2011-10-22-Bain-Bain_predicts_solid_growth_for_the_holidays_18页_728kb

2011 Bain Holiday Forecast Summary

Key Findings

Economic Context

The U.S. economy remains uncertain, but holiday sales are projected to grow 3%, slightly below the 4.1% growth in 2010 but above the 2.1% 10-year average. This growth will push total annual GAFO sales to $1.171 trillion, surpassing prerecession levels from 2007.

Industry Trends

1. GAFO Growth:

   • Overall sales growth is 3% for 2011 holidays, 15% higher online than 2010.
   • Clothing (up 1.3% due to rising costs) is the only GAFO category experiencing inflation.

2. E-commerce & Mobile:

   • Online sales grew double-digit in 2011, expected to continue.
   • Mobile commerce will exceed $5 billion in 2011 purchases.

3. Profitability:

   • Despite 3% sales growth, profits may remain flat due to channel-specific variations.

Consumer Behavior

• Hourglass Effect: Luxury and value retailers thrive, while midtier retailers face pressure.
  • Affluent households ($100k+ income) show strong spending (e.g., Tiffany sales up 25%).
  • Lower-income households turn to dollar stores (consistently 8%+ sales growth).
  • Aspirational households ($50k–$100k) seek discounts amid declining home equity.

Niche Retail Insights

• MidTier Retailers: Some midtier players outperform due to aggressive inventory increases and targeted marketing.
• Digital Shift: Digital influence grows (nearly 50% of retail sales affected by online behavior), pushing retailers toward omnichannel strategies for seamless shopping.

Consumer Confidence

• Confidence hit a 14-year low in October 2011, yet spending resilience persists, though independent of confidence levels.

Summary Charts

• Chart 1: Holiday sales growth trends, 1981–2011.
• Chart 9: Segment growth disparities (luxury > midtier > value).

Outlook

Bain anticipates a rope of three quarters of sustained sales momentum, driven by logistics, retail hiring, and lower gas prices ($3.42/gallon vs. 2010 levels).