> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** ```markdown # Sinotruk (Hong Kong) (3808 HK) Summary ## Core Content Sinotruk (3808 HK) reported a strong performance for the first half of 2026 (1H26), with net profit rising 26% year-over-year (YoY) to RMB4.3bn, exceeding expectations. The company proposed an interim dividend of HK\$1.18 per share, which represents a 65% payout ratio, up from 57% in the full year of 2025. The target price (TP) remains at HK\$46, reflecting the company's strong export growth potential. ## Key Financial Highlights (1H26) - **Revenue**: Increased by 39.2% YoY to RMB70,841 million - **Cost of Sales**: Rose by 41.2% YoY to RMB61,009 million - **Gross Profit**: Grew by 28.3% YoY to RMB9,833 million - **Segment Profit (HDT)**: Increased by 20% YoY to RMB4.9bn, with a segment margin expansion of 1.96ppts to 6.7% - **Segment Loss (LDT)**: Substantially reduced by 82% YoY to RMB32 million - **EBITDA**: Rose by 16.2% YoY to RMB5,901 million ## Segment Performance - **HDT (Heavy Duty Trucks)**: - Delivered 194,000 units in 1H26, up 42% YoY - Domestic sales: 85,293 units (+26% YoY) - Export sales: 108,351 units (+57% YoY) - New energy HDT sales grew 1.4x YoY - **LDT (Light Duty Trucks)**: - Sales volume was flat YoY at 62,608 units - Segment loss decreased significantly to RMB32 million ## Financial Outlook and Valuation - **Earnings Summary**: - Revenue is expected to grow steadily from FY24A to FY28E - Net profit is projected to increase from RMB5,858.4 million in FY24A to RMB9,822 million in FY28E - EPS is forecasted to rise from RMB2.57 in FY25A to RMB3.56 in FY28E - P/E ratio is expected to decline from 15.9 in FY24A to 9.6 in FY28E - P/B ratio is projected to decrease from 2.3 in FY24A to 1.6 in FY28E - Dividend yield is expected to increase from 3.4% in FY24A to 6.0% in FY28E - **Valuation Metrics**: - Current Price: HK\$39.70 - Target Price: HK\$46.00 - Up/Downside: 15.9% ## Key Assumptions and Projections - **Sales Volume**: - Truck: Expected to grow from 415,276 units in 2025 to 573,274 units in 2028 - HDT: Projected to increase from 292,140 units in 2025 to 397,519 units in 2028 - China: Sales are expected to grow from 138,772 units in 2025 to 160,473 units in 2028 - Export: Sales are forecasted to rise from 153,368 units in 2025 to 237,046 units in 2028 - **Segment Revenue Growth**: - Truck: 15.7% growth in 2025 to 2026 - HDT: 13.7% growth in 2025 to 2026 - LDT: Expected to remain stable - Finance: Growth in revenue and operating profit - **Segment Operating Margin**: - Truck: Expected to remain around 7.6% to 7.8% - HDT: Projected to increase to 8.5% by 2028 - LDT: Expected to improve from -1.5% in 2025 to 0.2% in 2028 - Finance: Operating margin is expected to remain at 25.5% ## Analyst Ratings - **BUY (Maintain)**: Based on the potential for a 15.9% return over the next 12 months - **CMBIGM Ratings**: - **BUY**: Stock with potential return of over 15% - **HOLD**: Stock with potential return of +15% to -10% - **SELL**: Stock with potential loss of over 10% - **NOT RATED**: Not rated by CMBIGM - **OUTPERFORM**: Industry expected to outperform the broad market - **MARKET-PERFORM**: Industry expected to perform in-line with the broad market - **UNDERPERFORM**: Industry expected to underperform the broad market ## Key Risks 1. **Slowdown of overseas expansion**: Potential challenges in expanding into international markets 2. **High base of HDT sales in China**: Over-reliance on domestic sales could affect growth ## Shareholding and Stock Data - **Shareholding Structure**: - CNHTC: 51.0% - MAN SE: 25.0% - **Stock Performance**: - Market Cap: HK\$109,611.7 million - 3-Month Trading Range: HK\$414.5 million - 52-Week High/Low: HK\$47.56 / HK\$20.58 - Total Issued Shares: 2,761.0 million ## Dividend and Share Award Scheme - **Interim Dividend**: HK\$1.18/share - **Performance Target for Revenue**: Expected to be met with actual revenue slightly above target - **Sales Profit Margin**: Increased from 7.5% to 8.2% in 2024, with a target of 8.5% for 2026 ## Financial Summary - **Income Statement**: - Revenue: Expected to grow from RMB85,041 million in 2023A to RMB152,556 million in 2028E - Net Profit: Projected to increase from RMB5,318 million in 2023A to RMB9,822 million in 2028E - **Balance Sheet**: - Total Assets: Expected to rise from RMB121,785 million in 2023A to RMB179,364 million in 2028E - Total Equity and Liabilities: Projected to increase from RMB121,785 million in 2023A to RMB179,364 million in 2028E - **Cash Flow**: - Net cash from operations is expected to increase from RMB11,397 million in 2023A to RMB13,596 million in 2028E - **Profitability Metrics**: - Gross Profit Margin: Expected to stabilize around 15.5% - Operating Margin: Projected to increase from 7.4% to 7.8% - EBITDA Margin: Expected to remain around 9.1% - ROE: Projected to rise to 17.7% by 2028E ## Gearing and Liquidity - **Net Debt to Equity**: Expected to rise from -0.4 in 2023A to 0.7 in 2028E - **Current Ratio**: Expected to remain around 1.1 - **Receivable Turnover Days**: Projected to remain stable - **Inventory Turnover Days**: Expected to increase slightly - **Payable Turnover Days**: Projected to decrease slightly ## Valuation Bands - **P/E Band**: Expected to decline from 17.7 in 2023A to 9.6 in 2028E - **P/B Band**: Projected to decrease from 2.3 in 2023A to 1.6 in 2028E - **EV/EBITDA Band**: Expected to remain stable ## Disclaimer - This report is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice - The information is based on publicly available data and CMBIGM's estimates - There may be risks associated with investing in Sinotruk, and actual results may differ from projections - The report does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided - CMBIGM is not a registered broker-dealer in the United States and may not be suitable for all investors ```