2012年-世界发展银行全球_Financial_Analysis_for_the_Temporary_Social_Security_Regime_Regarding_Old_Age_Disability_and_Death_for_State_Workers_in_Timor-Leste_31页_1017kb

Summary of the World Bank Report on Timor-Leste's Civil Service Pension Program

Core Content

This report, prepared by the World Bank at the request of the Government of Timor-Leste, provides a financial and actuarial analysis of the new "Temporary Social Security Regime Regarding Old Age, Disability and Death for State Workers" pension program. It is intended to support the government in short-term budgeting and understanding the long-term implications of the program.

Main Points

• Legal Framework: The pension law was enacted in February 2012 and became effective on 1 June 2012. The program includes old age, total and permanent disability, and survivor benefits.
• Benefit Structure:
  • Old Age Pension: 75% of the average base salary for those who attain age 60 and have at least 60 months of service, increasing to 108 months by 2015.
  • Disability Pension: 75% of the average base salary for those who are totally and permanently disabled, with no minimum service requirement.
  • Survivor Benefits: Vary based on the status of the beneficiary:
    • Surviving spouse with no minor children: 65% of average salary or pension, payable for one year.
    • Surviving spouse of pension age: 65% of average salary or pension, payable for life.
    • Surviving spouse with minor children: 100% of average salary or pension, payable until the last child reaches 17.
    • Minor children of the deceased: 100% of average salary or pension, payable until each child turns 17, provided they are in school.
• Retirement Age: The minimum retirement age starts at 60 and increases to 64 by the end of the analysis period, reflecting improved life expectancy.
• Past Service Credit: Civil servants who worked before the program's start date (20 May 2002) are eligible for benefits based on their service history.
• Funding Mechanism: The government is considering shifting from budget financing to payroll contribution financing. If implemented, the contribution rate would need to increase over time to meet future costs.
• Contribution Rates:
  • In 2012, the required contribution rate is 2.9% of covered payroll.
  • By 2080, the rate is projected to rise to 25.4%.
  • To fully fund the program from 2012 to 2080, a contribution rate of 20.1% is required.
• Asset Accumulation: With a 20.1% contribution rate, the pension fund assets would grow to over 7% of GDP by 2030 and then be gradually liquidated. These assets need to be properly invested and managed.
• Cost Trends:
  • The cost of the program as a percent of GDP is expected to increase until 2040 and then decline.
  • The cost as a percent of covered payroll increases steadily over time, which may lead to increased budgetary pressure if the program is financed solely from the State budget.
• Demographic Factors:
  • The population is expected to grow rapidly, especially between 2012 and 2030.
  • Fertility rates will remain high until 2020, then decline slightly.
  • Mortality rates are expected to decline, leading to an increase in the elderly population.
  • The elderly dependency ratio initially declines and then increases, while the overall support ratio declines steadily due to the reduced number of children.
• Fiscal Implications:
  • The pension program will increase public transfers and government expenditures.
  • The government may need to reduce other expenditures to preserve the Petroleum Fund.
  • The program may not be suitable as a basis for a national pension system due to its non-standard features.
• Recommendations:
  • The government should quickly establish an administrative structure to manage the new pension system.
  • If a national pension system is to be established, it should not be based on the civil service pension program, as they have different objectives and structures.
  • The government should consider a funding strategy that includes periodic adjustments to contribution rates to manage the program's long-term financial sustainability.

Key Information

• Program Name: Temporary Social Security Regime Regarding Old Age, Disability and Death for State Workers
• Effective Date: 1 June 2012
• Benefit Calculation: Based on average base salary, not including overtime or allowances.
• Funding Options: Payroll contribution financing is recommended, with a contribution rate of 20.1% to fully fund the program.
• Asset Accumulation: Expected to reach over 7% of GDP by 2030 and then be liquidated.
• Dependency Ratio: Increases over time due to the growing number of beneficiaries and decreasing number of contributors.
• Population Growth: Expected to be significant, especially in the early years of the program.
• Fertility Rate: Remains near 5 children per mother until 2020, then declines slightly.
• Mortality Rate: Expected to decline throughout the analysis period, increasing the number of elderly beneficiaries.
• GDP Trends: Real GDP is expected to grow slowly, with oil revenues declining, leading to a decrease in total GDP growth.
• Actuarial Model: The PROST model was used to project the financial status of the pension program.
• Collaboration: The report was a joint effort between the Government of Timor-Leste and the World Bank, with input from various ministries and advisors.

Conclusion

The civil service pension program in Timor-Leste is expected to grow in cost over time, especially as the population increases and the dependency ratio rises. The government needs to establish an efficient administrative structure to manage the program and consider a sustainable funding strategy. The program's non-standard design features may not be suitable for a national pension system, and the government should evaluate whether to adjust the program's design or create a separate system.