2025-05-28-Jefferies-金山云（KC）_季节性因素和交付时间导致第一季度表现疲软；长期论点不变_11页_309kb

Kingsoft Cloud Equity Research Summary

Key Ratings & Target

• Equity Analyst: Thomas Chong, Zoey Zong
• Security: Kingsoft Cloud (KC: $12.90)
• Rating: BUY (Maintained)
• Price Target: US$16.00 (down from prior US$18.00), representing +24% upside on current price and +49% 12m target based on DCF.
• Recent Price (Target Prior Day): $12.90
• High/Low (52W): $22.26 - $2.02

Performance & Estimates - Q1 2025

• Q1 Revenue: RMB1.97bn (+10.9% YoY, behind consensus by 10% and estimate by 6%).
• Q1 Non-GAAP GPM: 16.6% (vs estimate of 18%).
• Q1 Non-GAAP EBITDA: RMB319m (met consensus estimate).
• AI Growth: AI gross billings +200% YoY, contributing 39% to public cloud revenue.
• Ecosystem Growth: Revenue from Xiaomi and Kingsoft Ecosystem +50% YoY (aim for RMB500m).

2025 Outlook & Guidance

• Full Year Revenue: 18% YoY growth to ~RMB9.2bn (behind consensus RMB9.6bn).
  • PC Revenue: 27% YoY growth to ~RMB6.4bn.
  • EC Revenue: Slight YoY growth (~4%?), bottom line RMB2.8bn (factoring IT outsourcing softness).
• Margins:
  • Q2 GPM expected ~14%.
  • Full Year GPM ~14.6%.
  • Full Year Adjusted EBITDA Margin ~20%.
• Q2 Expectations: 17% QoQ revenue growth to ~RMB2.3bn, better margins compared to Q1.

Key Takeaways & Management Views

1. Soft Q1 due to Seasonality: EC affected by CNY budgeting delay. PC requires long customer cycles.
2. AI Focus: AI demand strong (Xiaomi 7 billion param model using KC), driving growth. Focus on differentiating premium AI hardware/software (AI-all-in-one machine).
3. Margin Outlook: Q1 margins strained by seasonality and OpEx timing. Q2 expected to be better due to project progress. AI Capex/opex ongoing but partly offset by leasing.
4. Competition: No impact on legacy deals from competitors like DeepSeek. Premium customers rely on KC infrastructure.
5. Regulation: Management confirms work on ESG/data security. KC uses domestic chips (since 2023).
6. Cloud Shift Effects: Large models (~100+bn params) are driving demand for KC's computing power. Smaller point-of-sale models do not impact revenue. Significant deals like Xiaomi are recurring.

Long-Term Thesis

• Leading position in premium cloud services, backed by technology and ecosystem.
• Strong long-term growth in digitization, cloud migration post-COVID, and enterprise spending in PS/Gov/Medical.
• Increasing scale should lead to GPM improvement.
• Potential catalysers: Accelerated premium customer growth, faster-than-expected margin expansion.

Valuation & Risks

• Valuation: Based on DCF (US$16 PT).
• Key Risks:
  • Price wars intensifying competition.
  • Premium customers potentially relying on in-house cloud.
  • Stringent regulations.
  • Any change impacting the core thesis (e.g., slower cloud adoption, faster ESG regulation).
• Other Considerations: 12m price target adjustment reflects lower margin projections.

Financial Highlights (Selected)

• FY Revenue (2024A): RMB7785m (+10% YoY)
• Estimated 2025F Revenue: RMB9202m (+18% YoY)
• Estimated 2026E Revenue: RMB10354m (+13% YoY)
• Adjusted EBITDA Margin (2025E): ~20%

Analyst Certification

• Thomas Chong & Zoey Zong: certify views accurately reflect personal opinions, compensation not linked to recommendations in the report.

Important Notes

• This report includes numerous reports aggregated under various tickers (KC, Kingsoft Corp Ltd, Xiaomi Corp), some with separate Buy recommendations.
• Disclosures regarding analyst registration, conflicts of interest, research methodology, and rating definitions are standard and included in the original report pages 6-11, available upon request or via the provided website links.