2025-05-29-Jefferies-美国EDA管制可能无效但将推动本土化_7页_139kb

Summary of China (PRC) Semiconductors Equity Research

Market Overview & Policy Impact

The report discusses US export restrictions on Electronic Design Automation (EDA) tools to China. Although restrictions exist (requiring export licenses), their effectiveness is limited as they:

• Do not prevent Chinese companies from using TSMC foundry services
• Have workarounds like overseas servers/emulators
• Are undermined by prevalent industry piracy (with companies buying official licenses while using pirated versions)

Localization Acceleration

US EDA tool restrictions are expected to accelerate China's EDA technology localization. Key drivers:

• Market Competition: Companies like Empyrean, Primarius, and Semitronix are gaining market share from being restricted from collaborating with Chinese foundries (e.g., SMIC) on tool qualification.
• Technical Need: Chinese foundries need to work with EDA vendors to validate tools for new technology nodes. Without US collaboration, local companies can step in.
• Foundry Options: Chinese foundries may disclose internal models to local EDA vendors to speed up development.

Key Points

1. EDA Dominance: Synopsys, Cadence, and Siemens EDA together account for ~80% of the China EDA market.
2. Restriction Scope:
   • Affects EDA tools for advanced AI chips with specific node sizes (14nm or below) and transistor counts.
   • Doesn't restrict design capabilities at overseas foundries (like TSMC).
3. ** Piracy & Workarounds:** Piracy persists, and design teams use overseas infrastructure to overcome tool access limitations.
4. ** Localization Drivers:** Accelerated adoption of Chinese EDA tools due to restricted access to US vendors for foundry collaboration. Chinese foundries may collaborate with domestic EDA firms.

Valuation/Risks (TSMC Focus)

Price Targets

• Hong Kong Share: HKD 40.65 (BUY)
• A Share: CNY 82.01 (BUY)

Key Risks

• Supply Chain Risk: Delay in US license approvals for mature node equipment to SMIC could slow TSMC's global capacity expansion, impacting global shortages.
• Mature Node Demand: Stronger-than-expected demand from sectors like 5G, IoT, CIS could further increase average selling prices (ASP).