世界银行-被迫流离失所_专制领导的延续与原籍国的发展（英）-2025.1_102页_4mb

Forced Displacement and Development in Origin Countries: Evidence from Venezuela

This paper examines how forced displacement affects development and perpetuates autocratic rule in origin countries using the case of Venezuela. The study leverages municipal-level foreign settlement data and nightlight density from 1992-2021 to identify exogenous variation in out-migration following international oil price shocks after 2013.

Key Findings

1. Economic Impact:

   • Municipalities with higher foreign settlement shares in 1990 experienced significant reductions in economic growth (-12.6% average decline in nightlight density) and increased inequality after 2013. A 1 percentage point higher foreign settlement share associated with approximately 1.6% decline in nightlight density five years post-migration.
   • These areas hosted most of the productive population who migrated, reducing aggregate productivity

2. Electoral Effects:

   • Forced displacement reduced electoral turnout and opposition support by 4.47 and 2.62 percentage points respectively after 2013. This weakened the opposition and reduced momentum for social change despite voters fleeing crises

3. Crime Expansion:

   • Migration flows increased activities of organized criminal networks exploiting vulnerable migrants. Specifically:
     • Collaboration by criminal networks from Colombia and Venezuela increased
     • Human trafficking and drug networks expanded in migration corridors
     • Deferred prosecution and political connections facilitated this expansion

Mechanisms

• The "exit-voice" hypothesis holds that emigration reduces pressure for domestic reforms
• Positive selection of migrants (skilled professionals) exacerbates the negative impact
• Reduction in opposition vote share partially explains persistence of autocratic rule

Robustness

• Results persist controlling for oil fields, migration distances to border crossing, local government actions, spatial autocorrelation
• Effects detected using criminal activity data and alternative specification tests
• Documented patterns align with journalistic evidence of regime-criminal collaboration

Conclusion

The findings demonstrate a constrained pathway to reform pressuring autocratic leaders when citizens emigrate rather than vote. The economic and institutional deterioration accompanying forced displacement creates mutually reinforcing degradation – declining private investment, expanded illicit activity, reduced political accountability, and further population flight. This highlights how governance crises may become self-reinforcing through migratory patterns.