2018年-查塔姆研究所_American_Ballistic_Missile_Defence_Russian_Iskanders_and_a_New_Missile_Crisis_in_Europe_7页_126kb

REP Roundtable Summary: American Ballistic Missile Defence, Russian Iskanders and a New Missile Crisis in Europe

Core Content

This summary discusses the tensions between the United States and Russia over the deployment of American Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) systems in Poland and the Czech Republic, and Russia's response by threatening to deploy Iskander missiles in Kaliningrad Oblast. The analysis explores the strategic implications of these actions and their potential to escalate into a new missile crisis in Europe.

Main Points of Russian Opposition

1. No Immediate Threat from Iran:
   Russian officials, including Sergei Ryabkov, argue that there are no indications that Iran's nuclear program is directed toward military use. This undermines the rationale for deploying BMD systems in Europe.

2. Perceived Strategic Threat:
   Russia claims that the BMD system, even if limited to 10 interceptors and one radar, is part of a broader US strategic infrastructure aimed at deterring Russia's nuclear capabilities.

3. Rejection of U.S. Proposals for Cooperation:
   Russia refuses to consider revising the BMD deployment plan in exchange for cooperation on Iran, viewing it as a concession that would weaken its position.

4. Deployment of Iskander Missiles in Kaliningrad:
   Russia threatens to deploy Iskander missiles in Kaliningrad as a response to the BMD system, which could destabilize the region.

5. Demand for Rejection of BMD in Disarmament Agreements:
   Russia insists that any future strategic nuclear disarmament agreement must include the US's rejection of BMD systems.

Key Information on Iskander Missiles

• Iskander-E (SS-26):
  A ballistic missile with a range of approximately 280 km and a payload of 48 kg. Deployed mainly for export, it is not effective against BMD components.

• Iskander-M:
  A ballistic missile with a range of up to 500 km, possibly more. It could strike targets in Poland but not reach the Czech Republic effectively. The radar in the Czech Republic is considered a "soft target," and its destruction would neutralize the entire BMD system.

• Iskander-K (R-500):
  A cruise missile with a proven range of about 400 km, but potentially up to 2000 km as an upgraded version of the Soviet RK-55. Its deployment would threaten Central Europe, Scandinavia, the Baltic states, and Ukraine.

Strategic Implications

• The deployment of Iskander missiles in Kaliningrad would far exceed the military necessity for countering the BMD system, indicating broader strategic goals.
• Russia's actions aim to exert pressure on Europe, create divisions, and assert its influence over security decisions in the region.
• The potential for a new missile crisis is high, similar to the Cold War era, but with different dynamics and a more fragmented European response.
• The US faces a difficult decision: withdraw from the BMD project and risk undermining its security guarantees in Europe, or proceed and risk further Russian military escalation.

Security Perceptions and NATO

• Security perceptions in Europe are varied; some countries, like France, see threats from other sources, while others near Russia are more concerned about its military presence.
• The US needs to reassure European allies of its security commitments, particularly in Central and Eastern Europe, where doubts about NATO's willingness to defend allies persist.
• The Obama administration's "reset" strategy lacks coherence, and Russia's stance is seen as a test of its willingness to cooperate on global issues like Iran.

Conclusion

Russia's opposition to the BMD system is not primarily based on a real military threat but rather on a desire to assert influence, deter US military presence, and potentially provoke a new arms race in Europe. The deployment of Iskander missiles in Kaliningrad is a calculated move to increase regional tensions and challenge Western security guarantees. The situation highlights the complex interplay between strategic perceptions, military posturing, and diplomatic relations in contemporary international politics.