2025-05-19-Jefferies-雪花（SNOW）_Snowflake潜力巨大-调查显示其增长并未消退_69页_1mb

Summary of SNOW Much Potential - Survey Analysis

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of Snowflake (SNOW) and Elastic (ESTC) based on proprietary surveys and partner feedback, highlighting their growth expectations, competitive positioning, and market dynamics.

Key Takeaways for Snowflake (SNOW)

F1Q Business Momentum

• 85% of partners either hit or exceeded their plans in F1Q, a marginal decrease from 90% in F4Q.
• 55% of partners reported an improvement in their SNOW pipelines, with 15% noting over 11% growth.
• Partners expect ~1pt of growth acceleration in CY25 compared to CY24, with 9.1% growth in 2024 and 10.3% expected in 2025.
• AI initiatives are expected to contribute ~6 ppts to growth in CY25, with data engineering also expected to drive growth.
• Macro uncertainty has had a ~2pt impact on F1Q pipelines and practice revenue, but 85% of partners expect limited impact, with 40% anticipating it to worsen incrementally in 2025.
• Iceberg Tables are gaining traction, with 45% of partners observing increased usage, indicating growing adoption.
• Win rates against Databricks are the lowest at ~35%, followed by Redshift (41%), MSFT (47%), and BigQuery (52%), suggesting a more challenging competitive landscape.

Competitive Positioning

• 75% of partners see SNOW maintaining or improving its market position.
• Databricks is viewed as the biggest threat, with 70% of partners citing it as the main competitor.
• AI/ML is ranked as the top driver for sales opportunities in the next 12 months.

Financial Outlook

• F1Q26 product revenue is expected to be $955–960M, representing 21–22% y/y growth.
• Full-year FY26 product revenue is projected at $4.28B (23.6% y/y growth), down from $3.46B (29.8% growth) in FY25.
• Net adds are expected to increase from $796M in FY25 to $818M in FY26.
• The company trades at 12x CY26E revenue, slightly below the 13x average for large caps, but there is potential for a re-rating if AI momentum continues.

Partner Demographics

• The survey included 20 partners, with 70% being large partners (clients with >5,000 employees).
• 55% of partners reported an increase in the number of certified Snowflake professionals.
• Partners are skewed towards enterprise and have limited exposure to AI in their practice.

Key Takeaways for Elastic (ESTC)

F1Q Business Momentum

• 3 ESTC partners were surveyed, with mixed to negative feedback due to sales cycle delays and deal pushouts in April/early May.
• Partners are in a wait-and-see mode due to recession fears, but full-year expectations have not been revised down.
• Pipeline demand remains stable, with no deterioration observed.

Competitive Positioning

• ESTC is primarily sold as part of bundled deals with other vendors like SNOW, DB, or DDOG.
• Federal projects have been significantly impacted, with new projects frozen.
• Search continues to grow y/y, but less than security and observability.
• Log management is the strongest area for ESTC, outperforming DDOG and DT in this segment.

Financial Outlook

• F1Q26 product revenue is expected to be ~$1.10B, with a ~4% beat over Street estimates.
• FY26 product revenue is projected at $4.28B, with 23.6% y/y growth.
• ESTC trades at 5x CY26E revenue, which is lower than the average for large caps, but offers room for re-rating if sales execution improves.

Partner Feedback

• One partner noted that Q2 performance was slightly below plan due to tariff talks, but Q3/Q4 are expected to be stronger.
• Another partner reported a ~30% drop in performance due to deal delays, but full-year targets remain unchanged.
• A third partner highlighted the impact on sales cycles, with 40–45% of deals being pushed out from April into May, and no lost demand observed.

Main Points

SNOW

• Positive momentum in F1Q with 85% of partners hitting or exceeding their plans.
• AI growth is expected to remain strong, with ~6 ppts of contribution in CY25.
• Macro uncertainty has limited impact, but concerns are growing.
• Iceberg Tables are gaining traction, with 45% of partners observing increased usage.
• Competitive challenges are increasing, particularly against Databricks.
• Product rev guidance for FY26 is $4.28B, with potential for higher net adds due to new features.

ESTC

• Mixed to negative feedback from partners due to sales cycle delays and recession fears.
• Full-year revenue targets remain unchanged despite Q2 underperformance.
• Search is growing, but less than security.
• Log management is a key strength, while SIEM is less resilient.
• Partner demographics are enterprise-focused, with limited AI exposure.
• F1Q26 is expected to be ~$1.10B in product revenue, with a ~4% beat over estimates.

Key Information

• SNOW is rated BUY with a $220 PT, reflecting positive AI growth and improved product rev guidance.
• ESTC is rated BUY with a $110 PT, indicating potential for re-rating if sales execution improves.
• The SNOW Partner Survey included 20 partners, while ESTC Partner Checks involved 3 partners.
• Macro headwinds are a concern for both companies, but limited impact has been observed so far.
• AI initiatives are a key growth driver for SNOW, with data engineering also contributing.
• ESTC is underperforming in some areas, particularly SIEM, but log management is strong.
• Sales execution is a critical factor for both companies, especially for SNOW as it navigates its GTM overhaul.

Summary of Changes

Company	Rating	Price Target	EPS Estimates (2024)	EPS Estimates (2025)	EPS Estimates (2026)	P/E (2024)	P/E (2025)	P/E (2026)
SNOW	BUY	$220.00	NM	NM	NM	NM	NM	NM
ESTC	BUY	$110.00	$1.20	$1.94	$2.03	77.2x	47.5x	45.6x

Note: NM = Not Maintained