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2025 Global Trade Summary

Core Content

Global trade in goods and services grew by $2.5 trillion in 2025, reaching a total value of $35 trillion. This growth was broad-based, with East Asia and Africa showing the strongest performance, and South-South trade outperforming global trends. However, trade growth is expected to slow in 2026 due to geopolitical uncertainties, inflationary pressures, and rising trade costs.

Key Highlights

• Trade Growth: Global trade increased by 7.5% in 2025, driven by strong performance in goods and services.
• Regional Performance: East Asia and Africa led the growth, with South-South trade expanding by around 9% annually.
• Connector Economies: Several countries, including Egypt, Cambodia, Vietnam, and Thailand, emerged as connector economies, stabilizing trade flows amid U.S.-China decoupling.
• Sectoral Trends: Manufacturing expanded by about 11%, with electronics trade leading the growth. The automotive sector remained subdued due to protectionism.
• Trade Inflation: Trade inflation rebounded to nearly 1.5% in Q1 2026, suggesting that growth may be price-driven rather than volume-based.
• Services Trade: Services trade growth slowed, with elevated fuel costs and restrictions on cross-border data and digital services posing challenges.

Main Factors Influencing Trade

Negative Factors

• Geopolitical Tensions: The Middle East conflict and shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are major headwinds.
• Trade Costs: Rising tariffs, regulatory changes, and erosion of trade rules are increasing costs.
• Public and Private Debt: High debt levels in developing economies are constraining fiscal space and import demand.
• Global Overcapacity: Oversupply in key sectors like green and advanced manufacturing may lead to defensive trade measures.
• U.S.-China Decoupling: Trade between the U.S. and China fell by about 25% in 2025, but some countries benefited from this shift.

Positive Factors

• Digital and Green Sectors: Rapid growth in digital, AI, and environmental sectors is supporting trade.
• Resilient Demand: Emerging markets continue to show strong consumer and industrial demand.
• Regional Initiatives: Preferential access schemes, such as China's duty-free access for African exports and the potential renewal of the African Growth and Opportunity Act, offer trade benefits.
• Trade Sentiment: Many developing regions remain supportive of open trade and investment in cross-border commerce.

Trade Dynamics

• Trade Concentration: Trade flows became more concentrated among large economies, with a return to nearshoring and friendshoring.
• Bilateral Imbalances: Trade imbalances remained high, though some decreased, particularly with the U.S. and EU.
• Trade Dependence: Certain economies, like Indonesia and Vietnam, showed increased dependence on China, while others, such as Switzerland and Canada, saw a decline in dependence on the EU.

Sectoral Growth

• Agricultural Trade: Expanded strongly, led by animal products, cereals, and coffee, though momentum slowed in Q4.
• Natural Resources: Declined due to falling prices for mineral fuels.
• Manufacturing: Grew by 11%, driven by machinery and electronics.
• Electronics Trade: Continued to grow in Q4, supported by demand for AI-related goods.
• Automotive Trade: Remained below average, with growth limited to hybrid and combustion-engine vehicles.

Outlook

While 2025 saw robust trade growth, the outlook for 2026 is more cautious. Growth is expected to slow due to macroeconomic challenges, trade frictions, and geopolitical tensions. However, the expansion of South-South trade and resilient demand in emerging economies could provide some stability. The future of global trade will depend on how these challenges are managed and how trade policies evolve.