20260205-招银国际-Obesity_pipeline_de-risking_drives_re-rating_potential_5页_788kb

Pfizer Inc. (PFE US) Summary

Core Content

Pfizer Inc. (PFE US) reported strong financial performance in Q4 2025, with revenue of $17.6 billion and adjusted net income of $3.8 billion. Despite a slight year-over-year revenue decline in FY25 to $62.6 billion, the company's operational revenue excluding pandemic-related products grew by 6%, highlighting the strength of its core business. Adjusted diluted EPS increased by 4% to $3.22, driven by successful cost reduction initiatives.

Pfizer has reaffirmed its 2026 revenue guidance of $59.5 billion–$62.5 billion and adjusted EPS of $2.80–$3.00. The firm anticipates a catalyst-rich year in 2026, with pivotal data readouts from its obesity pipeline and oncology programs. These milestones are expected to significantly impact the company's valuation.

Main Points

• Robust Q4 2025 Results: Revenue of $17.6 billion, slightly below the estimate of $18.1 billion, but adjusted net income of $3.8 billion outperformed the estimate of $3.3 billion.
• FY25 Performance: Total revenue reached $62.6 billion, a 2% decline YoY, but operational revenue excluding pandemic products grew by 6%.
• EPS Growth: FY25 adjusted diluted EPS rose 4% to $3.22, showing successful execution of cost-cutting measures.
• 2026 Guidance: Management has maintained its revenue guidance for 2026 at $59.5 billion–$62.5 billion and adjusted EPS at $2.80–$3.00.
• Pipeline Catalysts: The year 2026 is expected to be a key period for the company, with important data readouts from its obesity and oncology programs.
• Obesity Pipeline: The Phase 2b VESPER-3 study showed that the medium dose of PF'3944 achieved a 12.3% placebo-adjusted weight loss at week 28. The planned Phase 3 high dose (9.6mg monthly) is projected to achieve 15.8% weight loss, which is competitive with tirzepatide. The discontinuation rate due to adverse events was 9.3%, lower than other GLP-1 drugs, indicating good tolerability.
• Oncology Progress: Pfizer is accelerating the development of PF'4404 (PD-1/VEGF) and is combining it with its leading ADC portfolio. The Ph3 program of PF'4404 is progressing, with the 1L CRC study already initiated and three additional trials planned for 2026.
• Valuation and Target Price: The target price for PFE was revised from $36.16 to $35.46 based on a 10-year DCF model with a WACC of 9.95% and a terminal growth rate of 2.0%. The current price is $26.78, indicating a potential upside of 32.4%.

Key Information

• Revenue Projections (US$ million):
  • FY26E: 60,737
  • FY27E: 59,278
  • FY28E: 56,650
• Adjusted Net Profit (US$ million):
  • FY26E: 16,339.8
  • FY27E: 15,865.0
  • FY28E: 15,140.4
• P/E (Adjusted):
  • FY26E: 9.3
  • FY27E: 9.6
  • FY28E: 10.1
• ROE (%):
  • FY26E: 12.4
  • FY27E: 12.8
  • FY28E: 12.5

Financial Highlights

• Shareholding Structure:
  • Vanguard: 9.5%
  • Blackrock: 8.8%
• Market Capitalization: $152,190.7 million
• 12-Month Price Performance:
  • Absolute: 6.4%
  • Relative: 6.2%
• Stock Data:
  • 52-week High/Low: $27.37 / $21.59
  • Total Issued Shares: 5,683.0 million

Valuation Analysis

• DCF Valuation (US$ million):
  • 2026E: 201,515
  • 2027E: 207,725
  • 2028E: 207,188
• Terminal Value (US$ million): 330,965
• Terminal Growth Rate: 2.0%
• WACC: 9.95%
• Cost of Equity: 12.5%
• Cost of Debt: 5.0%
• Equity Beta: 0.85
• Risk-Free Rate: 4.0%
• Market Risk Premium: 10.0%

Sensitivity Analysis

• Terminal Growth Rate Impact:
  • 3.0%: $47.25
  • 2.5%: $44.52
  • 2.0%: $35.46 (current target price)
  • 1.5%: $40.15
  • 1.0%: $38.38

CMBIGM vs. Consensus

• Revenue:
  • FY26E: $60,737 (CMBIGM) vs. $61,075 (Consensus) = -1%
  • FY27E: $59,278 (CMBIGM) vs. $58,752 (Consensus) = +1%
  • FY28E: $56,650 (CMBIGM) vs. $54,076 (Consensus) = +5%
• Gross Profit:
  • FY26E: $45,735 (CMBIGM) vs. $47,228 (Consensus) = -3%
  • FY27E: $44,162 (CMBIGM) vs. $44,769 (Consensus) = -1%
  • FY28E: $41,751 (CMBIGM) vs. $43,008 (Consensus) = -3%
• Operating Profit:
  • FY26E: $18,889 (CMBIGM) vs. $20,080 (Consensus) = -6%
  • FY27E: $17,724 (CMBIGM) vs. $18,968 (Consensus) = -7%
  • FY28E: $16,259 (CMBIGM) vs. $18,159 (Consensus) = -10%
• Attributable Net Profit:
  • FY26E: $10,769 (CMBIGM) vs. $12,681 (Consensus) = -15%
  • FY27E: $11,399 (CMBIGM) vs. $12,447 (Consensus) = -8%
  • FY28E: $11,355 (CMBIGM) vs. $12,694 (Consensus) = -11%
• Adjusted Net Profit:
  • FY26E: $16,340 (CMBIGM) vs. $17,915 (Consensus) = -8%
  • FY27E: $15,865 (CMBIGM) vs. $17,915 (Consensus) = -10%
  • FY28E: $15,140 (CMBIGM) vs. $15,140 (Consensus) = -4%

Analyst Certification

• The research analyst certifies that the views expressed in the report accurately reflect their personal views and that no part of their compensation is related to the report's content.
• The analyst confirms no trading or dealings in the stocks covered in the report within 30 days before the report's date and no plans to do so within 3 days after the report's date.
• The analyst is not an officer of any Hong Kong-listed company mentioned and has no financial interests in them.

CMBIG Ratings

• BUY: Potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months
• HOLD: Potential return of +15% to -10% over the next 12 months
• SELL: Potential loss of over 10% over the next 12 months
• NOT RATED: Not rated by CMBIGM
• OUTPERFORM: Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark
• MARKET-PERFORM: Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark
• UNDERPERFORM: Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark

Important Disclosures

• The report is not tailored for all investors and should not be considered as investment advice.
• Past performance does not guarantee future results.
• The value of investments is uncertain and may fluctuate.
• The report is for the use of intended recipients only and may not be reproduced without prior written consent.
• CMBIGM may have conflicts of interest and does not assume responsibility for the report's objectivity.