20181114-兴业金融证券-Real_Estate__Ground_Checks__Positive_Takeaways_From_GBA_Visit_21页_2mb
报告摘要
Real Estate Sector Summary: Positive Takeaways from GBA Visit
Core Content
This report outlines the findings from a recent visit to the Greater Bay Area (GBA), focusing on the property markets in Zhongshan and Foshan. The analysis highlights the resilience of the physical markets in these cities despite the current unfavourable market sentiment and increasing risk aversion. The report also adjusts the target NAV discounts and target prices (TPs) for some developers, particularly Country Garden and Agile, and reiterates an OVERWEIGHT rating for the sector. Shimao Property, Country Garden, and CIFI are identified as top picks.
Main Points
- Market Resilience: The primary markets in Zhongshan and Foshan have remained strong, with reported sales performance in September and October 2018 showing a 25% and 43% month-over-month increase respectively.
- Discounts and Sell-Through Rates: Most developers did not offer significant discounts on new home sales, except Vanke, which provided a 50% discount on new parking lots. All projects visited had a sell-through rate of 80% or higher, with some projects achieving 100%.
- Cash Collection: Developers experienced strong cash collection due to a high percentage of homebuyers making 100% down payments (70% of total home buyers on average).
- Demand Composition: Demand is largely driven by local families (70–80%), with limited investment demand from other mainland cities (5–10%) and Hong Kong/Macau (25–30%).
- Policy Impact: The removal of automatic local citizenship through property purchases (effective Jan 2019) is expected to front-load demand in Foshan.
- Online Registration Relaxation: The relaxation of online registration approval for new property sales is anticipated to reduce the time required for mortgage applications, thus boosting sales in Zhongshan and Foshan.
- Company Ratings: The report maintains an OVERWEIGHT rating for the real estate sector, with 10 Buy, 2 Neutral, and 1 Sell ratings across 13 covered companies.
- Top Picks: Shimao Property (813 HK), Country Garden (2007 HK), and CIFI (884 HK) are highlighted as top picks.
- Target Price Adjustments: Target prices for Country Garden and Agile have been lowered due to increased risk aversion, with Country Garden's TP reduced to HKD20 and Agile's to HKD17.4.
Key Information
Summary of Key Observations
- Sell-Through Rates: All projects had a sell-through rate of 80% or higher, with some reaching 100%.
- Discounts: Only Vanke offered a significant discount (50% on parking lots), while other developers had minimal or no discounts.
- Online Registration: The online registration process for new property sales was a barrier to mortgage applications, but it is expected to be relaxed, thus boosting sales.
- Inventory Levels: Zhongshan had a high headline inventory level, but this was largely due to presold properties awaiting online registration. The real inventory level is significantly lower, indicating a strong supply-demand imbalance.
- Mortgage Demand: The delay in online registration led to a backlog of mortgage applications, and the easing of this requirement is expected to release a significant mortgage demand.
Policy Impact on Foshan
- Citizenship Policy: The new policy removing automatic citizenship for property purchasers will likely lead to an increase in home purchases in the next two months.
- School Enrollment: Homebuyers' children will no longer be allowed to enroll in public schools directly; they must participate in a point-based system.
- Commercial Apartments: These can now also be included in the citizenship point test, which could impact the market dynamics.
Company-Specific Highlights
- Country Garden (2007 HK): Maintains a BUY rating, with a target price of HKD20. The sell-through rate for its projects in Zhongshan and Foshan is high.
- Agile (3383 HK): Maintains a BUY rating, with a target price of HKD17.4. The target NAV discount has been raised to 50%.
- Vanke (2202 HK): Maintains a BUY rating, with a target price of HKD25.65.
- CIFI (884 HK): Maintains a BUY rating, with a target price of HKD7.90.
- Evergrande (3333 HK): Maintains a BUY rating, with a target price of HKD33.20.
- Shimao Property (813 HK): Maintains a BUY rating, with a target price of HKD30.80.
- Greentown China (3900 HK): Maintains a SELL rating, with a target price of HKD7.30.
