英文_高盛_阿西奥纳能源（ANE.MC）_2025-2026年市场共识盈利预期将进一步下调；维持卖出评级_12页_1006kb

Acciona Energia (ANE.MC) - Goldman Sachs Research Summary

• Company: Acciona Energia (ANE.MC), focused on energy utilities in Spain.
• Rating: Maintain Sell with a revised 12-month price target of €18.00 (down from €18.5), representing a ~1.2% downside from current price of €18.21.
• Core Recommendation: Due to consensus overestimation of future profits; expects downward earnings revisions, driven by declining installed base and modest negative power price adjustments.
• Key Financial Analysis:
  • EBITDA Decline: Forecasted to decrease 11.1% YoY in 2025 and another 3.7% in 2026, contrasting with Bloomberg's 5-10% increase in 2026E.
  • Net Income: Goldman Sachs estimates €135-145 mn (ex capital gains) for 2025-26, versus Bloomberg consensus of €180-220 mn, implying ~20-40% downside risk.
  • Capacity: Organically adding 600 MW in 2025 but plans to divest €1.5-1.7 bn, equivalent to at least 1 GW reduction in perimeter based on EV/MW multiples.
• Valuation Highlights:
  • Current Market Cap: €5.9 bn / $6.7 bn, Enterprise Value €9.7 bn.
  • SOTP: €19.2/share (unchanged), implying ~2.7% downside.
  • Peer comparison: Average implied peer upside 17%, while GS estimate shows ~9%.
• Key Risks and Upsides:
  • Downside: Continued divestments, unchanged power prices, slower capacity execution.
  • Upside: Higher power prices (€10/MWh increase boosts EBITDA by ~€100 mn), lower interest rates, faster capacity additions, higher IRRs on additions (>€3/share potential).
• Overall Assessment: Persists with bearish outlook due to structural declines in installed base and earnings potential; shares are rally-prone with upcoming EPS revisions likely to pressure prices.

Source: Goldman Sachs Research, 27 May 2025.