20160707-谷歌-e-conomy_SEA__Unlocking_the__200_billion_digital_opportunity_in_Southeast_Asia_34页_833kb

e-conomy SEA: Unlocking the $200 Billion Digital Opportunity in Southeast Asia

Core Content Summary

This report by Google and Temasek outlines the potential growth of the Southeast Asian (SEA) internet economy, projecting it to reach $200 billion by 2025, driven by the expansion of eCommerce, online travel, and online media sectors. The analysis is based on four independent data sources, including proprietary Google data, Temasek research, expert interviews, and secondary data from global institutions.

Main Viewpoints

• Rapid Internet Growth: SEA is the world's fastest-growing internet region, with an internet user base of 260 million in 2015 expected to reach 480 million by 2020 (3.8 million users per month). By 2025, it is projected to have ~1.4 trillion USD in retail market size, with eCommerce growing at 32% CAGR and online travel at 15% CAGR.
• eCommerce Dominance: The first-hand eCommerce market is expected to reach $88 billion by 2025, significantly outpacing offline retail (7% CAGR). Indonesia is forecasted to be the largest market, reaching $46 billion, followed by Vietnam, Philippines, Thailand, and Malaysia.
• Online Travel Expansion: The online travel market (hotels, airlines, and rides) is projected to reach $90 billion by 2025. Hotels + airlines will account for 85% of the market, with Low Cost Carriers (LCCs) driving growth due to their higher online penetration.
• Online Media Growth: The online media sector (ads + gaming) is expected to reach $20 billion by 2025, growing at 18% CAGR. Mobile gaming revenue per user is set to increase by 3.6x, and the mobile segment will grow to 75% of total GMV.
• Investment Requirements: To unlock the $200 billion internet economy, $40-50 billion in additional investment is needed over the next decade. This assumes VC investment as a percentage of GDP reaches levels similar to India, with SEA GDP growing at 5.3% CAGR.

Key Sectors and Projections

eCommerce

• Expected to grow to $88 billion by 2025.
• Indonesia will be the largest market, reaching $46 billion.
• Vietnam, Philippines, Thailand, and Malaysia will also be significant markets.
• Number of online transactions is the main growth driver, expected to grow at 27% CAGR.

Online Travel

• Projected to reach $90 billion by 2025, with hotels + airlines accounting for $77 billion.
• Indonesia will be the largest market, comprising 32% of online travel in SEA by 2025.
• Thailand is expected to be the second-largest market due to its booming tourism industry.
• Online rides (e.g., Grab, Uber) are projected to reach $13 billion by 2025, with Indonesia leading in growth at 22% CAGR.

Online Media

• Revenue is expected to grow to $20 billion by 2025, with mobile gaming contributing significantly.
• Revenue per mobile gamer is projected to increase by 3.6x, driven by higher engagement and growth in GDP per capita.

Challenges to Overcome

Talent and Engineering

• Limited senior developer and leadership talent in the region.
• Startups often rely on expat talent from China and the US.
• Tech-focused educational programs are needed to create a future talent pipeline.

Funding and M&A

• VC investment is concentrated in seed stage, with less than 7% of startups raising post-seed funding.
• Lack of a healthy M&A system; most large players in SEA build from scratch rather than acquiring startups.

Payment Mechanisms

• High reliance on Cash on Delivery (COD) due to limited e-payment options.
• No scalable alternatives to bankcards or services like Alipay.
• This increases risk and cost for merchants.

Internet Infrastructure

• Low internet speeds and penetration in most SEA countries.
• Philippines has the 2nd slowest internet in Asia due to duopoly structures and geographical challenges.
• Innovative PPP initiatives (e.g., Project Loon) are needed to improve connectivity.

Logistics Infrastructure

• Weak last-mile delivery systems outside Singapore.
• Topographical challenges (e.g., archipelagos) make delivery in Indonesia and Philippines slow and costly.
• Government investment is crucial to develop efficient road and rail networks.

Consumer Trust

• High levels of fraud and cyber attacks in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Philippines.
• Consumer concerns about online security are significant, with 58% of SEA citizens worried about sharing financial information online.
• Lack of regional governing bodies to address cybercrime and cross-border disputes.

SEA Startup and VC Landscape

• 7,000 startups in the region, with 80% located in Indonesia, Singapore, and Vietnam.
• eCommerce and logistics dominate investment, contributing 61.4% of total investments from 2010 to 2015.
• 4 unicorns (startups with >$1 billion valuation) exist in SEA, all in Singapore.
• Only ~450 startups (7%) have raised funding post-seed or been acquired.

Conclusion

The Southeast Asian internet economy is poised for exponential growth, but this requires addressing key challenges such as talent development, payment systems, internet infrastructure, logistics, and consumer trust. With $40-50 billion in investment, and a young, growing population, the region has the potential to become a $200 billion internet market by 2025.