2021-11-30-卡内基国际和平基金会-重新构想核军备控制_一种全面的方法（英）_161页_4mb

This report outlines nine proposals to address growing nuclear dangers and reduce the risks of arms racing and inadvertent escalation between the United States, Russia, and China. The authors argue that arms control can mitigate these threats by fostering cooperation and demonstrating shared commitment to security.

Key Proposals:

1. U.S.-Russian Data Exchange on Nonaccountable Missiles:

   • Propose a transparency regime for sea-launched cruise missiles (SLCMs) and nonnuclear sea-launched boost-glide missiles (SLBGMs). This would enhance understanding of missile deployments and reduce threat inflation.

2. U.S.-Russian Transparency Regime for Empty Warhead Storage Facilities:

   • Suggest reciprocal inspections of selected storage facilities to verify the absence of nuclear warheads. This would build confidence and reduce ambiguity surrounding nonstrategic nuclear weapons (NSNWs).

3. U.S.-Russian Confidence-Building Regime for European Missile Defenses:

   • Propose measures to reassure Russia about the defensive nature of U.S. Aegis Ashore missile defense installations, including flight tests to measure burnout speeds and verification of launch purposes.

4. U.S.-Chinese Fissile Material Management Regime:

   • Advocate for a joint cutoff of fissile material production for military purposes, with transparency measures. This could address U.S. concerns about China’s nuclear buildup and foster mutual trust.

5. Trilateral Launch Notification Agreement:

   • Call for notifications of space launches, missile tests, and missile defense tests to prevent misinterpretations during crises. This expands existing regimes to manage escalation risks.

6. Keep-Out Zones for High-Altitude Satellites:

   • Propose a trilateral agreement to establish minimum separation distances around nuclear C3I satellites, reducing the risk of inadvertent escalation from space threats.

7. Trilateral Prohibition on Space-Based Missile Defenses:

   • Suggest banning the testing and deployment of space-based missile defense weapons to stabilize strategic deterrence and prevent arms races.

8. Trilateral Treaty Limiting Missile Launchers and Bombers:

   • Propose limits on accountable launchers and bombers to curb conventional arms races, with a focus on reducing tensions and enhancing stability.

9. U.S.-Russian Warhead-Limitation Treaty:

   • Advocate for a comprehensive warhead limit, regardless of deployment status, accompanied by robust verification mechanisms. This addresses asymmetries and supports disarmament efforts.

Conclusion:

The authors emphasize that political barriers, such as strained U.S.-China and U.S.-Russia relations, pose significant challenges. However, they argue that arms control can reduce nuclear risks by preventing escalation, fostering cooperation, and demonstrating shared security interests. Incremental steps and joint research on verification could pave the way for longer-term treaties.