2015年-世界发展银行全球_Kenya_Toward_a_National_Crop_and_Livestock_Insurance_Program___Background_Report_104页_7mb

报告摘要

Summary of "Toward a National Crop and Livestock Insurance Program" in Kenya

Core Content

This report outlines the development of a potential public-private partnership (PPP) for agricultural insurance in Kenya, focusing on both crop and livestock sectors. It aims to guide policy-making and technical development to support the creation of a sustainable agricultural insurance market, which is crucial for enhancing food security, economic growth, and shared prosperity.

Kenya's agriculture sector is vital to the economy, contributing approximately 30% of GDP and 50% of export revenue, while also employing over 61% of the population. However, the sector is highly vulnerable to climate risks, such as drought and flood, which are exacerbated by limited access to irrigation, inadequate data, and high distribution costs. These challenges have hindered the development of a robust agricultural insurance market, which is essential for resilient credit expansion and risk mitigation.

Main Points and Key Information

1. Rationale for PPP in Agricultural Insurance

The agricultural insurance market in Kenya has not scaled up, with only small-scale pilots and niche retail activity currently available.
Weather index insurance (WII) has been proposed as a solution, but it has not achieved significant scale due to lack of data, limited capacity for catastrophe risk, and high distribution costs.
Index-based livestock insurance (IBLI) has shown some success, with the UAP Syngenta program being the only one that has scaled up.
A strong PPP is essential for sustainable and scalable agricultural insurance, combining private innovation with public support.

2. Public and Private Sector Roles

Public sector functions include data collection, policy design, legal and regulatory support, and risk financing for catastrophic events.
Private sector functions involve product design, underwriting, risk assessment, distribution, and marketing of insurance products.
The GoK is central to collecting and managing agricultural insurance data, which is costly and non-rivalrous, making it more efficient to be managed by the public sector.
Data quality is a critical factor for sustainable insurance development, as it enables accurate risk assessment, product rating, and effective claims processing.

3. Challenges in Agricultural Insurance Development

Limited agricultural data: Reliable data is scarce, especially for subsistence farmers and pastoralists in ASAL regions (arid and semi-arid lands).
High costs: Distribution costs are high due to small and dispersed farms, and loss assessment is expensive for traditional indemnity insurance.
Lack of capacity: Insurers are unable to cover catastrophe risks effectively, and reinsurance is costly and not always accessible.
Poor understanding of insurance: Many farmers are unaware of insurance mechanisms, leading to low demand and inappropriate product purchases.

4. Proposals for Livestock Insurance in ASALs

A large-scale livestock insurance program is proposed for Mandera, Marsabit, Turkana, and Wajir counties.
The program would use NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) data to assess livestock mortality and trigger payouts.
Index-based livestock insurance (IBLI) is considered more cost-effective and efficient than traditional insurance, especially for smallholder farmers.

5. Fiscal Costing and Welfare Impacts

Fiscal costing is analyzed for different insurance scenarios, including macro-level asset protection, top-up, and nontargeted approaches.
Welfare impacts of area yield index insurance (AYII) for maize and wheat are explored, showing positive effects on income stability and poverty reduction.
Premium rates vary based on coverage levels, and cost-sharing between government, donors, and farmers is necessary for financial sustainability.

6. Support from International Organizations

The World Bank, GFDRR, and FSD Kenya are involved in designing and supporting the agricultural insurance program.
ILRI and USAID contribute to index-based livestock insurance (IBLI) and data collection.
Donor support is crucial for scaling up and improving the efficiency of agricultural insurance programs.

Conclusion

The report emphasizes the importance of a PPP in developing a resilient agricultural insurance market in Kenya. It highlights the need for reliable data, effective risk management frameworks, and policy support from the public sector. The vision is to create an integrated risk management system that includes private innovation and public oversight, ensuring financial protection for farmers and economic growth for the country. The recommendations include improving data collection, developing appropriate insurance products, and establishing an enabling legal and regulatory environment.

Key Figures and Tables

Figure 1: Integrated private risk management and insurance framework for Kenya's crop and livestock producers.
Figure 2: Public sector roles in supporting agricultural insurance development.
Figure 3: Government support for financial protection of pastoralists in HSNP counties.
Figure 4: Calculated pure loss cost rates for 12-month NDVI asset protection cover.
Figure 5: Short-term impacts of livestock insurance on income available for consumption.
Figure 6: Impacts of livestock insurance on herd accumulation.
Figure 7: Impacts of livestock insurance on poverty trap probability.
Figure 8: Types of agricultural insurance products.
Figure 9: Coverage level and insurance payouts in AYII.
Figure 10 and 11: Estimated AYII risk premium rates for maize and wheat.
Figure 12: Impacts of AYII on net income available for consumption.
Figure 13: Translating NDVI data into livestock mortality estimates and IBLI payouts.
Figure 14: IBLI seasonal sales periods, contract cover periods, and payout dates.
Table 1: Agricultural insurance data collected by the GoK.
Table 2: Comparison of Uruguayan pasture NDVI cover and proposed Kenyan NDVI cover.
Table 3: Proposed livestock safety net and insurance program for four HSNP counties.
Table 4 and 12: Fiscal costing projections for macro-level asset protection coverage.
Table 5 and 13: Fiscal costing projections for top-up and nontargeted pastoralist options.
Table 6: Variation of premium rates according to coverage levels.
Table 9: Fiscal cost per household for different policy goals in insurance scenarios.
Table 10: Illustrative fiscal costing for agricultural insurance programs in 2016 and 2019.
Table 14: Summary statistics of pastoral households in four HSNP counties.
Table 15 and 16: Yield, area, and premium rate data for maize and wheat.
Table 17: Estimated cost of additional data collection activities for AYII.
Table 18: Summary statistics of maize and wheat growing households.
Table 19: Summary of key impact indicators by contract variations.

Institutional Support and Partnerships

The GoK collaborates with the World Bank and donor agencies such as USAID and UK DFID.
The International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) and Financial Sector Deepening (FSD) are key partners in data collection, product development, and risk management.
Legal and regulatory support is essential, with the Insurance Act needing to be updated to support index insurance and microinsurance.

Final Recommendations

Develop a national agricultural insurance program through a PPP framework.
Improve data collection and analysis to support risk assessment and product design.
Promote index-based insurance as a cost-effective and scalable solution for smallholder farmers.
Establish an enabling legal and regulatory environment to support innovation and sustainable growth in the agricultural insurance market.