paris Trade and Companies Registry.