2009年-世界发展银行全球_Global_Development_Finance_2009___Charting_a_Global_Recovery_Volume_2_Summary_and_Country_Tables_320页_2mb

Global Development Finance 2009: Summary and Country Tables

Core Content

Global Development Finance (GDF) 2009 is a comprehensive report that provides statistical data on the external debt of 128 developing countries. It is part of a two-volume annual publication, with Volume I offering analysis and commentary, while Volume II contains detailed tables and data. The report is published by the World Bank and serves as a critical reference for understanding the financial health and obligations of developing nations.

Main Views and Key Information

1. Purpose and Scope

• The GDF 2009 report is designed to provide a detailed overview of external debt for countries that report public and publicly guaranteed external debt under the Debtor Reporting System (DRS).
• It includes summary tables, country-specific tables, and regional/income group aggregates.
• The report also features graphical presentations and database access for more detailed analysis.

2. Data Sources and Methodology

• Data is collected from debtors and creditors, including national central banks, ministries of finance, and multilateral organizations.
• The World Bank is the sole repository for loan-by-loan external debt data for developing countries.
• Data is converted into U.S. dollars using IMF par values, central rates, or current market rates, depending on the context.

3. Debt Classification

• Public and publicly guaranteed external debt is reported on a loan-by-loan basis, except for some multilateral agencies where data is sourced from creditors' records.
• Private nonguaranteed external debt is also included, with estimates derived from available creditor data when not reported directly by debtors.
• Short-term external debt (maturity of one year or less) is more challenging to monitor due to limited transparency and reporting.

4. Debt Composition and Ratios

• External debt stocks are categorized into:
  • Public and publicly guaranteed long-term debt
  • Private nonguaranteed long-term debt
  • Use of IMF credit
  • Short-term external debt
• Key debt ratios are summarized, including:
  • Debt-to-GDP ratio
  • Debt service-to-exports ratio
  • Debt service-to-revenue ratio
• These ratios are not sufficient on their own to draw economic conclusions; they should be used in conjunction with careful economic analysis.

5. Data Collection and Estimation

• Debt data is collected annually and includes disbursements, principal repayments, interest payments, and projected payments.
• Short-term debt is estimated using BIS quarterly data and residual calculations based on the difference between net long-term borrowing and net long-term external debt.
• Interest in arrears on long-term debt and IMF credit is added to short-term external debt.

6. Debt Restructuring

• The DRS captures the effects of restructurings on both debt stocks and flows.
• Rescheduled payments are considered imputed flows, not actual cash flows, and are recorded separately in the WBXD system.
• Restructuring can lead to changes in creditor and debtor status, such as shifting from private to official creditors.

7. Projection Methodology

• The WBXD system is used to project future disbursements and debt service payments.
• Disbursement projections are based on:
  • Specific schedules provided by debtor countries
  • Standard schedules derived from historical disbursement patterns
• Debt service projections use repayment terms and interest rates (including LIBOR for variable rate debt), assuming the end-December 2007 rate remains effective.

8. Data Accuracy and Limitations

• The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data.
• Macroeconomic data may have significant margins of error, especially for recent years.
• Short-term debt data is limited and not widely available, requiring creditor-based estimates in some cases.

Key Tables and Sections

• Summary Table 1: Key debt ratios for individual countries.
• Summary Table 2: Composition of external debt stocks for countries and regional/income groups.
• Country Tables: Detailed data for 128 reporting countries, organized into 10 sections.
• Regional and Income Group Tables: Aggregated data with graphical presentations.
• External Debt Stocks and Flows: Includes public, private, and IMF credit data.
• Sources and Symbols: Provides definitions and abbreviations used in the report.
• Metadata: Explains the definitions, sources, and methodology behind the data.

Conclusion

The GDF 2009 report offers a detailed statistical overview of the external debt situation of developing countries, with a focus on data accuracy, classification, and economic implications. It is a key reference for policymakers, analysts, and researchers interested in global financial flows and debt sustainability. The report emphasizes the importance of combining debt ratios with economic analysis and provides access to a database for more in-depth study.