20220712-马银证券_香港_-每日港股简评_2页_159kb

Market Summary

Core Content

The Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant decline on concerns related to the resurgence of COVID-19 in China and the 7-day closure of most businesses in Macau. These factors led to a slump in the Macau gaming sector, with an average drop of 6–7%. The broader market also suffered, as the Hang Seng Index fell by 2.7% (-601 points) to 21,124 points, with a daily turnover of HKD119.4 billion. Technically, the index showed signs of weakness if it failed to trade above its 20-day Moving Average or the daily mid-level of the Bollinger Band at 21,500 points.

Sector Analysis

China Property

• Land Sales Decline: In the first half of 2022, land sales in 300 cities dropped by 54% YoY, with a high auction failure rate and low premium.
• SOEs Dominance: State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) captured approximately 73% of land in the first batch of land auctions YTD, compared to 60% in 2021.
• June Recovery: There were signs of recovery in June with a 35% MoM increase in sales volume.
• Drivers of Recovery:
  1. Resumption of demand after the June reopening.
  2. New project launches in June.
  3. Continued favorable policies, including lower mortgage rates and city-level relaxations.
• Regional Performance: Tier-1 and Tier-2 cities outperformed, while sentiment remained weak in lower-tier cities.

China Construction Machinery

• Excavator Sales: Excavator sales increased by 1% MoM but decreased by 10% YoY in June. Export sales surged by 58% YoY and 15% MoM, while domestic sales remained weak.
• Expected Recovery in 2H22E: Market expects a double-digit sales growth (10–20%) in the second half of 2022, driven by low base comparison and potential recovery in construction activity.
• Government Support: The Ministry of Finance plans to bring forward the FY23E quota to issue an additional RMB1.5 trillion of local government special bonds in 2H22E, which could act as a catalyst for the sector.
• Key Stocks: Zoomlion (1157 HK), Lonking (3339 HK).

Company Highlights

Tencent (700 HK)

• Regulatory Fines: Tencent was involved in 12 transactions on the list of 28 deals that violated anti-monopoly rules.
• Game Access Policy: Minor users can log in to its games for one hour every Friday to Sunday during the summer holiday from July to August.
• Parental Controls: The company will introduce 24/7 surveillance to prevent teenagers from playing games using their parents' accounts.

Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)

• Weak Sales: Its share price hit a 1-month low due to weak June sales volume of 101,000 units (+0.5% YoY), underperforming the PV market's 41% YoY growth.
• Brand Performance:
  • Havel: 51,000 units (-15% YoY).
  • WEY: 2,800 units (-39% YoY).
  • ORA: 11,500 units (+7% YoY).
  • Tank: ~14,000 units (+99% YoY).
• Order Backlog: GWM had an order backlog of ~200,000 units as of the end of June.
• Tank 500 Success: The newly launched Tank 500 recorded over 50,000 orders, indicating strong demand.

Sunny Optical (2382 HK)

• June Shipment Decline: Handset lens sets and camera modules shipments decreased by 15.7% and 21.4% YoY, respectively, due to weak smartphone demand.
• Vehicle Lens Growth: Vehicle lens sets shipments increased by 25.3% YoY, attributed to the low base effect.
• 2H22E Outlook: Market expects gradual improvement in shipment volume, though this will depend on the evolving situation of the China COVID-19 outbreak.
• Long-Term Prospects: After a challenging FY22E due to geopolitical risks and lockdowns, the market anticipates a return to solid earnings growth driven by demand recovery and increased demand for ADAS and EV components.

Disclaimers

• This document is for general circulation and informational purposes only.
• It is not investment research or a recommendation.
• Information is based on data from recognized statistical services, issuer reports, or other sources believed to be reliable.
• MIB Securities (HK) Ltd does not independently verify such information and makes no representation regarding its accuracy or completeness.
• No liability is accepted for any loss resulting from reliance on the contents.
• Statements are current opinions and may change without notice.
• MIB (HK) or its affiliates may participate in financing transactions or hold positions in mentioned securities.
• The information should not be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any securities.
• There may be discrepancies between fundamental, technical, and quantitative opinions.
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