2025-05-08-Jefferies-面条公司（NDLS）_在本应出色的同店销售额年份中客流量好转；一些成本是暂时的_9页_150kb

USA Restaurants: Equity Research - Noodles & Company

Overview

Noodles & Company is a fast-casual restaurant chain focusing on fresh, globally-inspired noodles and pasta dishes. Based in Broomfield, CO, the company owns most of its over 450 system-wide units across 30 states and Washington DC.

Financial Performance

• Recent 1Q25 Same-Store Sales (SSS) unexpectedly beat consensus estimates (4.4% vs. expected 3.8%), driven by improved traffic (+1.9%) and higher average check (+2.8%).
• The improvement in SSS accelerated mid-March following the introduction of new menu items (5 dishes, ~2/3 of menu refreshed), with SSS trending ~"MSD%" in April.
• In contrast, Revenue Same-Store (RSM) missed consensus (-10.3% vs. Consensus -12.7%), primarily due to higher Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) linked to quality investments and obsolescent menu items, and elevated marketing/operational costs.
• The FY 2025 RSM guidance was lowered slightly to 12%-14%.
• Despite the RSM miss and a lower price target ($2.50 vs. $2.75), the 2025 SSS outlook remains "raised" to 4.9%, with a particular acceleration expected in Q2 (5.3%).

Analyst View

• Jefferies maintains a "Buy" rating on Noodles & Company.
• The company's constructive traffic momentum and tangible drivers for improvement are viewed favorably.
• While valuations appear depressed, the potential for upside ("relative outperformer") despite the challenging environment is noted, suggesting market underappreciation.
• Price target set at $2.50, reflecting ~10x 2026E EBITDA.
• Innovation (menu, marketing), quality investments, and loyalty programs are key positive themes. Operational changes and DE&I are mentioned as sustainability focus areas.

Risks

• Sustainability: Labor practices impact talent attraction/retention, customer experience, and future growth.
• Margin Leverage: Sustainability of SSS gains through improved margins and operational profitability is a key risk.