> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # 2026 Economic Outlook and Market Strategy Summary ## Core Content This document outlines the **DBS Economics Outlook and Market Strategy for 2026**, highlighting the divergent economic paths of key regions, including the **US, Eurozone, Japan, and Asia-Pacific**, as well as the implications for **currencies, interest rates, credit markets, and equities**. --- ## Main Points ### Global Economic Outlook - **Global Growth**: Expected to slow only marginally in 2026, with a forecast of 3.1% GDP growth. - **Asia and Asean**: Growth is expected to remain relatively stable, with Asean-5 projected at 4.1% in 2026. - **Inflation**: Food and fuel inflation are not a major concern, but fiscal and monetary issues, particularly in the US, are causing worry. - **Resilience**: The global economy, especially trade-intensive Asia, has shown resilience despite trade tensions and geopolitical disruptions. - **Trade Dynamics**: The US-China trade deficit is expected to be the lowest in two decades, but the US overall trade balance is heading toward a deficit of USD1.4 trillion this year. - **Shift in Trade**: Countries are increasingly engaging in trade outside the US, leading to the concept of **TOTUS (Trade Outside the United States)**, which includes **Talent, Tech, Travel**. --- ## Key Regions Overview ### United States - **Growth**: Expected to grow at 1.5–2% in 2026, with no recession expected. - **Inflation**: Expected to remain around 2.8–2.5% for 2026, with the Fed prioritizing economic momentum over inflation. - **Interest Rates**: The Fed is expected to cut rates further, potentially reaching 3.5% by 2026, with a shift toward more accommodative monetary policy. - **Tech Investment**: A significant driver of growth, with a surge in investments in data centers and AI infrastructure. - **Currency**: The USD is expected to weaken slightly in 2025 and remain stable in 2026, but may face challenges due to de-dollarization efforts. - **Risks**: A potential stock market correction, erosion of institutional integrity, and loss of Fed independence could impact the outlook. ### Eurozone - **Growth**: Projected at 1.0% in 2026, with domestic demand offsetting weak trade performance. - **Inflation**: Expected to remain around 2.0%, with the ECB likely to maintain the deposit facility rate at 2% in the first half of 2026. - **Monetary Policy**: The ECB is seen as already at neutral, with the potential for more rate cuts in 2026. - **Fiscal Policy**: Increased defense and infrastructure spending is expected to support growth, but fiscal consolidation may slow. ### Japan - **Growth**: Expected to remain near potential at 0.5% in 2026. - **Inflation**: Expected to moderate to 1.8% by 2026. - **Monetary Policy**: The BOJ is expected to continue a slow normalization process, with the target rate likely to rise to 1.0%. - **Yen**: Expected to remain weak, with the government tolerating a moderately weak currency to support corporate profitability and wage growth. ### Asia-Pacific - **Fiscal and Monetary Policy**: A mild easing bias is expected in 2026, with room for further rate cuts constrained. - **De-dollarization**: Accelerating as countries seek to reduce exposure to US policy swings and financial coercion. - **Regional Currencies**: MYR and THB are expected to benefit from US rate cuts and narrowing rate differentials. --- ## Market Implications ### Currencies - **USD**: Entering 2026 as a "lame duck" currency, weakened by political instability and reduced rate advantage. - **Asian Currencies**: Expected to stabilize, with the CNY and EUR gaining more international traction. - **De-dollarization**: Seen as a strategic move rather than a challenge to USD dominance, with more trade transactions using local currencies and regional payment systems. ### Credit Markets - **Global Credit Spreads**: Near 20-year lows, but excess returns may be difficult to achieve in 2026. - **US Credit**: Tight spreads due to strong balance sheets, but risks of widening and a rise in default rates, particularly in high-yield and leveraged loans. - **Preferred Sectors**: Quality investment-grade (IG) credit, with financials and healthcare more resilient to trade distortions. - **Tech Credit**: Faces headwinds due to increased issuance and deteriorating credit metrics, though equity valuations remain strong. ### Equities - **Asean Equities**: Expected to benefit from local catalysts and increased FDI. - **China/HK Equities**: Projected to perform well, driven by domestic demand and AI-related investments. - **Emerging Markets**: Expected to see continued investment in AI, semiconductors, and green technologies. --- ## Key Charts and Data - **Global GDP Growth**: Slow but stable, with Asean-5 growth slightly lower than the US. - **US Trade Balance**: Projected to reach a deficit of USD1.4 trillion this year, with a significant portion coming from tariffs. - **China's Exports**: Stagnated in the US but surged globally, with only 11% of total exports now bound for the US. - **China and India's GDP Contribution**: Projected to account for over 30% of global GDP by 2030, highlighting their resurgence. - **Interest Rates**: The Fed is expected to cut rates further, while the ECB and BOJ may maintain or slowly increase rates. --- ## Summary of Outlook - **Global Resilience**: Despite trade tensions and US inward focus, global and Asean growth is expected to remain stable. - **US Outlook**: No recession expected, but the best growth may be behind as fiscal and monetary challenges persist. - **Eurozone Outlook**: Steady growth supported by domestic demand, with a cautious approach to monetary and fiscal policy. - **Japan Outlook**: Slow normalization, with a focus on supporting domestic growth and managing yen volatility. - **Asia Outlook**: Easing bias, de-dollarization, and increased FDI expected to drive growth and investment. - **Credit and Equities**: Credit markets may face modest widening, while equities, especially in China and Asean, are expected to perform well. --- ## Key Risks - **US Market**: Stock market correction, loss of Fed independence, and political instability. - **Global Markets**: Geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, and potential tightening in monetary policy. - **Credit Markets**: Rising default rates and credit spread widening in the US. - **Currency Markets**: Increased volatility and de-dollarization efforts could impact USD and other regional currencies. --- ## Conclusion The global economy is navigating a period of **divergent paths**, with the US moving inward and other regions pursuing more **autonomy and resilience**. Despite the challenges, the outlook remains **guardedly optimistic**, with Asia and Asean expected to lead in growth and investment, supported by **pragmatic policies** and **strategic shifts** in trade and finance.