20230723-国金证券-交通运输仓储行业研究_6月申通经营数据增长领跑_国内民航客运量再超2019年_14页_1mb

Transportation Industry Weekly Summary

Market Performance

For the week ending 7/21/2023, the transportation index rose 0%, outperforming the SHSE 300 index which fell 20% by 20 percentage points. The sector ranked 8th out of 29 companies. The bus sub-sector led with a +11% gain, while the airport sub-sector declined by -18%.

Key Sub-Indicators

• Bus & Airport: Significant divergence observed, with bus transport showing strong performance.
• Logistics: Xintong Shipping's subsidiary plans to build two 25,900-ton chemical tankers to enhance international shipping capabilities.
• Airlines: As of June 2023, domestic passenger volumes recovered partially to 108% of 2019 levels, with ASK growth (+10% for Hainan Air) but lower seat utilization (-3 to -8 percentage points vs 2019).
• Shipping: Export container freight rates fell sharply, with CCFI and SFI indices declining by 4% and 13% respectively from the previous week, indicative of weak demand.

Recommendations

Based on positive outlooks and targeted investments:

• Buy or recommend companies like Spring Airlines, Macao Gold International, and Xintong Shipping for exposure to recovery and growth opportunities.
• For logistics and shipping, focus on oil price sensitivity and supply-demand mismatches.

Risk Factors

• Ongoing COVID-19 demand recovery uncertainty affecting travel and freight sectors.
• High oil prices posing cost pressures on transportation and logistics.
• Currency fluctuations potentially impacting airline profits due to dollar exposure.
• Intensified price wars in the courier market, regulated by authorities, could strain profitability.