2025-06-13-Jefferies-MoonLake_Immunotherapeutics（MLTX）_IL-17_23单克隆抗体处方追踪至06_06；Bimzelx在银屑病关节炎中实现3年持续缓解_10页_2mb

MoonLake Immunotherapeutics Summary

Core Content

MoonLake Immunotherapeutics is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on developing a novel anti-IL17 Nanobody, Sonelokimab, for the treatment of inflammation. The company was co-founded by Jorge Santos da Silva and Kristian Reich in 2021 and is headquartered in Zug, Switzerland. The document provides an equity research report with a Buy rating and a $65.00 price target, indicating a projected +48% increase from the current price of $44.02.

Key Highlights

Market Performance

• Bimzelx (UCB) demonstrated strong rebound in TRx/NRx for the week ending 06/06, with increases of +29% / +35%.
• Cosentyx, Taltz, Skyrizi, and Tremfya also showed increases in TRx/NRx, ranging from +17% to +35%.
• Bimzelx showed 3-year sustained responses in PsA, with ~53% of bio-naive patients and ~55% of TNFi-treated patients achieving ACR50 response, significantly higher than the ~45% at Week 16, indicating durable and deepening efficacy of IL-17A/F dual inhibitors.

Launch Performance

• Bimzelx's launch performance in HS appears to be stronger than its debut in PsO, suggesting potential for broader market success.
• The weekly and monthly growth data for IL-17 mAbs indicates a competitive landscape with varying performance across the market.

Key Data

Weekly TRx/NRx Growth (Week Ending 06/06)

• Bimzelx: TRx +26%, NRx +35%
• Cosentyx: TRx +18%, NRx +27%
• Taltz: TRx +19%, NRx +25%
• Skyrizi: TRx +25%, NRx +25%
• Tremfya: TRx +30%, NRx +35%

Monthly Growth (Month/Month)

• Bimzelx: TRx +10%, NRx +1%, RRx +16%
• Cosentyx: TRx -4%, NRx -6%, RRx -3%
• Taltz: TRx -3%, NRx -1%, RRx -1%

Analysts and Contact Information

• Kelly Shi, Ph.D. - Equity Analyst

  • Email: kshi@jefferies.com
  • Phone: (212) 336-6937

• Yifan Xu, Ph.D. - Equity Associate

  • Email: yxu4@jefferies.com
  • Phone: +1 (212) 778-8057

• Clara Dong, Ph.D. - Equity Analyst

  • Email: ydong1@jefferies.com
  • Phone: +1 (212) 284-2432

• Jose Lora, Ph.D. - Equity Associate

  • Email: jlora@jefferies.com
  • Phone: +1 (332) 236-6815

• Hangfei Fu, Ph.D. - Equity Associate

  • Email: hfu@jefferies.com
  • Phone: (212) 323-7562

Investment Recommendation

• Rating: Buy
• Price Target: $65.00
• Expected Total Return: 15% or more within 12 months
• Market Cap: $2.8B
• Float: 83.5%
• 52-Week High-Low: $58.26 - $31.42

Valuation Methodology

The price target is based on DCF valuation (WACC 14%, TG 0%) and is supported by a blend of P/E and NPV for other companies mentioned, such as Eli Lilly & Co and Novartis AG.

Risks

• MoonLake Immunotherapeutics: Clinical, regulatory, commercial, competitive, and financing risks.
• Eli Lilly & Co: Commercial, regulatory, and clinical risks.
• Novartis AG: Pricing/access, R&D, manufacturing, new launches, and LOEs risks.

Other Companies Mentioned

• Eli Lilly & Co (LLY): Price $812.03, Rating Buy
• Novartis AG (NOVN SW): Price CHF98.07, Rating Hold

Rating and Price Target History

• MoonLake Immunotherapeutics (MLTX): A history of Buy ratings with a price target of $65.00.
• Eli Lilly & Co (LLY): A history of Buy and Hold ratings.
• Novartis AG (NOVN SW): A history of Hold ratings.

Distribution of Ratings

Important Disclosures

• Jefferies may have conflicts of interest due to business relationships with companies covered in the report.
• The report is intended to be one of many factors in making investment decisions.
• The report is not intended to represent a recommended portfolio and is not sector-based.
• Jefferies' research may be affected by regulations and policies that limit updates.
• The price targets are based on currency conversion using the prior trading day's exchange rate.