20260430-招银国际-迈瑞医疗-300760.SZ-1Q26_in_line_overseas_and_emerging_businesses_driving_growth_5页_1mb

Mindray (300760 CH) Summary

Core Content

Mindray, a leading Chinese healthcare technology company, reported its first-quarter 2026 (1Q26) results, showing revenue of RMB8.35bn (+1.4% YoY) and attributable net profit of RMB2.3bn (-11.3% YoY). The results were largely in line with expectations. The company's overseas and emerging markets continued to drive growth, while the domestic business faced near-term challenges due to channel destocking.

Main Points

• Overseas Business Growth:

  • Overseas revenue increased by $15.7%$ YoY to RMB4.45bn, representing $53%$ of total revenue in 1Q26.
  • Europe showed strong growth, with revenue increasing over $25%$ YoY, driven by rapid penetration into high-end accounts in key markets like the UK, France, Germany, and Italy.
  • Emerging markets recovered, up $15%$ YoY, with India and Mexico each growing more than $30%$ YoY.
  • IVD, PMLS, and medical imaging segments saw growth of $>20%$, $15%$, and $>10%$ YoY, respectively.

• Domestic Business Performance:

  • Domestic revenue declined $11.1%$ YoY to RMB3.9bn in 1Q26, primarily due to channel destocking in PMLS and MIS.
  • Domestic CLIA revenue increased by $\sim 10%$ YoY, despite VBP-related price pressure, due to deeper penetration into large hospital accounts.
  • Mindray's share in core IVD categories (CLIA, chemistry, coagulation) increased from $10%$ in 1H25 to $13%$ in 1Q26.
  • The MT8000 TLA system completed over 80 installations, supporting reagent pull-through.
  • Domestic emerging businesses increased over $18%$ YoY and accounted for $23%$ of domestic revenue.

• Emerging Businesses:

  • Revenue from emerging businesses reached RMB1.4bn in 1Q26, up $18.2%$ YoY.
  • IVD and emerging businesses together accounted for nearly $40%$ of overseas revenue and over $70%$ of domestic revenue, indicating a shift toward recurring, consumables-based revenue.

• Earnings Forecast:

  • The analyst maintains FY26-28E revenue forecasts and derives a target price of RMB204.54 using a 9-year DCF model (WACC: $9.1%$, terminal growth: $3.0%$).
  • The company's FY26E revenue is expected to be RMB35.7bn, with YoY growth of $7.3%$.
  • Net profit is forecasted to be RMB8.0bn in FY26E, with a YoY growth of $-1.4%$.
  • EPS is expected to reach RMB6.62 in FY26E, with a P/E ratio of 24.3.

• Valuation and Investment Outlook:

  • The current price is RMB161.11, with a potential upside of 27.0% to the target price.
  • The analyst maintains a "BUY" rating for the stock, suggesting a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months.

Key Information

• Market Cap: RMB195,336.4 million
• Average 3-Month Turnover: RMB1,221.1 million
• 52-Week High/Low: RMB248.24/RMB156.30
• Total Issued Shares: 1,212.4 million
• DCF per Share: RMB204.54
• Net Debt to Equity Ratio: $-20,933$ million
• Minority Interest: RMB5,823 million
• Equity Value: RMB247,990 million
• Net Profit Margins: RMB22.48% (FY26E), RMB23.63% (FY27E), RMB24.00% (FY28E)
• Operating Margins: RMB29.76% (FY26E), RMB30.36% (FY27E), RMB30.80% (FY28E)
• Gross Profit Margins: RMB59.05% (FY26E), RMB58.95% (FY27E), RMB58.93% (FY28E)
• ROE: 20.1% (FY26E), 21.1% (FY27E), 21.5% (FY28E)

Financial Highlights

• Revenue Growth:

  • FY24A: 5.1%
  • FY25A: $-9.4%$
  • FY26E: 7.3%
  • FY27E: 10.2%
  • FY28E: 10.5%

• Net Profit Growth:

  • FY24A: 0.7%
  • FY25A: $-30.3%$
  • FY26E: $-1.4%$
  • FY27E: 15.9%
  • FY28E: 12.2%

• EPS Growth:

  • FY24A: RMB6.71
  • FY25A: RMB6.62
  • FY26E: RMB7.67
  • FY27E: RMB8.61

• P/E Ratio:

  • FY24A: 16.7
  • FY25A: 24.0
  • FY26E: 24.3
  • FY27E: 21.0
  • FY28E: 18.7

Analyst Certification and Ratings

• The analyst certifies that the views expressed in the report reflect personal views and are not influenced by compensation.
• The analyst confirms no trading in the stock covered in the report within 30 days prior to the report date and will not trade within 3 business days after.
• The company is rated "BUY" by CMBIGM, indicating potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months.

Risk and Disclosure

• The report contains risks and is not suitable for all investors.
• CMBIGM does not provide individually tailored investment advice.
• Past performance does not guarantee future results.
• The report is for the use of intended recipients only and may not be reproduced or distributed without consent.

Important Disclosures

• The report is prepared for the purpose of supplying information to clients and is not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security.
• CMBIGM is not liable for any loss or damage incurred from reliance on the report.
• The information is based on publicly available data and is subject to change.
• CMBIGM may issue other reports with different conclusions based on different assumptions and analytical methods.
• The report may contain conflicts of interest due to CMBIGM's market-making activities.

Distribution Restrictions

• The report is distributed to persons falling within Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 in the UK.
• In the US, the report is distributed solely to "major US institutional investors".
• In Singapore, the report is distributed by CMBI (Singapore) Pte. Limited (CMBISG), an exempt financial adviser, and is subject to Singapore's Securities and Futures Act.