2012年-CEPS欧洲政策研究中心_Has_the_financial_crisis_shattered_citizens_trust_in_national_and_European_governmental_institutions_Evidence_from_the_EU_member_states_1999_32页_323kb

Summary: Has the Financial Crisis Shattered Citizens' Trust in National and European Governmental Institutions?

Core Content

This study investigates the impact of the financial crisis on citizens' trust in national and European governmental institutions across EU member states from 1999 to 2010. It explores the determinants of trust and how it has evolved during periods of economic stability and crisis.

Main Findings

• Trust in National Governments and Parliaments:

  • Trust in national governments and parliaments increased in the immediate aftermath of the financial crisis, contradicting the expectation that crises would erode trust.
  • This phenomenon is known as the "rally around the flag" effect, where citizens support their governments during times of crisis.
  • In the EU-15, trust in national institutions is primarily influenced by unemployment and GDP growth. During crises, trust is more closely linked to economic conditions, especially unemployment.
  • In the EU-27, trust in national institutions is more strongly associated with government debt. Countries that increased their debt significantly to bail out the financial sector or implement austerity measures saw a sharper decline in trust.

• Trust in European Institutions:

  • Trust in the European Commission and European Parliament declined during the financial crisis, though not as severely as trust in the ECB.
  • The decline in trust in European institutions is more pronounced during economic crises and is linked to real economic performance (unemployment and GDP growth).
  • The congruence model suggests that citizens use domestic information as a proxy for evaluating European institutions.
  • The compensation model indicates that high trust in national institutions may reduce trust in European ones, as citizens compare them to a higher standard.

• Theoretical and Empirical Background:

  • The popularity function theory posits that voters evaluate government performance based on economic outcomes, such as unemployment and inflation.
  • However, some studies suggest that trust in national institutions may not always be directly tied to economic performance, especially in the EU-27 where debt levels play a more critical role.
  • Trust in the EU is influenced by factors such as trust in national parliaments, satisfaction with EU democracy, and trust in the social security system.

Key Determinants of Trust

• Economic Factors:

  • Unemployment is a consistent determinant of trust in national institutions across all time periods.
  • Inflation affects trust only when the economy is stable; during crises, it is less relevant.
  • Government debt, especially when used for bailing out the financial sector or implementing austerity, significantly impacts trust in national and European institutions.

• Political Factors:

  • Trust in national institutions is influenced by the political system, including party structure, electoral performance, and public expectations.
  • The congruence and compensation models explain how citizens form opinions about European institutions based on their views of national ones.

Methodology

• Data Sources:

  • Eurobarometer surveys were used to measure trust in national and European institutions.
  • Data on GDP, unemployment, and inflation were sourced from Eurostat.
  • The financial crisis's impact on trust in the ECB was assessed using Special Eurobarometer data from January-February 2009.

• Model Specifications:

  • The model includes classical macroeconomic variables (inflation, GDP growth, unemployment) and government debt per GDP.
  • It also incorporates control variables such as country-specific dummies and political interest.
  • The study uses fixed-effects and dynamic fixed-effects models to address endogeneity and omitted variable bias.

• Empirical Analysis:

  • The analysis shows that trust in national institutions is more resilient during crises compared to European institutions.
  • In the EU-27, the relationship between debt and trust is more significant, suggesting that debt management plays a crucial role in shaping public perception of governance.
  • The study also identifies the importance of controlling for structural breaks and endogeneity in the analysis.

Conclusion

• The financial crisis did not uniformly erode trust in national and European institutions.
• Trust in national institutions increased initially after the crisis, while trust in European institutions, particularly the ECB, decreased significantly.
• In the EU-15, trust is closely tied to economic performance, especially unemployment.
• In the EU-27, trust is more strongly influenced by government debt, particularly when debt is used to bail out the financial sector or implement austerity measures.
• The findings highlight the complexity of trust dynamics in the EU, showing that economic and political factors interact in shaping public confidence in governance.

Key Information

• Time Period: 1999–2010 (with a focus on the financial crisis period)
• Countries Studied: EU-15 and EU-27
• Institutions Analyzed: National governments, national parliaments, European Commission, European Parliament, and the ECB
• Main Variables:
  • Net trust in institutions
  • Inflation
  • GDP growth
  • Unemployment
  • Government debt per GDP
• Estimation Techniques:
  • Fixed-effects (FE) models
  • Dynamic fixed-effects (DFGLS or DOLS) models
  • Control for endogeneity and omitted variables
• Theoretical Models:
  • Congruence model
  • Compensation model
  • Popularity function theory