Key Figures
Projects Visited in Zhongshan and Foshan
| Developer | Project Name (Chinese) | Location | New Launches in 2018 | ASP (CNY/sqm) | Product Type | Sell-Through Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Country Garden | 碧桂园·盛世名门 | Zhongshan (火炬开发区) | Late October, Late August, Mid May | 16,500–25,000 | Block 5, Block 4, Block 1–3 | 82%–100% |
| Vanke | 万科柏悦湾 | Zhongshan (市区核心, 博爱路旁) | Late September | 21,000 | Block 24–25 (4-bedroom apartments) | 92% |
| China Evergrande | 恒大绿洲 | Zhongshan (中山东区) | Last launch in 2017 | 15,500–16,500 | Phase 3 (3–4-bedroom apartments) | 92% |
| Agile | 雅居乐剑桥郡 | Zhongshan (中山西区) | Early September | 17,000 | Block 8&9 (3–4-bedroom apartments) | >80% |
| Country Garden | 碧桂园·盛世名门 | Foshan (禅城区) | Mid September, End April, Early Jan | 25,000–32,000 | 72 townhouses, 120 condos, 426 apartments | 80%–100% |
| Vanke | 万科金色里程 | Foshan (禅城区) | Early October | 13,000–18,000 | Apartments (31–45 sqm, 90–92 sqm) | >98% |
| China Evergrande | 恒大悦府 | Foshan (南海高新金融区) | Early September | 22,000–25,000 | Apartments (100–136 sqm) | 90%–99% |
Valuation and Performance Metrics
| Company | Stock Code | Price (HKD) | Mkt Cap (USDm) | 3-Month Avg T/O (USDm) | ENAV (HKD) | ENAV Discount (%) | P/E (FY18F) | P/E (FY19F) | P/BV (FY18F) | P/BV (FY19F) | Dividend Yield (%) | Share Price Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Country Garden | 2007 HK | 8.88 | 24,544 | 66.5 | 26.80 | 66.9 | 4.9 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 7.0 | -37.4 |
| Agile | 3383 HK | 9.19 | 4,597 | 11.4 | 34.70 | 74% | 4.1 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 11.6 | -22.5 |
| CIFI | 884 HK | 3.40 | 3,373 | 9.4 | 10.50 | 67.6 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 8.6 | -27.8 |
| China Vanke | 2202 HK | 25.65 | 37,788 | 29.4 | 44.00 | 36.3 | 7.8 | 6.7 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 4.3 | 22.0 |
| China Overseas | 688 HK | 25.05 | 35,048 | 53.3 | 43.20 | 42.0 | 6.7 | 5.7 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 10.1 | -0.4 |
| Evergrande | 3333 HK | 18.54 | 30,992 | 86.8 | 44.20 | 58.1 | 5.0 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 4.0 | -31.2 |
| CR Land | 1109 HK | 28.05 | 24,827 | 41.9 | 44.00 | 36.3 | 7.8 | 6.7 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 4.3 | 22.0 |
| Longfor | 960 HK | 20.45 | 15,488 | 14.2 | 35.60 | 42.6 | 8.3 | 6.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 4.9 | 4.5 |
| Sunac | 1918 HK | 22.45 | 12,629 | 72.9 | 42.90 | 47.7 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 3.6 | -30.6 |
| Shimao | 813 HK | 17.06 | 7,197 | 15.8 | 41.10 | 58.5 | 5.5 | 4.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 14.6 | 8.0 |
| China Jinmao | 817 HK | 3.46 | 5,104 | 4.4 | 5.23 | 33.8 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 2.7 | -39.0 |
| Guangzhou R&F | 2777 HK | 11.54 | 4,749 | 2.2 | 2.60 | 65.3 | 3.3 | N/A | 0.4 | N/A | 8.0 | -34.5 |
| KWG Property | 1813 HK | 5.99 | 2,427 | 8.4 | 21.80 | 72.5 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 10.1 | -29.7 |
| Yuexiu Property | 123 HK | 1.34 | 2,122 | 3.0 | 1.86 | 28.0 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 6.0 | -8.2 |
| Shui On Land | 272 HK | 1.69 | 1,740 | 1.6 | 5.90 | 71.4 | 5.8 | 5.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 6.0 | -21.8 |
| Kaisa | 1638 HK | 2.08 | 1,612 | 3.0 | 5.60 | 62.9 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 5.7 | -51.5 |
| Greentown China | 3900 HK | 5.67 | 1,570 | 7.9 | 20.80 | 72.7 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 4.3 | -43.6 |
| CSC | 1668 HK | 1.24 | 1,285 | 1.5 | 6.90 | 82.0 | 5.1 | 4.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 4.0 | -39.5 |
| COGO | 81 HK | 2.63 | 1,150 | 1.4 | 7.50 | 64.9 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 2.7 | -36.9 |
| Poly HK | 119 HK | 2.43 | 1,136 | 2.2 | 7.00 | 65.3 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 9.0 | -40.3 |
| Fantasia | 1777 HK | 0.88 | 648 | 0.7 | 2.60 | 66.2 | 3.3 | N/A | 0.4 | N/A | 8.0 | -38.1 |
Conclusion
The real estate sector in the GBA remains resilient, with strong performance in Zhongshan and Foshan. Despite the current market sentiment, the physical markets are expected to continue to perform well, supported by favorable policy changes and a relaxation of online registration processes. The report recommends maintaining an OVERWEIGHT rating on the sector, with Shimao, Country Garden, and CIFI as top picks. The target prices and NAV discounts have been adjusted for some developers, reflecting the current risk aversion in the market.
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