中美竞争中的韩国外交政策创新（英）-英国皇家国际事务研究所-2021.7-35页_279kb

South Korean Foreign Policy Innovation Amid Sino-US Rivalry

Core Content

This research paper explores how South Korea navigates the complex and increasingly adversarial relationship between the United States and China, leveraging its status as a middle power to maintain strategic autonomy and balance its foreign policy. It emphasizes the importance of strategic partnerships and managed ambiguity in this context.

Main Viewpoints

• Strategic Ambiguity and Middle Power Diplomacy: South Korea has historically used strategic ambiguity to maintain flexibility in its foreign policy. This approach allows it to avoid being overly aligned with either the US or China while still pursuing economic and security interests.

• Avoiding Zero-Sum Choices: Despite the adversarial rhetoric from the Trump administration, South Korea has managed to avoid a zero-sum choice between the US and China. This is achieved through a combination of selective cooperation, enhanced alliance autonomy, and multilateral engagement.

• New Southern Policy: President Moon Jae-in's New Southern Policy aims to strengthen South Korea's relationships with Southeast Asian nations and other regional partners, thereby reducing its dependence on the US and China. This policy is part of a broader effort to diversify South Korea's foreign policy engagement and avoid being drawn into the Sino-US rivalry.

• Balancing US and Chinese Ties: South Korea seeks to sustain its alliance with the US while also maintaining economic ties with China. The country's approach is to engage with both powers on a range of issues, including missile defense, diplomatic dialogue with North Korea, and global governance.

Key Information

The Nature of Sino-US Tensions

• Economic and Technological Competition: The relationship between the US and China has transitioned from cooperation to competition, particularly in technology and innovation. Both countries are vying for global technological supremacy.

• Global Governance and Ideological Competition: China and the US are competing over the setting of international standards and norms. China's emphasis on 'discursive power' and its efforts to influence global governance have raised concerns in the US.

• Impact on South Korea: South Korea's position is complicated by its historical and cultural ties with China, as well as its security alliance with the US. This has made it difficult for Seoul to fully align with either side in the Sino-US rivalry.

US-China Rivalry and Policy Shifts

• Trump's China Policy: The Trump administration viewed China as an existential threat, leading to a more adversarial approach. This included economic sanctions, trade disputes, and a focus on security and human rights issues.

• Biden's Approach: Biden's administration is expected to adopt a more nuanced approach, combining confrontation with cooperation. The goal is to form a democratic alliance and reassert US leadership in a rules-based international order.

• Challenges to US-China Cooperation: Despite Biden's potential for a more cooperative stance, deep-seated political and ideological differences between the two countries are unlikely to be resolved quickly. The US remains concerned about China's global influence and its impact on democratic values.

China's Strategic Response

• Dual Circulation Strategy: China's 'dual circulation' strategy prioritizes domestic economic activity to reduce reliance on external markets. This approach is part of a broader effort to manage the risks posed by the deteriorating Sino-US relationship.

• Global Trade Agreements: China has joined the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), signaling its desire to strengthen economic ties with neighboring countries. It has also expressed interest in joining a reformed version of the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).

• Non-Confrontational Diplomacy: China's policy of 'struggle but do not break' (dou er bu po) reflects its commitment to managing the Sino-US relationship without escalating tensions. This includes maintaining communication channels and avoiding direct confrontation.

Conclusion

South Korea's foreign policy innovation is a key response to the evolving Sino-US rivalry. By adopting a strategy of selective cooperation and strategic ambiguity, Seoul has managed to preserve its alliance with the US while maintaining economic ties with China. This approach is critical for South Korea's long-term strategic interests, especially in light of the growing competition between the world's two largest economies. The paper highlights the importance of multilateralism and regional engagement in shaping South Korea's future role in the international system.