2023-06-13-未来能源研究所-启发心理模型理解支持和反对太阳能地球工程研究的推理_26页_483kb

Summary: Eliciting Mental Models for Understanding Reasoning for and Against Solar Geoengineering Research

Purpose and Context

• Solar geoengineering (SG) is examined as a potential "research topic" for climate change mitigation, contrasting with deployment concerns.
• The study uses fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) to map the reasoning of experts for and against SG research, distinguishing between laboratory-based and small-scale field research.

Methods

• Employed a mixed-methods approach with four expert participants and a survey design based on literature review concepts.
• Used a fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) methodology to model causal relationships between factors influencing SG research opinions.
• Participants were surveyed and interviewed to refine mental models, focusing on their beliefs about net societal impacts.

Key Findings

• Attitudes and Opinions: Experts showed variability; some support both research types, some oppose both, and others support only laboratory research.
• Correlations: Stronger support for in-lab research was negatively correlated with perceived feasibility of meeting temperature targets without geoengineering.
• Research Distinguishments: Attitudes differed significantly between in-lab and small-scale field research, with the latter facing more opposition due to sociopolitical and governance concerns.
• Reasoning and Governance: Both supporters and opponents emphasized precautions, but diverged on governance; supporters advocated for responsible research with safeguards, opponents called for moratoriums or international oversight to address equity and militarization risks.
• Net Impacts: Results indicated that increasing SG research could lead to lower societal risks under certain conditions, while deployment without research posed additional societal dangers.

Contributions

• First application of FCM to analyze SG research reasoning, providing a nuanced approach to expert opinions.
• Highlighted the necessity of differentiating between research types and underlined the role of governance in shaping discourse, suggesting insights for policy and future research.