2016年-WEF世界经济论坛_Future_of_Oil_amp_Gas_8页_1mb

Future of Oil & Gas Summary

Core Content

The Future of Oil & Gas white paper, published in April 2016, examines the evolving landscape of the oil and gas industry in the context of global economic, environmental, and social challenges. It emphasizes the need for the industry to adapt to a future where climate change, regulatory uncertainty, and public trust are central concerns.

---

Main Challenges

• Climate Change: Rising concerns over greenhouse gas emissions and global warming have led to a re-evaluation of the role of oil and gas in the global energy system.
• Regulatory Uncertainty: Policies such as the Paris Climate Accords and increasing environmental regulations are creating a more complex regulatory environment.
• Economic Shifts: The shale boom in the US and technological advancements have reduced the cost of oil production, altering the traditional assumption of increasing OPEC dominance.
• Public Trust: The oil and gas industry faces a significant trust deficit, with public perception being negatively impacted by environmental failures, corruption scandals, and lobbying against climate policies.
• Community Relations: Deteriorating relationships with local communities due to environmental and social impacts have become a major challenge.

---

Key Trends in Future Demand

• Current Demand: Oil and natural gas account for approximately 31% and 21% of global primary energy use, respectively.
• IEA New Policies Scenario: Forecasts a 14% increase in oil demand from 90.6 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2014 to 103.5 million b/d by 2040.
• IEA 450 Scenario (2°C): Predicts a decline in oil demand to 74.1 million b/d by 2040, with coal consumption falling by 38% and natural gas rising by 16%.
• Statoil’s 2°C Renewal Scenario: Projects a 15% reduction in oil use by 2040 to below 80 million b/d, and a drastic decline in coal use to 14% of primary energy demand, with natural gas increasing to 24%.
• UC Davis Scenario: Suggests a temporary peak in oil demand in the transport sector by the 2030s, followed by a gradual increase due to population and wealth growth unless strong policy interventions occur.

---

Shifting Strategies for the Industry

• Investment and Production: Companies are shifting from a strategy of maximizing reserve additions to one that prioritizes cost efficiency, standardization, and low-cost solutions.
• Leaner Operations: The industry is expected to become leaner and more efficient in both execution and operation, driven by consolidation, competitive pressures, and collaboration with suppliers.
• Technological Innovation: A new technical revolution involving AI, automation, and remote management is anticipated to reduce costs and improve margins.
• Diversification: The industry must consider developing low-carbon energy sources as supplements or replacements for traditional oil and gas revenue streams, especially in the electricity sector.
• Stakeholder Value: The industry must create a value proposition that aligns with stable production and bottom-line growth, addressing the need for transparency, performance, and accountability.

---

Trust and Reputation Management

• Public Perception: The oil and gas industry is seen as less trustworthy than many other sectors, with a 2013 Gallup poll ranking it as the least trusted industry.
• Environmental Performance: Companies must address methane leakage, product losses, and resource recycling to align with societal expectations and technical solutions.
• Corruption and Governance: The industry is plagued by corruption scandals such as Petrobras and Nigerian government incidents, which undermine project development and government approvals.
• Stakeholder Engagement: Non-technical risks, particularly stakeholder-related risks, are a major concern, with nearly half of all project risks being non-technical.

---

Addressing Trust and Regulatory Uncertainty

• Industry Standards: The paper suggests adopting transparent reporting standards, verification methods, and best-in-class performance metrics, similar to those in the nuclear and airline industries.
• Collaborative Frameworks: Pooling arrangements (e.g., tanker pools, Canadian Oil Sands Innovation Alliance) can reduce price volatility and improve cooperation during supply emergencies.
• Partnerships with Regulators: Engaging with institutions like EITI and SASB can help promote ethical practices and improve transparency.
• Infrastructure Transition: Collaborating with vehicle manufacturers and equipment suppliers can help improve end-use carbon efficiency and facilitate infrastructure transitions.
• Regulatory Dialogue: Engaging in discussions with regulators on framework conditions for stable electricity supply and flex-fuel technologies is crucial.

---

Contributors and Leadership

• Chair: Amy Myers Jaffe, Executive Director, Energy Programme, University of California, Davis.

• Vice Chair: Jeroen van der Veer, Chairman / member of Supervisory boards of various Companies.

• Council Members: A diverse group of experts from academia, industry, and international organizations, including:

  • David Hobbs, King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center
  • Iftikhar Nasir, Inaverve Ltd
  • Duncan Wood, The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
  • Renato T. Bertani, Barra Energia do Brasil Petróleo e Gás Ltda
  • Tonye Cole, Sahara Group Limited
  • Atul Arya, IHS Inc.
  • Valerie Marcel, Chatham House
  • Jose Manuel Carrera, Pemex
  • Ed Whittingham, Pembina Institute
  • Katherine Richard, Warwick Energy Group
  • Xu Xiaojie, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
  • Adrian Lajous, Columbia University
  • Badr Jafar, Crescent Petroleum
  • Arthur Hanna, Accenture Strategy
  • Eirik Waerness, Statoil ASA
  • Gordon Lambert, Suncor

• World Economic Forum Members:

  • Maciej Kolaczkowski, Community Lead, Oil and Gas Industry
  • Roderick Weller, Project Specialist, Centre for Global Industries

---

Conclusion

The oil and gas industry is at a crossroads, facing a transition to a low-carbon future, increased regulatory scrutiny, and growing public skepticism. To remain relevant and profitable, the industry must rethink its strategies, improve transparency, and address both technical and non-technical risks. The Global Agenda Council on the Future of Oil & Gas highlights the importance of collaboration, innovation, and ethical leadership in navigating these challenges and ensuring a smooth transition to a more sustainable energy system.