> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # Greentown Service (2869 HK) Summary ## Core Content Greentown Service (2869 HK) reported a **FY25 net profit (NP) of RMB 880mn**, representing a **12.1% YoY increase**, slightly below the Bloomberg consensus by **6.3%** but in line with the analyst forecast. The **core operating profit (OP)** surged **24.6% YoY to RMB 1,878mn**, significantly outperforming the **15% guidance** from management. This growth was driven by continued efficiency improvement measures, including **refined management, cross-project collaboration, technology empowerment**, and a **focus on high-quality businesses**. The company's **headcount increased by 7%**, yet **net profit per capita rose by 5%**, indicating strong operational performance. ## Key Financial Highlights - **Revenue**: FY25 reached RMB 19,164mn, with a **7.1% YoY growth**. - **Gross margin**: Improved by **0.5ppts YoY to 17.3%**. - **SG&A ratio**: Decreased by **0.9ppts YoY to 7.5%**. - **Core OP margin**: Increased by **1.4ppts YoY to 9.8%**. - **Net margin**: Rose by **0.2ppts YoY to 4.6%**. - **NP margin**: Expanded by **0.2ppts YoY to 4.6%**. - **Core OP growth**: Surged **24.6% YoY**, beating management's guidance. - **Net profit**: Increased by **12.1% YoY**, with a **0.7% difference from CMBI estimates**. ## FY26 Guidance and Market Reaction The company guided for a **core OP growth of >15% in FY26**, with further **gross margin expansion of 0.5ppts** and **admin fee ratio reduction of 0.5ppts**. These expectations have led to a **6.5% share price increase** following the analyst briefing, while the **Hang Seng Index (HSI) declined by 3%**. ## Dividend Policy Greentown Services maintains a **high dividend payout ratio**, with **FY25 at 76%**, contributing to a **dividend yield of 5.7%**. The company is expected to continue this policy, which supports its **BUY rating** and **target price of HK$6.55** (a **1% reduction** from the previous target price of HK$6.61). ## Challenges and Concerns - **New home vacancy rates**: The company's **new home PM fee collection** remains a concern due to **weak property sales**, leading to a **mild decline in collection rates**. - **Related party GFA**: The share of **net new GFA under management contributed by related parties rose from 19% in FY24 to 27% in FY25**, potentially impacting independence and growth prospects. - **Vacancy rate impact**: The **rising vacancy rate** is expected to **continue over the next 1-2 years**, which could **dampen the sector's medium-term growth** and **collection rates**. ## Valuation and Industry Comparison - **P/E ratio**: Decreased from **15.1x in FY24 to 11.4x in FY26**, reflecting market optimism. - **P/B ratio**: Declined from **1.7x in FY24 to 1.5x in FY26**. - **Dividend yield**: Increased from **5.7% in FY25 to 8.3% in FY28**. - **ROE**: Rose from **10.3% in FY24 to 14.6% in FY28**, showing improved profitability. ## Analyst Rating and Market Position - **Analyst rating**: **BUY** (Maintain), with a **target price of HK$6.55**. - **Market capitalization**: **HK$13,770mn**, with a **3-month average trading volume of HK$14.0mn**. - **52-week high/low**: **HK$5.23/HK$3.94**. - **Shareholding structure**: **Orchid Garden Investment (31.9%)** and **Lilac International Investment (13.3%)** are major shareholders. ## Financial Summary (Selected Metrics) | Metric | FY24A | FY25A | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | |--------|------|------|------|------|------| | Revenue (RMB mn) | 17,893 | 19,164 | 20,733 | 22,309 | 23,830 | | Gross profit (RMB mn) | 3,011 | 3,322 | 3,645 | 3,960 | 4,272 | | Net profit (RMB mn) | 785 | 880 | 1,030 | 1,187 | 1,308 | | EPS (Reported) (RMB) | 0.25 | 0.28 | 0.33 | 0.38 | 0.42 | | Net margin (%) | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.5% | | P/E (x) | 15.1 | 13.4 | 11.4 | 9.9 | 9.0 | | P/B (x) | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | | Dividend Yield (%) | 5.7 | 6.6 | 7.6 | 8.3 | 8.3 | ## Valuation Comps | Company | P/E (2026E) | Net Profit Growth (%) | Payout Ratio | Dividend Yield (%) | PEG | |---------|------------|------------------------|--------------|--------------------|-----| | CR MixC | 19.3x | 10.2 | 134% | 5.3% | 1.2 | | Onewo | 20.2x | 21.2 | 250% | 10.1% | 1.2 | | Country Garden Services | 9.0x | (18.5) | 55% | 5.7% | 0.4 | | Poly Services | 9.0x | 6.3 | 50% | 4.8% | 1.4 | | COPH | 6.4x | 9.6 | 36% | 4.5% | 0.6 | | CMBIGM | 11.4x | 17.0 | 75% | 4.9% | 0.7 | ## Financial Health and Liquidity - **Current ratio**: Maintained at **1.4-1.5x**, indicating stable liquidity. - **Receivable turnover days**: Stabilized at **112.2 days**. - **Inventory turnover days**: Decreased to **12.1 days**. - **Payable turnover days**: Increased to **125.1 days**. ## Summary of Outlook - **Efficiency improvements**: Continued and effective, driving profitability. - **Dividend policy**: Maintained high payout, supporting investor confidence. - **Vacancy rates**: Remain a key risk factor, likely to affect future collection rates. - **Market position**: Strong performance relative to peers, but challenges persist. ## Conclusion Greentown Services has shown strong efficiency gains and profitability improvements in FY25, with a **core OP growth of 24.6%** and **net profit growth of 12.1%**. Despite exceeding expectations in core OP, the company faces challenges from **rising new home vacancy rates** and **related party GFA contributions**. The **BUY rating** and **target price of HK$6.55** reflect confidence in its **efficiency measures** and **dividend policy**, but **ongoing weak property sales** may **impact future performance**. The company's **financial health remains stable**, with **improved margins** and **dividend yield**.