20171212-交银国际证券-粤丰环保-01381.HK-Two_WTE_project_wins_to_add_1.5ktpd_contract_capacity_in_total_5页_655kb
报告摘要
Canvest (1381 HK) Summary
Core Content
Canvest is a Hong Kong-listed waste-to-energy (WTE) provider with operations in Guangdong, Guangxi, and Guizhou. The company has been expanding its contract capacity through new WTE projects and is expected to meet its 26kt/day expansion target by the end of 2017. The latest developments include two new WTE project wins, which add 1.5kt/day of contract capacity. These projects are expected to further strengthen Canvest's position in the environmental sector.
Key Financial Highlights (Y/E 31 Dec)
| Metric | 2015 | 2016 | 2017E | 2018E | 2019E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (HK$ m) | 1,185 | 1,654 | 2,580 | 2,627 | 3,386 |
| YoY growth (%) | 49.2 | 39.6 | 56.0 | 1.8 | 28.9 |
| Net profit (HK$ m) | 272 | 400 | 590 | 708 | 831 |
| EPS (HK$) | 0.136 | 0.197 | 0.240 | 0.288 | 0.338 |
| EPS growth (%) | 42.4 | 44.6 | 20.3 | 19.9 | 13.2 |
| P/E (x) | 32.0 | 22.1 | 18.4 | 15.3 | 13.5 |
| BVPS (HK$) | 1.17 | 1.34 | 1.95 | 2.19 | 2.47 |
| P/B (x) | 3.8 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 |
| Dividend yield (%) | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.1 |
Recent Developments
-
New WTE Projects: Canvest has won two new WTE projects, adding a total of 1.5kt/day contract capacity.
- Xumen Project: Located in Zhanjiang City, designed capacity is 750tpd (Phase 1: 500tpd; Phase 2: 250tpd). Processing fee is ~RMB81/ton. Expected to start construction in 2019E and complete in 2020E.
- Jiangxi Project: Canvest's first investment in Jiangxi. Acquired for RMB173.5m, with processing fee expected to increase from RMB45/t to RMB70/t. Construction is expected to begin in 2018E and complete in 2019E.
-
Contract Capacity Target: Canvest aims to reach 26kt/day by the end of 2017. It has already secured the Dianbai project in November 2017, bringing its current contract capacity to 23kt/day. The completion of the Jianyang project would allow it to meet the target.
-
Investment Fund: Canvest has formed an RMB1.5bn investment fund with BOC & UTRUST and Guangdong Finance Investment. The fund is intended for future acquisitions, and the final decision on project selection is expected in 2018E.
Analyst Recommendations
- Rating: Maintain Buy for Canvest, with a target price of HK$5.19.
- Reasoning: Strong execution by the management team has led to the successful acquisition of new projects, increasing visibility on the project pipeline. This is seen as a re-rating catalyst.
Stock Performance
- 52-week High (HK$): 4.88
- 52-week Low (HK$): 3.42
- Market Cap (HK$ m): 11,024
- Issued Shares (m): 2,455
- Avg Daily Vol (m): 2.45
- 1-month Change (%): 3.0
- YTD Change (%): 17.2
- 50-day MA (HK$): 4.39
- 200-day MA (HK$): 4.33
- 14-day RSI: 50.9
Project Overview
| Project | Location | Status | Project Model | MSW Processing Capacity (tpd) | MSW Treatment Fee (RMB/t) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eco-Tech P1 | Dongguan, Guangdong | In operation | BOO | 1,800 | 110 |
| Eco-Tech P2 | Dongguan, Guangdong | In operation | BOO | 1,500 | 110 |
| Kewei | Dongguan, Guangdong | In operation | BOO | 1,800 | 110 |
| China Scivest P1 | Dongguan, Guangdong | In operation | BOT | 1,800 | 110 |
| China Scivest P2 | Dongguan, Guangdong | Expect operation start in 2H17 | BOT | 1,200 | 110 |
| Zhanjiang | Zhanjiang, Guangdong | In operation | BOT | 1,500 | 81.8 |
| Qingyuan P1 | Qingyuan, Guangdong | Under planning | BOT | 1,500 | 50 |
| Qingyuan P2 | Qingyuan, Guangdong | Under planning | BOT | 1,000 | 50 |
| Lufeng P1 | Lufeng, Guangdong | Under planning | BOT | 1,200 | 91.5 |
| Lufeng P2 | Lufeng, Guangdong | Under planning | BOT | 400 | 91.5 |
| Xinyi P1 | Maoming, Guangdong | Under planning | BOT | 500 | 79 |
| Xinyi P2 | Maoming, Guangdong | Under planning | BOT | 250 | 79 |
| Beiliu P1 | Beiliu, Guangxi | Expect operation start in 1H18 | BOT | 700 | 83 |
| Beiliu P2 | Beiliu, Guangxi | Under planning | BOT | 350 | 83 |
| Laibin P1 | Laibin, Guizhou | Expect operation start in 2H17 | BOT | 1,000 | 95 |
| Laibin P2 | Laibin, Guizhou | Under planning | BOT | 500 | 95 |
| Xingyi P1 | Xingyi, Guizhou | In operation | BOT | 700 | 80 |
| Xingyi P2 | Xingyi, Guizhou | Expect operation start in 2H17 | BOT | 500 | 80 |
| Dianbai P1 | Maoming, Guangdong | Under planning | BOT | 1,500 | 89.5 |
| Dianbai P2 | Maoming, Guangdong | Under planning | BOT | 750 | 89.5 |
| Xuwen | Zhanjiang, Guangdong | Under planning | BOT | 750 | 80.5 |
| Xinfeng | Jiangxi | Under planning | BOT | 800 | 45 |
| Zhongshan | Zhongshan, Guangdong | In operation | OM | 1,040 | 93 |
| Total | 23,040 |
Financial Ratios
| Metric | 2015 | 2016 | 2017E | 2018E | 2019E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross margin (%) | 37.1 | 35.6 | 32.7 | 37.3 | 34.9 |
| EBIT margin (%) | 32.2 | 33.1 | 30.7 | 36.1 | 33.1 |
| Net margin (%) | 23.0 | 24.2 | 22.9 | 26.9 | 24.5 |
| ROA (%) | 6.1 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 7.1 | 7.0 |
| ROE (%) | 11.7 | 14.7 | 12.3 | 13.1 | 13.6 |
| Net gearing (%) | 34.9 | 60.9 | 22.9 | 30.2 | 38.2 |
| Interest coverage (x) | 7.4 | 6.5 | 9.2 | 9.5 | 9.0 |
| Current ratio (x) | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.2 |
Analyst Certification & Disclosure
- The report authors have declared that the views expressed reflect their personal opinions and that no part of their compensation is related to the recommendations.
- The authors have not received insider information and have not traded in the covered stocks within 30 days prior to the report.
- BOCOM International has business relationships with several companies and may have conflicts of interest in its recommendations.
Contact Information
- Wallace Cheng: wallace.cheng@bocomgroup.com, (852) 3766 1810
- Research Team: Details provided in the table above.
试读结束，高清完整版pdf/doc/ppt,请点下载