20260324-招银国际-绿城服务-02869.HK-Continue_to_bear_fruit_from_efficiency_gains_6页_720kb

报告摘要

Greentown Service (2869 HK) Summary

Core Content

Greentown Service (2869 HK) reported a FY25 net profit (NP) of RMB 880mn, representing a 12.1% YoY increase, slightly below the Bloomberg consensus by 6.3% but in line with the analyst forecast. The core operating profit (OP) surged 24.6% YoY to RMB 1,878mn, significantly outperforming the 15% guidance from management. This growth was driven by continued efficiency improvement measures, including refined management, cross-project collaboration, technology empowerment, and a focus on high-quality businesses. The company's headcount increased by 7%, yet net profit per capita rose by 5%, indicating strong operational performance.

Key Financial Highlights

Revenue: FY25 reached RMB 19,164mn, with a 7.1% YoY growth.
Gross margin: Improved by 0.5ppts YoY to 17.3%.
SG&A ratio: Decreased by 0.9ppts YoY to 7.5%.
Core OP margin: Increased by 1.4ppts YoY to 9.8%.
Net margin: Rose by 0.2ppts YoY to 4.6%.
NP margin: Expanded by 0.2ppts YoY to 4.6%.
Core OP growth: Surged 24.6% YoY, beating management's guidance.
Net profit: Increased by 12.1% YoY, with a 0.7% difference from CMBI estimates.

FY26 Guidance and Market Reaction

The company guided for a core OP growth of >15% in FY26, with further gross margin expansion of 0.5ppts and admin fee ratio reduction of 0.5ppts. These expectations have led to a 6.5% share price increase following the analyst briefing, while the Hang Seng Index (HSI) declined by 3%.

Dividend Policy

Greentown Services maintains a high dividend payout ratio, with FY25 at 76%, contributing to a dividend yield of 5.7%. The company is expected to continue this policy, which supports its BUY rating and target price of HK$6.55 (a 1% reduction from the previous target price of HK$6.61).

Challenges and Concerns

New home vacancy rates: The company's new home PM fee collection remains a concern due to weak property sales, leading to a mild decline in collection rates.
Related party GFA: The share of net new GFA under management contributed by related parties rose from 19% in FY24 to 27% in FY25, potentially impacting independence and growth prospects.
Vacancy rate impact: The rising vacancy rate is expected to continue over the next 1-2 years, which could dampen the sector's medium-term growth and collection rates.

Valuation and Industry Comparison

P/E ratio: Decreased from 15.1x in FY24 to 11.4x in FY26, reflecting market optimism.
P/B ratio: Declined from 1.7x in FY24 to 1.5x in FY26.
Dividend yield: Increased from 5.7% in FY25 to 8.3% in FY28.
ROE: Rose from 10.3% in FY24 to 14.6% in FY28, showing improved profitability.

Analyst Rating and Market Position

Analyst rating: BUY (Maintain), with a target price of HK$6.55.
Market capitalization: HK$13,770mn, with a 3-month average trading volume of HK$14.0mn.
52-week high/low: HK$5.23/HK$3.94.
Shareholding structure: Orchid Garden Investment (31.9%) and Lilac International Investment (13.3%) are major shareholders.

Financial Summary (Selected Metrics)

Metric	FY24A	FY25A	FY26E	FY27E	FY28E
Revenue (RMB mn)	17,893	19,164	20,733	22,309	23,830
Gross profit (RMB mn)	3,011	3,322	3,645	3,960	4,272
Net profit (RMB mn)	785	880	1,030	1,187	1,308
EPS (Reported) (RMB)	0.25	0.28	0.33	0.38	0.42
Net margin (%)	4.4%	4.6%	5.0%	5.3%	5.5%
P/E (x)	15.1	13.4	11.4	9.9	9.0
P/B (x)	1.7	1.6	1.5	1.5	1.4
Dividend Yield (%)	5.7	6.6	7.6	8.3	8.3

Valuation Comps

Company	P/E (2026E)	Net Profit Growth (%)	Payout Ratio	Dividend Yield (%)	PEG
CR MixC	19.3x	10.2	134%	5.3%	1.2
Onewo	20.2x	21.2	250%	10.1%	1.2
Country Garden Services	9.0x	(18.5)	55%	5.7%	0.4
Poly Services	9.0x	6.3	50%	4.8%	1.4
COPH	6.4x	9.6	36%	4.5%	0.6
CMBIGM	11.4x	17.0	75%	4.9%	0.7

Financial Health and Liquidity

Current ratio: Maintained at 1.4-1.5x, indicating stable liquidity.
Receivable turnover days: Stabilized at 112.2 days.
Inventory turnover days: Decreased to 12.1 days.
Payable turnover days: Increased to 125.1 days.

Summary of Outlook

Efficiency improvements: Continued and effective, driving profitability.
Dividend policy: Maintained high payout, supporting investor confidence.
Vacancy rates: Remain a key risk factor, likely to affect future collection rates.
Market position: Strong performance relative to peers, but challenges persist.

Conclusion

Greentown Services has shown strong efficiency gains and profitability improvements in FY25, with a core OP growth of 24.6% and net profit growth of 12.1%. Despite exceeding expectations in core OP, the company faces challenges from rising new home vacancy rates and related party GFA contributions. The BUY rating and target price of HK$6.55 reflect confidence in its efficiency measures and dividend policy, but ongoing weak property sales may impact future performance. The company's financial health remains stable, with improved margins and dividend yield.