战略与国际研究中心-The-Global-Nuclear-Balance_120页_696kb

The Global Nuclear Balance: A Quantitative and Arms Control Analysis

Core Content

This document provides a comprehensive analysis of the global nuclear balance, focusing on the United States, Russia, and other nuclear-armed states, including China, North Korea, India, and Pakistan. It discusses the strategic nuclear forces, arms control treaties, and the implications of nuclear reduction efforts, as well as the broader context of deterrence and proliferation.

Main Points

Strategic Nuclear Forces Overview

• The U.S. and Russia are the two major nuclear powers, with significant numbers of nuclear weapons and delivery systems.
• The START I treaty was signed in 1991 and entered into force in 1994, aiming to reduce strategic nuclear arsenals.
• By 2001, the U.S. had ~8,820 deployed warheads and Russia had ~9,200 deployed warheads, with both nations continuing to reduce their forces in line with START I and II agreements.
• The U.S. had 550 ICBMs, 432 SLBMs, and ~200 bombers declared under START I, while Russia had 740 ICBMs, 280 SLBMs, and ~150 bombers.
• Ukraine, as a successor state, also had declared nuclear forces, though they were reduced significantly post-Soviet dissolution.

Nuclear Delivery Systems

• ICBMs: The U.S. had 550 Minuteman III and 50 Peacekeeper ICBMs, while Russia had 740 ICBMs, including the SS-18 (Mod 4/5) and SS-24 (RS-22).
• SLBMs: The U.S. had 18 SSBMs and 432 SLBMs, while Russia had 17 SSBNs with 280 SLBMs.
• Bombers: The U.S. had 208 active bombers (including B-52H and B-1B), while Russia had 74 heavy bombers (Tu-95 and Tu-160).

Arms Control Agreements

• START I reduced strategic nuclear warheads and delivery systems, with the U.S. and Russia aiming to reduce to ~3,456 SLBM warheads and ~5,456 ICBM warheads by 2001.
• START II aimed for further reductions, including the elimination of multiple-warhead ICBMs and a limit of ~1,750 SLBM warheads.
• START III was proposed to reduce deployed strategic warheads to 2,000-2,500 by 2007.
• The ABM Treaty was a key part of the strategic balance, but the U.S. announced its withdrawal in 2001.
• The INF Treaty (Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty) was also discussed, limiting nuclear weapons with ranges between 500-5,500 km.

Nuclear Proliferation and Other Weapons

• The document highlights the NPT (Non-Proliferation Treaty) and other agreements aimed at curbing nuclear proliferation.
• It also examines biological and chemical weapons, noting that Russia, despite ratifying conventions, remains a concern in terms of offensive capabilities and exports.
• The CTBT (Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty) is referenced as an important tool to limit nuclear testing and proliferation.

Nuclear Force Readiness and Management

• The U.S. maintains a high level of readiness for its strategic nuclear forces, with the ability to respond quickly to aggression, but only under proper authorization.
• The Nuclear Mission Management Plan (NMMP) outlines the integrated approach to maintaining the nuclear mission, including command and control, deterrence, and modernization efforts.
• Stockpile Stewardship is emphasized as critical for maintaining a safe and reliable nuclear arsenal without testing, with programs like the SSP (Stockpile Stewardship Program) playing a key role.

Modernization and Funding

• Funding for strategic nuclear forces has declined, affecting modernization and maintenance.
• Key modernization efforts include the D-5 SLBM life extension, B-2 bomber modifications, and Minuteman III upgrades.
• The U.S. plans to replace guidance and propulsion systems to sustain its nuclear capabilities and is exploring a replacement for the Minuteman III around 2020.

Theater Nuclear Forces

• Theater nuclear forces, including dual-capable aircraft, are an important part of NATO's deterrence strategy.
• These forces are maintained at levels below Cold War levels and are not targeted at any specific country.
• All tactical nuclear weapons were returned to Russia by 1992, and regional states in Eastern Europe have largely eliminated NBC capabilities.

Key Information

• START I and START II were major treaties aimed at reducing strategic nuclear forces, with START II not yet in force due to Russia's ratification delay.
• The U.S. and Russia had ~14,000 strategic nuclear warheads declared under START I, with both countries aiming for further reductions.
• Theater nuclear forces remain a strategic element for deterrence, particularly in NATO.
• Nuclear modernization is ongoing, but constrained by budgetary and technical challenges.
• Russia's nuclear posture remains strong despite economic and system aging issues, with a focus on deterring conventional attacks.
• Biological and chemical weapons are a concern, especially with Russia's continued involvement in these programs.

Summary Table

Conclusion

The document underscores the importance of arms control, deterrence, and the challenges of maintaining a credible and reliable nuclear deterrent in the post-Cold War era. It emphasizes the need for continued modernization, transparency, and international cooperation to ensure global stability and prevent nuclear proliferation.