战略与国际研究中心-South-Asia-Monitor_-Sri-Lanka_-Politicial-Consolidation-without-Reconciliation__4页_131kb

South Asia Monitor Summary - Number 142, June 15, 2010

Core Content

This report from the South Asia Monitor analyzes the political and social landscape of Sri Lanka one year after the end of the civil war, focusing on the consolidation of power by President Mahinda Rajapaksa, the state of reconciliation, and the country's recalibration of international relations.

Main Points

Political Consolidation

• Presidential Election 2010: President Mahinda Rajapaksa was re-elected with 58% of the vote, defeating General Sarath Fonseka, the architect of the military victory.
• Early Parliamentary Elections: Rajapaksa called for early parliamentary elections, which his party, the United People's Freedom Alliance (UPFA), won with a near two-thirds majority (144 out of 225 seats).
• Election Dynamics: The election was peaceful, with 80,000 police and soldiers deployed. However, voter turnout was the lowest in two decades, at around 50-55%.
• Tamil Participation: Tamil districts, particularly Jaffna and Vanni, saw very low participation. The Tamil National Alliance (TNA), previously aligned with the LTTE, won only 13 seats, down from 22 in 2004.
• Opposition Decline: The parliamentary opposition, led by the United National Party (UNP) and the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), is both weakened and fragmented. The UNP's performance was a record low, and the JVP, though still a significant force, saw a drop in representation.
• Concentration of Power: Rajapaksa's government has consolidated power, with him holding multiple ministerial posts, including defense, finance, and ports. His brothers also hold key positions, further centralizing authority.

Reconciliation Efforts

• Economic Focus: The government views economic development as a key tool for reconciliation, especially in war-affected regions. Tourism and investment have shown signs of recovery.
• Lack of Political Reconciliation: Despite economic efforts, there is little political dimension to reconciliation. The idea of devolving power to provincial councils through constitutional means has received limited attention.
• Reconciliation Commission: The government established the "Lessons Learnt and Reconciliation Commission," which is government-appointed and operates in secret, raising concerns about its effectiveness and impartiality.

International Relations

• Strained Relations with Donors: The end of the war led to a deterioration in relations with traditional aid donors in Europe, Japan, and North America, who continued to criticize the government.
• Shift Toward Developing Nations: Sri Lanka has sought to strengthen ties with China, Iran, India, and the G-15 group of developing countries. China offered aid, and India pledged economic support, including a line of credit and housing for displaced persons.
• U.S. Engagement: Foreign Minister G. L. Peiris met with U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in Washington, D.C., to improve bilateral relations. However, tensions remain over allegations of war crimes and the need for an international investigation.

Key Information

• Voter Turnout: Declined to 50-55%, the lowest in two decades.
• Tamil Displacement: Approximately 47,000 displaced civilians have been resettled, down from 300,000 in May 2009.
• Emergency Laws: Some emergency laws were relaxed, but indefinite detention without charge remains in place.
• Legal Actions Against Opposition: General Fonseka was arrested and charged with political misconduct, while Tamil journalist J. S. Tissanayagam was convicted and later pardoned, though not yet released due to ongoing legal appeals.
• Future Challenges: The government needs to address the marginalization of the Tamil community, which was a root cause of the civil war, and improve its relations with the West through transparency and respect for human rights.

Conclusion

Sri Lanka has made progress in restoring normalcy and economic growth post-war, but political reconciliation remains elusive. The consolidation of power by Rajapaksa and his allies raises concerns about the inclusiveness of the political process and the potential for continued tensions. The government's approach to international relations has shifted, but its domestic policies may not be sufficient to heal the divisions that led to the civil war.