兰德公司-建立可持续的国际秩序概述（英文）-2018.5-32页-2mb

Summary of "Building a Sustainable International Order"

Core Content

The document discusses the postwar international order, which was established after World War II to prevent future conflicts and promote global stability through multilateralism, institutions, norms, and shared rules. This order is rooted in realist and normative foundations, with the United Nations (UN), General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), and a network of U.S. alliances as key pillars. The U.S. played a central role in shaping this order, which has promoted collective problem-solving, economic liberalization, and the spread of liberal values.

Main Views

• The postwar order is not merely a set of institutions, but also includes norms and practices that have become deeply embedded in international relations.
• The guiding coalition—a group of states that support the order—has been critical to its stability and success. These states are united by shared interests and values, and their cooperation has helped sustain the order.
• The order has undergone significant strain due to the ambitions of revisionist powers like China and Russia, as well as populist and nationalist reactions to the neoliberal economic model.
• Despite these challenges, the order has shown areas of resilience, particularly in trade, institutional participation, and conflict management.
• The U.S. role as a leader and architect of the order has provided strategic advantages, including legitimacy, influence, and reduced need for balancing by other states.

Key Information

The Postwar International Order

• Founded on realist and normative grounds, it includes:
  • Baseline global institutions and norms: UN system, G-7/8, G-20, G-77, BRICS, etc.
  • Security norms: Nonaggression, U.S. alliances, arms control, and regional security institutions.
  • Economic norms: Liberal trade, GATT/WTO, IMF, World Bank, BIS, and intellectual property laws.
  • Institutions for liberal values and collective goods: Human rights conventions, environmental frameworks, health and welfare organizations, and others.

The Guiding Coalition

• Composed of first-tier states (e.g., U.S., EU members, Japan, Australia, etc.) and second-tier states (e.g., Algeria, Egypt, Israel, etc.).
• These states form a stabilizing center of gravity in world politics, maintaining the gravitational pull of the global economy and constraining hostile actions.

Major Findings of the Study

1. The order is under unprecedented strain but retains areas of persistent strength.
2. Key institutions and norms remain robust enough to influence leading states.
3. The economic order is the engine of the broader geopolitical and security order.
4. Socialization effects have emerged, with norms like nonaggression becoming deeply ingrained in many states.
5. U.S. dominance must give way to a more multilateral and shared order to ensure its sustainability.
6. China's role is critical: its growing power and influence mean the order cannot survive without Beijing's support.
7. The U.S. investment in the postwar order is relatively cost-effective compared to the benefits it provides.

Challenges to the Order

• Ideological resistance to Western-led globalization and dissatisfaction with the neoliberal economic model.
• Geopolitical tensions with China and Russia, who are pursuing limited coercion strategies to avoid direct conflict with the order.
• Populist and nationalist movements are challenging the order from within, threatening its legitimacy and influence.

Strategic Value of the Order

• The order has legitimized and strengthened U.S. influence, providing a foundation for collective problem-solving.
• It has helped institutionalize and accelerate positive trends in global politics, such as economic growth, peace, and stability.
• The U.S. role as a leader has allowed it to tie its power to a broadly endorsed purpose, reducing the need for other states to balance against it.

Future Outlook

• The U.S. must reform and adapt the liberal international order to address inequality and slow growth.
• The order will be more robust and sustainable if it becomes more multilateral and shared, with equitable governance.
• The future of the order will depend on maintaining a balance between U.S. leadership and the inclusion of other major powers.

Conclusion

The postwar international order, though under strain, has been instrumental in promoting global stability and U.S. interests. However, its long-term sustainability depends on shifting toward a more inclusive and multilateral framework, particularly by engaging China more effectively and reforming the underlying economic and ideological models. The U.S. must continue to lead and shape the order but also accept the need for shared governance to ensure its resilience and relevance in an increasingly competitive and uncertain world.