2018年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Republic_of_the_Marshall_Islands_2018_Article_IV_Consultation_58页_1mb

Summary of IMF Country Report No. 18/270: Republic of the Marshall Islands

Core Content

The IMF conducted a 2018 Article IV consultation with the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI), assessing its economic outlook, risks, and policy priorities. The report outlines the country's economic performance, financial stability concerns, fiscal sustainability challenges, and climate change adaptation efforts.

Main Views and Key Information

Economic Outlook and Growth

• The RMI economy rebounded in FY2016 after a two-year recession, with real GDP growth accelerating to about 3.5% in FY2017, driven by increased fisheries activity and infrastructure spending.
• Growth is expected to remain robust in the short term, at about 2.5% in FY2018, and moderate to 1.5% over the medium term, underpinned by continued infrastructure investment.
• Consumer prices started to rise in mid-2017, with CPI inflation at 1.1% in 2017Q4, and are projected to gradually increase to around 2% over the medium term.

Fiscal Position

• The fiscal surplus is projected to narrow from 3% of GDP in FY2017 to 1.75% in FY2018, and turn into a deficit of 1.5% by FY2023.
• This is due to strong increases in government spending, particularly on goods and services, and relatively stable fishing license revenues.
• Government revenue from fishing licenses rose significantly from 6.25% of GDP in FY2014 to 18% of GDP in FY2017.

External Sector and Debt

• The current account balance has shown large swings, with a surplus of 15% of GDP in FY2015, narrowing to 7.5% in FY2016, and turning into a small deficit in FY2017.
• The current account is projected to widen to 3.5% of GDP over the medium term.
• External debt is expected to decrease over time, with the debt-to-GDP ratio projected to fall from 18% in FY2017 to 12.4% by FY2023, assuming continued grant-only status.
• The Compact Trust Fund is expected to grow significantly, reaching $615.3 million by FY2023.

Risks and Challenges

• The RMI faces significant risks, including the decline of U.S. Compact grants, AML/CFT vulnerabilities, and the planned issuance of a decentralized digital currency (SOV).
• The SOV could increase macroeconomic and financial integrity risks and raise the likelihood of losing the last U.S. dollar CBR.
• The RMI is also vulnerable to climate change, with repeated natural disasters and a low elevation making it susceptible to rising sea levels and extreme weather events.

Policy Recommendations

• Digital Currency: The authorities should reconsider the issuance of the SOV as legal tender due to significant economic, reputational, AML/CFT, and governance risks. The potential benefits from revenue gains are considered smaller than the associated costs.
• Fiscal Adjustment: A gradual fiscal adjustment of about 4 percentage points of GDP over the next five years is needed to ensure long-term fiscal sustainability, especially after the reduction of U.S. Compact grants.
• AML/CFT Framework: The RMI should strengthen its AML/CFT framework to comply with FATF standards and address risks from offshore and maritime registries.
• Infrastructure Spending: Continued increases in infrastructure spending are expected to support growth over the medium term.
• Climate Adaptation: Efforts should be made to improve the early disaster warning system and coastal protection, with explicit budgeting for climate adaptation costs.
• State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs): The planned SOE reforms should be implemented to reduce unjustified subsidies and improve efficiency.

Structural Reforms and SOE Reform

• The RMI is planning to implement SOE reforms to reduce subsidies to state-owned enterprises that are not justified by the provision of essential community services.
• These reforms are expected to support fiscal consolidation and free up resources for other purposes.

Financial Sector Supervision

• The RMI has made progress in addressing CBR risks, including amendments to the Banking Act and the initiation of a national risk assessment.
• The country's only domestic commercial bank, BOMI, is strengthening its AML/CFT framework and undergoing an independent audit.
• The authorities are also exploring alternative arrangements, such as establishing a clearing house in Hawaii to gain direct access to U.S. financial services.

Climate Change Adaptation

• The RMI is vulnerable to climate change due to its low elevation and dispersed population.
• Continued efforts are needed to adapt to climate change, including improving early disaster warning systems and coastal protection measures.

Conclusion

• The Executive Board welcomed the economic rebound but emphasized the need for caution in the issuance of the SOV and stressed the importance of fiscal consolidation and strengthening the AML/CFT framework.
• The RMI remains highly dependent on external aid, particularly U.S. grants, and is vulnerable to the potential loss of its CBR and the impact of climate change.
• The country is expected to maintain a broadly stable external sector position, supported by concessional financing and returns from the Compact Trust Fund, but with significant risks that require careful management.