卡内基国际和平基金会-NATO-s-Eastern-Flank-and-Its-Future-Relationship-With-Russia_1页_156kb

NATO's Eastern Flank and Future Relationship with Russia Summary

Core Content

The document, authored by Judy Dempsey, discusses the ongoing challenges and strategic considerations for NATO in reinforcing its Eastern flank in response to Russia's actions, particularly the annexation of Crimea and the invasion of eastern Ukraine. It emphasizes the need for a more comprehensive and long-term strategy to address the evolving security environment and strengthen the alliance's deterrence and resilience capabilities.

Main Points

• Russia's Actions and NATO Response:
  Russia's annexation of Crimea and invasion of Ukraine have led to a unified NATO response, with increased military presence and defense measures. However, the process of strengthening the Eastern flank is not yet complete.

• Divided Assessments Among NATO Members:
  There is a lack of consensus among NATO countries regarding the threat posed by Russia, especially concerning the likelihood of an invasion of the Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania). This division undermines the alliance's solidarity and cohesion.

• Current Deployment Strategy:
  NATO has implemented modest rotating deployments to the Eastern flank, but these are seen as having limited deterrence value. Member states in the south of the alliance feel that NATO is not providing sufficient security support, which weakens the overall alliance unity.

• Logistical Challenges:
  The alliance faces significant logistical hurdles in rapidly deploying troops, tanks, and equipment across Europe to the Eastern flank, which could hinder its ability to respond effectively to potential threats.

• Resilience and Cyber Vulnerabilities:
  While NATO has long recognized the importance of resilience in its own territory, it has not fully applied this principle to address cyber vulnerabilities. Critical infrastructure such as transportation networks, energy grids, and hospitals is at risk from cyber attacks.

• NATO-Russia Relations:
  The NATO-Russia Founding Act, signed 20 years ago, is considered outdated in the current geostrategic context. It allows for limited dialogue through the NATO-Russia Council, but this mechanism is no longer effective. Germany, in particular, is resistant to revising the act, and there is a lack of discussion on alternative approaches.

Key Recommendations

• Develop a Comprehensive Russia Strategy:
  NATO should engage in a frank and detailed discussion about its long-term strategy toward Russia, reconciling differing views among member states and addressing hybrid and cyber security threats.

• Permanent Military Presence in Eastern Flank Countries:
  The document suggests that NATO should consider permanently basing troops in the Baltic states and Poland to ensure a more stable and enduring reassurance of security.

• Establish a Military Schengen:
  A "Military Schengen" agreement is proposed to facilitate the unhindered movement of troops, aircraft, tanks, trains, and equipment across Europe to the Eastern flank countries.

• Revise or Replace the NATO-Russia Founding Act:
  The Founding Act is deemed obsolete and should be revised or replaced with new options that reflect the current strategic realities. The NATO-Russia Council is also seen as having reached the end of its usefulness.

Conclusion

The document highlights the need for NATO to move beyond its current reactive measures and adopt a more proactive, unified, and resilient strategy in dealing with Russia. It calls for a re-evaluation of the alliance's approach to security, including the development of a new framework for relations with Russia and the establishment of a more permanent and robust military presence on the Eastern flank.

About the Author

Judy Dempsey is a nonresident senior fellow at Carnegie Europe and the editor in chief of the Strategic Europe blog. Her work focuses on European security and international relations.

Contact

• Christine Lynch
  Communications Director
  +3222092993
  clynch@ceip.org

Carnegie Europe

The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace is a global network of policy research centers dedicated to advancing peace through analysis and policy development. The views expressed in this document are the author's own and do not represent institutional positions.